NBA Finals Betting: Nuggets Still Favoured
by Joseph King | by Joseph King
Denver Miss Their Chance to Go Up 2-0
The Nuggets got off to the perfect start in this series after earning a 104-93 Game 1 win at the Pepsi Center in Denver. It was another virtuoso performance from two-time MVP Nikola Jokić who is establishing himself as the best player in the world. Jokić finished with 27 points, 10 rebounds and 14 assists for an incredible ninth triple-double of the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
However, Miami would respond with a strong performance in the following game. The Heat held on for a 111-108 Game 2 win as +8.5 point underdogs to even the series up at one game a piece. They will have accomplished what they ultimately wanted from their trip to Denver, stealing home court advantage away from the heavily favoured Nuggets. We now head to the Kaseya Center in Miami for Games 3 and 4 before heading back to Denver in a series that will at least see a Game 5. Despite stealing home court, the oddsmakers still are not placing a whole lot of faith in the Heat to pull off the upset.
Denver remains the favourites with betting odds of 1.35 to win their first ever championship. Miami, meanwhile, fetch a price of 3.3 to win their first NBA title since the 2013 season.
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Miami’s Game 2 Adjustments
Miami’s strategy for Game 2 worked to a tee. The Heat realized that it is impossible to completely neutralize Nikola Jokić but they could certainly decrease his influence. Therefore, they focused on taking away the brilliant passing aspect of Jokić’s game. The result was the big Serbian center scoring a game-high 41 points but Denver putting up only 108 points total – tied for their third-lowest amount of the playoffs so far. Jokić also finished with just four assists, his lowest total since April 4th and the first time he failed to register at least five assists in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Denver is simply a better team when the offense is flowing and the ball is moving through the two-time MVP. The Nuggets have an all-time record of 112-137 (.450 win percentage) when Nikola Jokić records less than six assists per game. This is in comparison to an incredible 210-78 (.729 win percentage) record when Jokić has over six assists. Denver head coach Mike Malone will certainly make adjustments for Game 3 as the chess match that is the NBA Finals continues on. It will be interesting to see if Heat coach Erik Spoelstra sticks to his Game 2 strategy or if they attempt to double-team Jokić again. You can catch all the Game 3 action as well as the rest of the Finals by using our NBA Livescore tool!
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Should Nuggets Bettors Be Worried?
If you checked out our NBA Finals Preview article, you’ll know that we like the Nuggets to win this series rather comfortably. So, now that the series is 1-1 and heading to Miami for the next two games, is it time to panic for Denver backers? The short answer – no. Denver is the still deeper, more talented team and has the best player in the NBA at the moment in Nikola Jokić. That’s not to take anything away from the Heat. They have likely the best mentality in the NBA Playoffs with the league’s biggest dog in Jimmy Butler. The Heat have proven their pedigree multiple times in this postseason by knocking off the Bucks in five games and pulling out a gritty Game 7 victory in Boston.
However, they also needed a lot to go their way in the Game 2 NBA Finals win.
The Nuggets would ultimately blow an eight-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Miami shot 48.6% from three in their 111-108 win at the Pepsi Center. Their 17 made three-pointers was the highest amount they have put up in the last six games. It’s also only the fourth time in 22 postseason games that they’ve reached that number. It’s worth noting that Miami is only averaging 9.3 made threes in the games directly following a 17-or-more made three-point performance.
A concern for the Miami Heat could also be Jimmy Butler’s recent performances. Butler looks to have slowed down after his Herculean effort earlier in these playoffs. He’s averaging just 17 points per game in these NBA Finals on just 39% shooting. If the Heat are to pull off this upset and lift the Larry O’Brien trophy, Butler will have to get back to his best. Unfortunately for Heat fans, the 33-year-old’s tank might be running on close-to-empty.
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Updated NBA Finals Odds
Odds to win the NBA championship:
- Denver Nuggets - 1.35
- Miami Heat - 3.3
Odds to win the NBA Finals MVP:
- Nikola Jokić - 1.37
- Jimmy Butler - 5.5
- Bam Adebayo - 7.0
- Jamal Murray - 34.0
- Gabe Vincent - 34.0
- Caleb Martin - 126.0
All odds taken from Bet365.
Our previous tip of Nikola Jokić to be the top Finals points scorer is in good shape as Jokić has already racked up 68 points. If you missed the boat on the -1.5 Nuggets series price at the start of the series, now could be a good point to jump in at odds of 2.1. This bet means that Denver would have to win this series at least 4-2. The way things are playing out, Jokić is almost a guarantee to win the MVP award should his Nuggets lift the trophy. On the other hand, if you are a believer in the Miami Heat, Bam Adebayo to win MVP could be a potentially more lucrative way given his strong performances in the first two games.
See the latest NBA Finals odds at Bet365!
