Italy Serie A Predictions & Betting tips

Find our free Serie A prediction on who will win the title and come out on top in the main matches played in the 2026-27 Italian Football Championship. Full of information for your sports betting!

Serie A presentation and predictions - Italy

The Italian league, known as Serie A, is considered one of the top 5 leagues in the world alongside the English Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1 and the German Bundesliga. That's one of the reasons why Serie A predictions are so popular in the UK and around Europe. Throughout the exciting season, players have the opportunity to bet on the matches of Italy's top 20 clubs. 

From the opening match, scheduled for 23 August 2025, to matchday 38 (set to be played on 24 May 2026), our experts' Serie A predictions are available free of charge to help you place your bets with the bookmakers. Below you will find our general predictions, as well as statistics and tips, on how to make the most of the upcoming Serie A season.

Sign up and bet on Serie A with Stake

2026-27 Serie A prediction: which team will win the Scudetto?

Inter Milan are back to the summit of Italian football after beating out prior champions Napoli to claim their third Scudetto in the last six seasons and their 21st all time. The goal now, will be to defend their Serie A crown for the first time since the legendary treble-winning Jose Mourinho led Inter team in 2009-10.

Cristian Chivu was a huge success in his first season in charge of the Nerazzurri, lifting the league title as well as the Coppa Italia. Inter’s title rivals have all undergone managerial changes: Amorim took over AC Milan, Allegri got the Napoli job following Conte’s departure, Sarri went from Lazio to Atalanta, which then saw Gattuso take the vacant Lazio position.

Inter saw a few of their senior players move on to other teams, and they’ll no doubt be looking to bolster the squad with reinforcements. However, the core of the team that led them to the title is still firmly intact. Lautaro Martinez captains the squad, entering his ninth season with Il Biscione. Elsewhere, star names such as Marcus Thuram, Nicolo Barella, Alessandro Bastoni and current single-season assist record holder Federico Dimarco all return. To start the season, Inter stand out as the clear favourites to finish top of the Serie A come May. 2026-27 Serie A result: Inter Milan champions!

2026-27 Serie A: odds on the favourites

• Inter - 2.00
• Napoli - 5.50
• Juventus - 6.00
• AC Milan - 6.00
• Roma - 11.00
• Atalanta - 34.00
• Como - 41.00
• Lazio - 81.00
• Bologna - 101.00
• Fiorentina - 151.00

Odds taken from Bet365

Italy Serie A Top 4 prediction: who will qualify for the Champions League?

The top four teams in Serie A will qualify for the Champions League, with a possible fifth spot also available depending on Italy's UEFA coefficient ranking for the season.

Last season saw a tight race for the European football spots - only four points separated third place from sixth place. Como was the story of last season’s top four race, a victory on the final day combined with an AC Milan defeat, meant that the lakeside city would sensationally clinch UCL football for the first time in their history. Napoli finished second last season and despite the managerial change, should still have enough talent to secure top four.

Roma are our pick for the third spot. Gasperini's first season delivered a third-place finish and the club's first Champions League qualification since 2018-19, all the more impressive given the devastating striker injury crisis that they had to deal with. With the momentum of their red-hot finish to build upon, there’s every reason to believe that they can carry that over into next season. Juventus round out our top four. Spalletti only arrived in October after Tudor's sacking and still managed 69 points and a Europa League spot. A full pre-season to implement his ideas should see improvement. Our Serie A Top 4 prediction: Inter, Napoli, Roma and Juventus!

Sign up and bet on Serie A with Stake

Italy Serie A Top 5 prediction: who will qualify for the Europa League?

In addition to the Italian Cup winner, the club occupying fifth place in Serie A at the end of the 2025-2026 season will qualify for the UEFA Europa League (2026-2027 edition).

AC Milan were agonisingly close to the top four last season, losing 2 of their final 3 matches, including a 1-2 home defeat to Cagliari on the final day. Como, by contrast, won their last three straight, which ultimately saw them leapfrog Milan on the final day and snatch the last Champions League spot. Ruben Amorim's arrival as head coach brings a new tactical identity, and while adjusting to Italian football may take time, Milan's squad still has enough about it to be in the top 5 race.

