Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Premier League Predictions
Two of the top five in the Premier League meet on Friday evening. Fifth placed Aston Villa are home to Liverpool who are a place above them but only on goal difference. There have been several recent stalemates between The Villans and the Reds and our match prediction believes another draw is on the way.
Aston Villa have an exciting end to the season lined up. With two league games to play they are four points above sixth place. A win here will see them qualify for the Champions League after missing out this season. Another chance to qualify will come when they play in the Europa League final.
Liverpool can also confirm their place in next season's Champions League if they can win this match. That would also virtually guarantee them a fourth place finish due to their goal difference. Like their opponents though, they failed to win their last league match. Can they get back into winning ways at Villa Park?
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Aston Villa v Liverpool Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.9 | 3.45 | 2.45 |
|
|
2.74 | 3.36 | 2.56 |
|
|
2.86 | 3.38 | 2.45 |
|
|
2.7 | 3.4 | 2.55 |
|
|
2.7 | 3.45 | 2.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Aston Villa and Liverpool?
Our prediction for the Aston Villa vs Liverpool match is: draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 15/05/2026 between Aston Villa and Liverpool in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 58.1% for a win of Aston Villa against Liverpool with odds of 2.97 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Aston Villa vs Liverpool is 12.41% with odds of 3.6 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 29.49% chance ⭐ for a win of Liverpool vs Aston Villa with odds of 2.6 at Betway.
Aston Villa - Liverpool Prediction and Best Odds:
| Aston Villa Liverpool Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 58.1% | 2.97 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.81% | 2 at Roobet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 57.5% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Aston Villa/Aston Villa | 27.56% | 4.5 at Bet365 |
Aston Villa vs Liverpool Form
Aston Villa and Liverpool's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
65 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | +7 |
|
5
|
60 | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | +10 |
Aston Villa and Liverpool Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Premier League
7 May 2026 - Europa League
3 May 2026 - Premier League
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 May 2026 - Europa League
3 May 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
22 Mar 2026 - Premier League
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Premier League
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
27 Mar 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 May 2026 - Premier League
3 May 2026 - Premier League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 May 2026 - Premier League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
14 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
8 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
Aston Villa vs Liverpool Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
50 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
19 Feb 2025 - Premier League
9 Nov 2024 - Premier League
13 May 2024 - Premier League
3 Sept 2023 - Premier League
20 May 2023 - Premier League
Aston Villa - Liverpool: Form Analysis
Aston Villa have two chances to ensure they play in the Champions League next season. The first is via their final position in the Premier League and a win over Liverpool on Friday will ensure the Lions make it through. The second will come in the Europa League final.
Villa have been strong at home this season.
Villa were held to a 2-2 draw at Burnley in their most recent fixture. That came just three days after they beat Nottingham Forest 4-0 at home in their Europa League semi-final second leg. The Villans have won 11 home Premier League fixtures this season but have been beaten five times.
Three of their last four home league games have been won, the other being a home loss to Spurs.
Liverpool also drew their last Premier League game as the Reds were held to a 1-1 home draw by Chelsea. They have gone two games without a win and have suffered eight away league losse this season with seven victories.
Five of their last six away matches in all competitions have been lost. The other was an important 2-1 win at Everton. They beat Villa 2-0 in the reverse fixture but three of the last six matches and the last two at Villa Park have ended level. A draw on Friday could well mean UCL qualification goes down to the last day of the season.
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Aston Villa against Liverpool Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
M. Bizot
DefenderI. Maatsen
Douglas Luiz
L. Bogarde
A. Garcia
R. Barkley
L. Bailey
J. Sancho
T. Abraham
F. Woodman
DefenderE. Mor Talla Ndiaye
A. Robertson
MidfielderF. Chiesa
F. Wirtz
J. Mcconnell
T. Nyoni
ForwardW. Wright
M. Salah
Missing players
B. Kamara
A. Onana
ForwardAlysson
Alisson
DefenderC. Bradley
S. Bajcetic
G. Leoni
MidfielderW. Endo
ForwardH. Ekitike
Aston Villa & Liverpool Squad Analysis
The Villans will be going all out to ensure that Champions League qualification is achieved this weekend. Their qualification being confirmed this weekend would also mean a weakened line-up can be fielded in their last game of the season, helping them with their Europa League final preparations.
Emiliano Buendia is in good form at present with two goals in his last three games. He was on the bench at Burnley last weekend but is expected to start this game against Liverpool. Also in good scoring form is Ollie Watkins with nine goals and three assists in his last 13 games.
Liverpool also want to avoid needing something from their final league fixture. Unlike Villa, the Reds don't have a European final as a safety net. They will again be without Conor Bradley and Hugo Ekitike for this match.
Isak may start this match.
Checks will also be made on the soon to leave Mo Salah, Florian Wirtz and Ibrahima Konate and Alisson. Alexander Isak began the home game against Chelsea on the bench but did come on during the game, It's likely he will be in the starting line-up at Villa Park.
Most goals and assists
Aston Villa
Liverpool
O. Watkins
(16 Goals)
H. Ekitike
(11 Goals)
L. Digne
(6 Assists)
,
M. Rogers
(6 Assists)
M. Salah
(7 Assists)
, 
D. Szoboszlai
(7 Assists)
Aston Villa - Liverpool Key Points
- Both clubs drew their last Premier League fixture.
- The last two Aston Villa home games against Liverpool have both ended in a draw.
- Aston Villa have only won one of their last five games.
- Liverpool have lost five of their six away matches.
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Our Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction
Both of these clubs are in the top five but not in the best of form at present. Villa's only recent win was in the Europa League, while five of Liverpool's last six away fixtures have ended in defeat. Can either side be backed to take advantage of the weaknesses being shown by their opponents?
A draw might not be the most disastrous result for the two clubs. A lot will depend on how chasing clubs such as Bournemouth and Birighton fare later in the weekend. Our main Aston Villa v Liverpool prediction is a draw.
Aston Villa vs Liverpool Alternative Predictions
Ollie Watkins scores
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Aston Villa Liverpool
| Aston Villa vs Liverpool | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 3.49 | 2.97 | -14.9% |
| Draw | 4.16 | 3.6 | -13.5% |
| Liverpool wins | 2.05 | 2.6 | +26.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Aston Villa is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 14.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 28.7% and is now 33.7% (5.0%)
Aston Villa vs Liverpool - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
