Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Shanghai Masters
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Shanghai Masters Predictions
Unseeded Matteo Arnaldi faces qualifier Bernard Tomic in round one of the outdoor hard court Shanghai Masters. Whoever wins will take on 11th seed Taylor Fritz in round two. Looking at the stats of recent matches played by both players, more than 22.5 games is our prediction.
Arnaldi had been in poor form before the just concluded Japan Open. He beat Rei Sakamoto in the first round in three sets and then lost to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz, but took him to a tie-break in the first set. The win over Sakamoto is the only one he's had in his last five matches.
He has played more than 22.5 games in six of his last seven completed matches played over the best-of-three-sets.
Bernard Tomic is at 185th in the rankings, 147 places below Arnaldi.
He had to win two qualifying matches to reach the main draw of this Masters tournament. He had to go to three sets against Terence Atmane, who eventually retired when 3-5 down in the decider. 22 games were played in his win over Timofey Skatov.
Tomic has a 27-16 record on this surface in 2026 compared to Arnaldi's 3-8. Most of his success has come on the Challenger Tour with one title won in July.
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Bernard Tomic v Matteo Arnaldi Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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2.49 | 1.52 |
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2.52 | 1.55 |
|
|
2.49 | 1.54 |
|
|
2.49 | 1.54 |
|
|
2.5 | 1.53 |
|
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Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi Form
Bernard Tomic and Matteo Arnaldi Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
6 Oct 2026 - ATP Shanghai Masters
23 Sept 2026 - ATP Hangzhou Open
22 Sept 2026 - ATP Hangzhou Open
25 Aug 2026 - ATP US Open
31 Jul 2026 - ATP Los Cabos Open
29 Jul 2026 - ATP Los Cabos Open
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
3 Oct 2026 - ATP Japan Open
30 Sept 2026 - ATP Japan Open
31 Aug 2026 - ATP US Open
15 Aug 2026 - ATP Cincinnati Open
7 Aug 2026 - ATP National Bank Open
5 Aug 2026 - ATP National Bank Open
Bernard Tomic - Matteo Arnaldi Key Points
- More than 22.5 games have been played in five of the last seven matches Tomic has played.
- A 7-5 or 7-6 set would help our prediction. Tomic has played at least one in six of his last seven matches.
- Arnaldi has played more than 22.5 games in six of his last seven completed best-of-three sets matches.
- Arnaldi has played at least one 7-5 or 7-6 set in six of his last nine completed matches.
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Our Bernard Tomic vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction
Bernard Tomic has been as high as 17th in the rankings, but that was back in 2016. He has had success this year, but that has been on the Challenger Tour. On the main ATP Tour, he has only played in one main draw on this surface, but did get to the last eight in Los Cabos.
Matteo Arnaldi has struggled on this surface in 2026 with just three wins. He did play better in his last tournament, especially when taking Carlos Alcaraz to a tie-break in Tokyo. Our Bernard Tomic v Matteo Arnaldi prediction is more than 22.5 games.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