As for Como, they'll now have to juggle a Champions League campaign on top of their usual league and cup commitments. As we've often seen in the past, playing every 3 days on a consistent basis can impact domestic performance. Our Serie A Top 5 prediction: AC Milan!

Italy Serie A Top 6 prediction: who will qualify for the Conference League?

​​Finally, the team finishing 6th (or 7th, depending on who wins the Coppa Italia) in Serie A this season will take part in the next edition of the UEFA Europa Conference League.

Our pick is Atalanta. La Dea endured a turbulent 2025-26 campaign, with Jurić sacked in November before Palladino steadied the ship to finish 7th on 59 points. This Atalanta side still has plenty of the talent that saw them battling for the top four under Gasperini, even with Ademola Lookman's departure to Atlético Madrid in the winter window. De Ketelaere, Scamacca, Éderson and Scalvini remain, and Sarri, a proven winner with Serie A and Europa League titles already on his CV, arrives with the tactical pedigree to get the most out of them. Our Serie A Conference League prediction: Atalanta!

Relegation prediction: which Serie A clubs will miss out on survival?

As always, the three teams finishing 18th, 19th and 20th will be relegated to Serie B.

Our first two picks are the promoted sides Monza and Frosinone. Simply put: these squads are currently too thin to compete with the rest of the division on a consistent basis. Monza's squad is valued at just €46.75m, the lowest of the three promoted teams, while Frosinone sit only marginally higher at €51.60m. They'll have to do some significant business before the window ends to add real quality to the team, otherwise the gulf in qualty against the rest of the league could be too wide.

Our third pick is Lecce. Eusebio Di Francesco's side survived on the final day of last season, beating Genoa to pip Cremonese to safety. However, signs suggest that they might not be so fortunate this time around. Lecce actually finished dead last in the 2025-26 season in expected points, and they haven't made any notable transfers yet to suggest that will be any different this time around. ut the underlying numbers tell a shakier story: Opta's expected points model reportedly had Lecce finishing below even relegated Cremonese. Another potentially bad omen is Di Francesco himself; the 56-year-old had previously been relegated with both Frosinone and Venezia before arriving in Lecce. Our Serie A relegation prediction: Monza, Frosinone and Lecce!

Which player will score the most goals?

There's more at stake in the Italian championship than just the collective ones! In fact, one individual accolade is hotly contested in the Serie A every season: that of the top goal scorer (Capocannoniere). In the new 2026-2027 season, which striker will finish top of the Italian league scoring table? Lautaro Martínez is the safe pick to defend his crown. The Inter captain claimed the Capocannoniere with just 17 goals last season, the lowest tally to ever win the award in the current league structure era. With the core of Inter's title-winning attack still intact, there's no reason to believe his output will drop off.

Below is a list of players to watch this season:

• Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan)
• Donyell Malen (Roma)
• Artem Dovbyk (Roma)
• Gonçalo Ramos (AC Milan)
• Marcus Thuram (Inter Milan)
• Anastasios Douvikas (Como)
• Moise Kean (Fiorentina)
• Rasmus Højlund (Napoli)
• Kenan Yildiz (Juventus)

That said, there are a few names to keep an eye on if you're looking for more of a value play. AC Milan shelled out a club-record fee, reportedly over €70 million, to sign Gonçalo Ramos from PSG. This will see the 24-year-old handed the first-choice striker role after being utilised more as a super sub in Paris. Donyell Malen, meanwhile, impressively finished as Roma's top scorer with 14 league goals (in only 20 matches) despite only arriving on loan in January. Should he manage to maintain even close to that same goals per 90 pace, he could run away with the award.

Beginners Guide - how does the Italian football championship work?

As you will have gathered, Serie A is Italy's top division football league, which pits the 20 best Italian clubs against each other via a system of home-and-away fixtures. The first phase takes place between August and December, with all the clubs playing each other for the first time. The process is then repeated between January and May, so that all the clubs play each opponent twice (home and away) for a total of 38 rounds. That's 380 matches per edition of Calcio.

