Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Steve Ashfield | in Premier League Predictions
Arsenal will become Premier League champions if they win their final two fixtures. The first of them sees the league leaders hosting Burnley who are 19th in the table and already relegated to the Championship With a final game away to Crystal Palace, the Gunners will be confident of ending their long wait to win the Premier League title. A win by a wide margin is the best result Arsenal can get against the Clarets and that's just what our prediction believes will happen.
The Gunners lead Manchester City by two points with a couple of games remaining. Their goal difference is one below that of City but this match against Burnley is an ideal opportunity for them to rectify that situation.
Burnley are 58 points behind their opponents. Arsenal's home league points total is even double that lowly figure achieved by the away side. The Clarets have gone 11 games without a win and it would be the surprise of the season if they were to win this match.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Arsenal v Burnley Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.12 | 9.6 | 24 |
|
|
1.08 | 10.5 | 29 |
|
|
1.08 | 11 | 29 |
|
|
1.09 | 10 | 26 |
|
|
1.09 | 9.6 | 25 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Arsenal and Burnley?
Our prediction for the Arsenal vs Burnley match is: Arsenal wins to nil.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/05/2026 between Arsenal and Burnley in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 65.76% for a win of Arsenal against Burnley with odds of 1.12 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arsenal vs Burnley is 16.95% with odds of 12.3 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 17.29% chance ⭐ for a win of Burnley vs Arsenal with odds of 32 at Shangrila.
Arsenal - Burnley Prediction and Best Odds:
| Arsenal Burnley Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 65.76% | 1.12 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.81% | |
| Both Team To Score: No | 53.75% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Arsenal/Arsenal | 37.16% | 1.44 at Bet365 |
Arsenal vs Burnley Form
Arsenal and Burnley's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
85 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 |
|
19
|
22 | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | -37 |
Arsenal and Burnley Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Premier League
5 May 2026 - Champions League
2 May 2026 - Premier League
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 May 2026 - Champions League
2 May 2026 - Premier League
25 Apr 2026 - Premier League
15 Apr 2026 - Champions League
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
22 Mar 2026 - Carabao Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Premier League
29 Apr 2026 - Champions League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
7 Apr 2026 - Champions League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Premier League
1 May 2026 - Premier League
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Premier League
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
11 Apr 2026 - Premier League
16 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 May 2026 - Premier League
19 Apr 2026 - Premier League
23 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
9 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
3 Mar 2026 - Premier League
Arsenal vs Burnley Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
17 Feb 2024 - Premier League
11 Nov 2023 - Premier League
23 Jan 2022 - Premier League
18 Sept 2021 - Premier League
6 Mar 2021 - Premier League
Arsenal - Burnley: Form Analysis
Arsenal needed a late goal at West Ham to win their last match. That took them five points clear at the top of the table, but Manchester City narrowed the gap to two with a midweek home win over Crystal Palace. The Gunners can again go five clear if they win this match.
They have won their last three matches and have kept clean sheets in five of the last seven. Since their away loss to Manchester City, Arsenal have gone five games without defeat and clinched their place in the UCL final against PSG.
Arsenal are difficult to score against at home.
14 of their 18 home league games have been won this season with only a couple of defeats. The last three have all been won to nil and before that they drew 0-0 with Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League. The reverse fixture saw them win 2-0 at Burnley.
The away side are already making plans for next season back in the Championship. The Clarets have struggled all season with just four wins and have been beaten on 23 occasions. They have gone 11 games without a win but drew 2-2 at home with Aston Villa last weekend.
On the road, Burnley have only won two away league matches with a dozen defeats. They conceded ten goals in their last three away matches. Four of their last five games played against Arsenal have seen them fail to get on the scoresheet.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Arsenal against Burnley Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderP. Hincapie
M. Dowman
M. Zubimendi
M. Lewis-Skelly
N. Madueke
G. Martinelli
V. Gyokeres
G. Jesus
M. Dubravka
DefenderB. Humphreys
Q. Hartman
J. Worrall
MidfielderJ. Laurent
J. Ward-Prowse
Z. Amdouni
J. Bruun Larsen
M. Edwards
Missing players
B. White
J. Timber
MidfielderM. Merino
J. Beyer
MidfielderJ. Cullen
Arsenal & Burnley Squad Analysis
Arsenal play their final home league game of the season against Burnley. A win is vital for them as they close in on winning the Premier League title. They will have to do so without Ben White who was injured in their 1-0 win at West Ham and he won't be playing again this season.
Mosquera may come into the side.
Cristian Mosquera is likely to take his place rather than try out Declan Rice again. Riccardo Calaflori was taken off at half time in that win over the Hammers. It's hoped that he will be fit to play against Burnley, but Arsenal may decide not to risk him and save the defender for their final match against Crystal Palace.
Martin Odegaard made an assist against West Ham and could start against Burnley. Arsenal know that two wins will give them the title but it would be important for them to get a big win and go ahead of City on goal difference just in case they were to slip up against Palace.
The away side may be without Hannibal Mejbri who was injured against Aston Villa last weekend. Connor Roberts is close to making his comeback after being out for the past year. They will continue to be missing Josh Cullen and Jordan Beyer.
Most goals and assists
Arsenal
Burnley
V. Gyokeres
(14 Goals)
Z. Flemming
(11 Goals)
L. Trossard
(6 Assists)
, 
M. Odegaard
(6 Assists)
Q. Hartman
(5 Assists)
Arsenal - Burnley Key Points
- Arsenal have kept clean sheets in their last four home games.
- Burnley have lost 23 league games this season.
- Arsenal have won their last three matches.
- Burnley have failed to score against Arsenal in four of their last five meetings.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction
Two more wins and Arsenal cannot be caught at the top of the Premier League. They are in good form at present with three successive victories. The Gunners aren't scoring too many goals themselves but they are a difficult side to score against.
Burnley are already getting ready for another season back in the Championship. Relegation has looked likely for them all season with just four wins. Their record against Arsenal is equally poor with no wins since 2020 and a lack of goals being scored. Our main Arsenal v Burnley prediction is Arsenal wins to nil.
Arsenal vs Burnley Alternative Predictions
Arsenal wins
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arsenal Burnley
| Arsenal vs Burnley | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 1.11 | 1.12 | +0.9% |
| Draw | 10 | 12.3 | +23.0% |
| Burnley wins | 25 | 32 | +28.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 0.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 90.1% and is now 89.3% (-0.8%)
Arsenal vs Burnley - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
