ATP - ATP Cincinnati Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Cincinnati Open Predictions
Luca Nardi could not have imagined playing second seed Carlos Alcaraz in the last 16 of the outdoor hard court Cincinnati Open. Nardi has made the most of being reinstated as a lucky loser after being beaten in the qualifying rounds. Time for us to make our match prediction.
Alexander Blockx beat Nardi in the final qualifying round but then withdrawals saw Nardi back as a lucky loser. Already this year he's reached a Masters quarter-final as a lucky loser but it'll be a massive shock if he can get past Carlos Alcaraz.
So far in the main draw, Nardi has beaten Agustin Thiago Tirante, 24th seed Denis Shapovalov and in round three, 16th-seeded Jakub Mensik. He was 6-2, 2-1 up when his opponent retired. Nardi is now 82nd in the live rankings.
That's 80 places behind Alcaraz who hasn't had it all his own way so far in this Masters tournament. The Spaniard needed three sets to beat Damir Dzumhir in round two and then lost eight games against Hamad Medjedovic.
A win for Alcaraz will take him into his third Cincinnati quarter-final and fourth on hard courts in 2025 with one title won.
We tip over 17.5 games to be played in this match.
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The Best Betting Odds for Luca Nardi v Carlos Alcaraz Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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11 | 1.05 |
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12 | 1.03 |
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10 | 1.05 |
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11 | 1.05 |
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10 | 1.05 |
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Who will win the Luca Nardi vs Carlos Alcaraz Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Luca Nardi vs Carlos Alcaraz match is: over 17.5 games to be played.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Luca Nardi vs Carlos Alcaraz game on 13/08/2025 of the current ATP Cincinnati Open season:
- Luca Nardi has a 18.65% chance to win against Carlos Alcaraz according to William Hill ⭐ with the odds of 12.
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 81.35% probability of winning facing Luca Nardi ⭐ with odds of 1.06 at Vbet.
Luca Nardi vs Carlos Alcaraz Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Luca Nardi has a 18.65 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Luca Nardi | 18.65 % |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 81.35 % |
Luca Nardi vs Carlos Alcaraz Form
Luca Nardi and Carlos Alcaraz Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
12 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
10 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
8 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
6 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
5 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
1 Jul 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
12 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
10 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
13 Jul 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
11 Jul 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
8 Jul 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
6 Jul 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Luca Nardi vs Carlos Alcaraz Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
19 Feb 2025 - ATP Qatar Open
Luca Nardi - Carlos Alcaraz Key Points
- These two players have met once before. That was on a hard court earlier this year and the match went to three sets.
- In best-of-three sets matches, there have been over 17.5 games in the last 21 matches Alcaraz has played.
- Over 17.5 games have been played in the last three completed matches (retirements excluded) Nardi has played in this tournament.
- Nardi's five matches this week have averaged 20.4 games each.
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Our Luca Nardi vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Luca Nardi thought it was time to pack his bags when losing in the final qualifying round. Then player withdrawals saw that packing not be required and he was in the main draw. He's had a turn around in his fortunes and now faces Carlos Alcaraz in the last 16 of the Cincinnati Open.
He will gain some confidence from the fact he took Alcaraz to a third set earlier this year. Alcaraz has had a few problems in this tournament so far with one set lost. Our Luca Nardi v Carlos Alcaraz prediction is over 17.5 games to be played.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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