International - Test Matches
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by Steve Ashfield in Rugby Predictions
Life isn’t getting any easier for Wales. After a narrow (and very welcome) win over Japan last weekend, they now face New Zealand who will want to get back into winning ways after losing to England last Saturday. Time for our match prediction.
Wales finally ended their ten-match home losing streak last weekend when beating Japan. A late penalty gave them a one-point victory and the way some fans celebrated you'd have thought they'd just won the Rugby World Cup. Just imagine how they'll celebrate if managing to beat New Zealand for the first time this century. They will need to vastly improve and be considerably better disciplined if that is to happen.
New Zealand got off to a great start against England last weekend but were well beaten in the end. The All-Blacks will not want to return home with another defeat and that may well make life even more difficult for Wales.
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The Best Betting Odds for Wales v New Zealand Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
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15 | 51 | 1.02 |
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15 | 61 | 1.01 |
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17 | 51 | 1.01 |
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17 | 46 | 1.02 |
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16 | 60 | 1 |
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Wales vs New Zealand Form
Wales and New Zealand Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
9 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
11 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
4 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
15 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
8 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
9 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
15 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
22 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
17 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
11 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
4 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
8 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
8 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
31 Jan 2025 - Six Nations
13 Jul 2024 - Test Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
8 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
1 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
4 Oct 2025 - The Rugby Championship
26 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
13 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
26 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
13 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
6 Sept 2025 - The Rugby Championship
19 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
12 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
15 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
8 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
1 Nov 2025 - Test Matches
4 Oct 2025 - The Rugby Championship
23 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
16 Aug 2025 - The Rugby Championship
Wales vs New Zealand Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
5 Nov 2022 - Test Matches
30 Oct 2021 - Test Matches
1 Nov 2019 - Rugby World Cup
Wales - New Zealand: Form Analysis
Wales had not won a home Test match in 833 days before beating Japan last weekend. Another loss looked to be on the cards before a late penalty was successfully scored and the celebrations began.
Japan were also beaten by Wales during the summer. They remain the only nation that Wales have beaten in a Test match since a pool victory over Georgia in the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Before last weekend's win, they had lost 52-28 at home to Argentina.
72 years and counting.
It was back in 1953 just six days before Christmas Day when Wales last won a match against New Zealand. The aim this weekend isn't just to try and build on the win over Japan but to avoid a 34th straight defeat by New Zealand.
The All-Blacks have scored 109 points in their last two visits to Cardiff, last playing in 2022. Last weekend's defeat ended a run of four consecutive wins, including victories over Ireland (after trailing at the break) and Scotland.
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Wales & New Zealand Squad Analysis
Wales are giving Ospreay's Harri Deaves his first cap this weekend. The flanker comes into the starting line-up to replace Olly Cracknell who is unable to play due to injury. Another debutant will be Brodie Coghlan if he comes on as a replacement.
Wales have made five changes to their starting line-up.
Wales won last weekend (only just though) and that was a step in the right direction. The inclusion of Deaves is one of five changes that have been made from the side that defeated Japan. One of those is due to Josh Adams being suspended and he will be replaced by Tom Rogers on the wing.
Making his first start since 2023 will be the Scarlets centre Joe Hawkins who will replace Ben Thomas. Rhys Carre and Keiron Assiratti were on the replacements bench last weekend but start this weekend.
New Zealand have made 12 changes from the starting line-up named to face England last weekend. Ardie Savea and Beauden Barrett are among those players who have been rested for this game in Cardiff.
Wales - New Zealand Key Points
- Wales haven't beaten New Zealand since 1953.
- New Zealand have scored 109 points in their last two visits to Cardiff, topping 50 points in each game.
- New Zealand have won four of their last five games.
- In Test matches, Wales have only beaten Japan since the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
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Our Wales vs New Zealand Prediction
Wales want to build on last weekend's win over Japan but another win doesn't look likely. They struggled to get the victory over Japan needing a last-gasp penalty to just win the game. Now comes a much tougher test against a country they haven't beaten since the late Queen Elizabeth II was crowned.
New Zealand had won their first two matches on their European tour before losing a lead against England. They have won their last 33 matches against Wales and another win is fully expected. Our main Wales v New Zealand prediction is New Zealand wins on a -20.5 handicap.
Wales vs New Zealand - Other Interesting Predictions
Will Jordan to score a try
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Wales vs New Zealand match : Frequently asked questions
Wales will be playing the All-Blacks on Saturday November 22. It’s due to get underway at 15:10 UK time.
TNT Sports are showing Wales v New Zealand live and you will be required to take out a subscription to this channel. Visit our Rugby Test Matches livescore to access live text commentary on the game and updated statistics.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