At the final whistle of the competition, certain places have an impact on the clubs:

• The club that finishes first is Italian champion (and qualifies for the Champions League)
• 2nd, 3rd and 4th qualify for the Champions League
• The 5th (and 6th depending on who wins the Italian Cup) qualify for the Europa League
• The 6th-placed club (or 7th depending on who wins the Coppa Italia) qualifies for the Europa Conference League
• 18th, 19th and 20th are relegated to Serie B

Whether at the top or bottom of the table, there is a certain amount at stake in this Italian football championship. All this explains why the Serie A prediction is eagerly awaited before each match by many punters.

Sign up and bet on Serie A with Stake

How to make good predictions on a Serie A match?

In order to make winning predictions on the Italian Serie A, a few good practices are important for punters, such as having a solid knowledge of the competition in question. But that's not enough, and good practice is also necessary. SportyTrader has been specialising in football and Serie A for a number of years now, and offers you its top tips on how to make the best predictions:

• Check the form of each Italian team
• Take into account the latest Serie A statistics
• Rely on expert analysis
• Take into account what is at stake in the Serie A match
• Keep an eye on the list of players absent in Italy

These are our top tips for making the best Serie A predictions. Find out more about each of these points below.

Consult the form of each Italian team

This is probably the most important tip for making a reliable football predictions on the Italian football championship. Indeed, consulting and taking into account the form of the 20 teams is an action that should become mechanical and compulsory in your approach to betting on Serie A. For example, if you want to bet on Napoli but the club hasn't won in 7 games, unlike its opponents who have won 5 in a row, then it would be better to avoid making your bet. On the contrary, double the odds on their opponents! Don't hesitate to follow Serie A matches closely.

As far as this tip is concerned, we think it's important to stress that you shouldn't just look at the scores of recent matches. In fact, it is also very important to follow (closely or remotely) the performances put in by the clubs: possession, Expected Goals (xG), the number of shots attempted, on target and conceded, goalposts hit, etc. A team may have truly dominated its last two opponents, and yet still have lost. A team can genuinely have dominated its last two opponents, and still have lost those games. But that doesn't mean it hasn't played some good games in terms of content.

Take into account the latest Serie A statistics

Second tip from our experts: analyse the Serie A statistics! And what's important is to first get an overview of these figures. On this page, a little further down, you can access the major Serie A statistics, particularly in terms of the number of goals scored with Under/Over.

Secondly, it is also important to have the statistics for the most recent matches of each team in Italy's top flight in order to make the right predictions and place the right bets. Having the most recent stats will give you a much better idea of each club's current form.

Rely on expert analysis

Here's a tip that's vital to the success of your bets on the best sports betting sites. Before you place your bets on the Italian league, taking expert predictions will help you decide whether or not to go ahead with your idea.

At Sportytrader, our tipsters take many aspects of a match into account and analyse a large number of statistics in order to offer you the best, most reliable prediction possible. So don't hesitate to rely on them before betting!

Take into account what's at stake in the Serie A match

For this fourth tip, there will be no statistical analysis, but rather the context in which the match will take place. Is it a derby known to be very hot? Were there any problems in the last match? This aspect is too important and is underestimated by many punters.

For example, an analysis of recent matches between Roma and Lazio shows that tension often takes precedence over the game, and that we rarely see a flurry of goals in this type of encounter. So be careful if you're thinking of trying an 'Over 2.5', for example.

Watch the list of players absent in Italy

Finally, the last piece of advice is obviously very important. Even though football is played 11 against 11, as everyone knows, there are always one or more truly exceptional players on the pitch. These are the types of players that can turn the tide of a match, and are often difficult for coaches to replace when they are absent. This holds especially true at less prestigious clubs or those with a smaller budget and squad.

So before each bet, it's very important to check the squad given by the coach for the match you want to bet on, to see if there are any major absences.

Injury, suspension, poor form, off-the-pitch problems, disagreements... There could be many reasons why a footballer is absent from a match. Don't forget to check all this out before placing any bets with online sports betting sites!

As you will have gathered, our team always takes into account the advice we have just given you when making each Serie A prediction, as well as many other aspects of this competition.

