Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Hamburg Open
ATP - ATP Hamburg Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in Tennis Predictions
The only two remaining seeds in the Hamburg Open meet in the semi-final. Third seed Alex de Minaur takes on sixth-seeded Tommy Paul in this outdoor clay court tournament. The players are closely matched and more than 21.5 games is our prediction.
The winner will face either qualifier Ignacio Buse or lucky loser Aleksandar Kovacevic in Saturday's final.
A win for Alex de Minaur will take the Australian into his first ever clay court final. It's his best run on this surface in 2026, previously reaching the last eight in Monte Carlo. His opening two matches against Francisco Cerundolo and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina both went to a deciding set.
Thursday's quarter-final saw him defeat Luciano Darderi for the loss of only three games, all in set two.
He leads Paul 5-1 in previous meetings but they are 1-1 on clay.
Tommy Paul has already won the US Clay Court Championships this year. The American hasn’t fared too well in Europe and hadn’t made a quarter-final until this week. He had a tough second round match against Tomas Martin Etcheverry with three-and-a-half hours needed to defeat his opponent.
It was smoother progress in Thursday’s quarter-final as he defeated Daniel Altmaier in straight sets, losing seven games.
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Alex De Minaur v Tommy Paul Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.61 | 2.31 |
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|
1.65 | 2.23 |
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|
1.62 | 2.3 |
|
|
1.58 | 2.26 |
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1.58 | 2.26 |
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Who will win the Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul match is: more than 21.5 games.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul game on 22/05/2026 of the current ATP Hamburg Open season:
- Alex De Minaur has a 48.93% chance to win against Tommy Paul according to Betwinner ⭐ with the odds of 1.65.
- Tommy Paul has a 51.07% probability of winning facing Alex De Minaur ⭐ with odds of 2.45 at Shangrila.
Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Alex De Minaur has a 48.93 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Alex De Minaur | 48.93 % |
| Tommy Paul | 51.07 % |
Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul Form
Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
21 May 2026 - ATP Hamburg Open
20 May 2026 - ATP Hamburg Open
18 May 2026 - ATP Hamburg Open
8 May 2026 - ATP Italian Open
24 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
15 Apr 2026 - ATP Barcelona
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
21 May 2026 - ATP Hamburg Open
19 May 2026 - ATP Hamburg Open
17 May 2026 - ATP Hamburg Open
10 May 2026 - ATP Italian Open
8 May 2026 - ATP Italian Open
24 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
13 May 2025 - ATP Italian Open
3 Aug 2023 - ATP Los Cabos Open
Alex De Minaur - Tommy Paul Key Points
- More than 21,5 games were played in seven of the last ten matches played by de Minaur.
- Paul has played more than 21.5 games in six of Paul's last ten matches.
- More than 21.5 games were played in five of the six previous matches between these two players.
- A 7-5 set would help our prediction and one was played in both of the two previous clay court matches between Paul and de Minaur.
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Our Alex De Minaur vs Tommy Paul Prediction
It would be a massive boost for Alex de Minaur if he was to reach his first ever clay court tournament just before Roland Garros. He came through two tough opening matches in Hamburg and then put in a good show against Luciano Darderi.
Tommy Paul won their last match on clay. That was played in Rome and he's already won one clay court tournament this year. He's also had a mix of tough matches and a good quarter-final performance. Our Alex de Minaur v Tommy Paul prediction is more than 21.5 games.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
