AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction & Betting Tips - Serie A
Italy - Serie A
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Joseph King | in Serie A Predictions
The Champions League race is heating up in the Italian Serie A as fourth-place AC Milan hosts seventh-placed Atalanta for matchday 36. Milan have been misfiring lately, scoring only a single goal in their last five matches. And with both the Rossoneri and La Dea trending strongly towards unders throughout the 2025-26 season, our prediction focuses on the total goals market.
The hosts are coming dangerously close to dropping out of the top four after a disastrous run of form has seen them lose four of their last seven games (W2, D1). As a result, Milan come into Sunday’s matchup leading fifth-place Roma by three points and trailing third-place Juventus by one point (although with a game in hand).
A major cause for Milan’s downturn has been their recent anemic attacking output. Il Diavolo has now failed to find the net in four of its last five matches, netting only a single goal during that stretch. This was on full display last weekend, as Milan fell to a 2-0 away defeat to Sassuolo.
Atalanta need a miracle to qualify for Europe at this stage, as they trail sixth-place Como by seven points with three games remaining.
The visitors are winless in their last five matches across all competitions, with their last victory coming in early April. Atlanta was held to a 0-0 draw at home against Genoa last weekend, despite creating 1.96 xG and two clear cut chances.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
AC Milan v Atalanta Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.22 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.21 | 3.28 | 3.38 |
|
|
2.21 | 3.28 | 3.38 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.18 | 3.25 | 3.3 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between AC Milan and Atalanta?
Our prediction for the AC Milan vs Atalanta match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/05/2026 between AC Milan and Atalanta in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 32.09% for a win of AC Milan against Atalanta with odds of 2.28 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between AC Milan vs Atalanta is 37.88% with odds of 3.5 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 30.02% chance ⭐ for a win of Atalanta vs AC Milan with odds of 3.51 at 888Starz.
AC Milan - Atalanta Prediction and Best Odds:
| AC Milan Atalanta Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 37.88% | 3.5 at LSbet |
| Under 2.5 | 55.77% | 1.98 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 55.83% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 20.88% | 5.5 at Bet365 |
AC Milan vs Atalanta Form
AC Milan and Atalanta's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5
|
70 | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | +18 |
|
7
|
59 | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | +15 |
AC Milan and Atalanta Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Serie A
26 Apr 2026 - Serie A
19 Apr 2026 - Serie A
11 Apr 2026 - Serie A
6 Apr 2026 - Serie A
21 Mar 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Apr 2026 - Serie A
11 Apr 2026 - Serie A
21 Mar 2026 - Serie A
8 Mar 2026 - Serie A
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
18 Feb 2026 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Serie A
19 Apr 2026 - Serie A
6 Apr 2026 - Serie A
15 Mar 2026 - Serie A
1 Mar 2026 - Serie A
13 Feb 2026 - Serie A
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Serie A
27 Apr 2026 - Serie A
22 Apr 2026 - Coppa Italia
18 Apr 2026 - Serie A
11 Apr 2026 - Serie A
6 Apr 2026 - Serie A
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Serie A
22 Apr 2026 - Coppa Italia
11 Apr 2026 - Serie A
22 Mar 2026 - Serie A
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - Serie A
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Apr 2026 - Serie A
18 Apr 2026 - Serie A
6 Apr 2026 - Serie A
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Serie A
4 Mar 2026 - Coppa Italia
AC Milan vs Atalanta Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
28 Oct 2025 - Serie A
20 Apr 2025 - Serie A
6 Dec 2024 - Serie A
25 Feb 2024 - Serie A
10 Jan 2024 - Coppa Italia
9 Dec 2023 - Serie A
AC Milan against Atalanta Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Substitutes
M. Pittarella
P. Terracciano
DefenderP. Estupinan
D. Odogu
Z. Athekame
A. Jashari
Y. Fofana
C. Nkunku
N. Fullkrug
F. Rossi
M. Sportiello
DefenderR. Bellanova
M. Bakker
H. Ahanor
O. Kossounou
R. Obric
MidfielderY. Musah
L. Samardzic
M. Pasalic
K. Sulemana
G. Scamacca
D. Vavassori
Missing players
F. Tomori
MidfielderL. Modric
L. Bernasconi
Most goals and assists
AC Milan
Atalanta
R. Leao
(9 Goals)
G. Scamacca
(10 Goals)
, 
N. Krstovic
(10 Goals)
A. Rabiot
(4 Assists)
, 
C. Pulisic
(4 Assists)
,
S. Ricci
(4 Assists)
N. Krstovic
(5 Assists)
, 
N. Zalewski
(5 Assists)
, 
C. De Ketelaere
(5 Assists)
AC Milan - Atalanta Key Points
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 22 of Atalanta's 35 Serie A matches this season.
- AC Milan have seen the same in 21 of their 35 Serie A fixtures.
- Milan have failed to score in four of their last five, netting only one goal during that stretch.
- The hosts created just 0.24 expected goals and 0 clear cut chances in their most recent outing.
- Three of the last four matchups between these two teams have seen under 2.5, including the 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction
Both teams come into this one on a tough stretch of form, which suggests that we aren’t going to get the most open, attacking type of match. Allegri has serious concerns with his attack as they’ve simply been unable to put the ball in the net with any consistency as of late.
More worrying are the underlying stats, which show that Milan have only eclipsed 0.85 xG once in their last five outings. Our AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction: less than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis AC Milan Atalanta
| AC Milan vs Atalanta | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan wins | 2.11 | 2.28 | +8.1% |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.5 | -0.6% |
| Atalanta wins | 3.89 | 3.51 | -9.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 0.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 28.4% and is now 28.6% (0.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