By checking out each of our Serie A predictions, you can be sure of getting the most reliable overall view of the matches. So don't forget to check out our experts' thoughts before each Serie A weekend!

Sign up and bet on Serie A with Stake

What not to do for your Serie A predictions

After the best betting tips to make your predictions a success and have the best chances of winning on all Serie A matches, we now reveal what you should avoid. There are some bad habits you should forget. Below you'll find everything we advise you not to do before making a Serie A football prediction:

• Put aside the analysis of a football match (and Serie A in this particular case)
• Only bet on the big odds
• Don't compare the Calcio odds and take one that is lower than another bookmaker's.
• Take the plunge without any knowledge of the Italian league
• Trying at all costs to make up for losing a bet on Serie A
• Betting too often on live or boosted odds
• Betting too often on your favourite Italian team

All too often, a large number of both beginners and experienced punters fall into one of the habits listed above. So don't forget to put all that to one side before betting on Serie A!

Italy Serie A statistics you need to know for your predictions

In addition to everything we've just described, having a good knowledge of the most important Serie A statistics is also a major factor in the success of your football predictions. Without further ado, here are the key stats to keep in mind when making your Italian league predictions. Note that these are from the last season (2025-26):

• Home win percentage: 39%
• Draw percentage: 26%
• Away win percentage: 35%
• Average goals: 2.43 goals per game
• +0.5 goals: 91%
• -0.5 goals: 9%
• +1.5 goals: 70%
• -1.5 goals: 30%
• +2.5 goals: 46%
• -2.5 goals: 54%
• +3.5 goals: 22%
• -3.5 goals: 78%
• +4.5 goals: 10%
• -4.5 goals: 90%
• Goal timing distribution: 76-90 minutes (22%)
• First half goals: 43%
• Second half goals: 57%
• Average home goals scored: 1.28 per match
• Average away goals scored: 1.15 per match
• “Both teams to score: Yes”: 45%
• Average shots per match: 24.63 shots
• Wins by 2 goals or more (handicap): 32.3% of matches
• Correct score 0-0: 9.5% of matches
• Correct score 1-1: 9.7% of matches
• Most frequent score: 1-0 or 0-1 (20.5% of matches)

When you place your bets on Serie A, you may notice that certain types of bets are to be favoured. Interestingly, away teams had a lot of success in the 2025-26 season, winning 35% of matches, while seeing the home win percentage dip below 40% - somethiing that exceedingly rare across Europe's top leagues! This points to a very competitive league, and is therefore worth keeping in mind if you are looking for opportunities to back an away underdog on the Asian Handicap.

Last season also saw a downturn in goals from 2.56 to 2.43, while also seeing the BTTS hit rate dip to just 45%. Be cautious when backing this market in the upcoming season, and look for spots conducive to goals, such as a live underdog playing at home. As is the case with most leagues, the second half sees more of the scoring, especially the last 15 minutes where teams are often pushing for a winning goal or an equaliser! 

In short: how to make the right Italian Serie A predictions?

In order to have reliable football predictions on the Italian football league, a number of things need to be taken into account as well as carried out. It will be important to analyse each match, for example, but you'll also need to follow all the best practices we've talked about, as well as keeping in mind the general workings of the competition and the major statistics.

If you feel that doing all this will take too much time before each Serie A prediction, remember that all you have to do is consult the predictions of our Italian football and Serie A specialists, who are available before each match.

As a reminder, we offer you a detailed analysis of all 380 matches in the Italian league, completely free of charge and accessible at the top of this page. Find all the Serie A predictions from Sportytrader, ideal help all year round!

Sign up and bet on Serie A with Stake

Our current Serie A predictions - Italy

Our Serie A predictions and betting tips will be available soon. Check back regularly for the latest insights.

Serie A: best odds

If you prefer to focus on the Italian top flight, our Serie A odds comparator is available now (100% free), as is Serie A Livescore. Perfect for following Italian football's elite from A to Z! Our Champions League prediction is also available if you'd like to keep a close eye on the progress of Italian clubs in Europe.