Portugal - Liga Portugal
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Liga Portugal Predictions
The match that could determine where the 2025 Primeira Liga title goes will be staged at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon. Benfica plays host to archrivals Sporting in the Lisbon derby on Saturday. This is the penultimate round, which makes it even more interesting. Hosts Benfica go into the match sitting second, while Sporting are top. Below is our prediction for the match.
Apart from the bragging rights, there is so much at stake in this. It is more like a ‘winner-takes-all’ affair. Sporting winning here means we have the champion, who also snaps the automatic Champions League slot. A win by one goal for Benfica means the title won’t be decided until the final day, then goal difference comes into play. If it ends in a draw, Sporting will only need to match Benfica’s result on matchday 34.
Both teams are on 78 points, Benfica being second courtesy of their 1-0 away loss. While they’ve both conceded the same number of goals, 26, Sporting have scored three goals more than Benfica. Sporting beat Benfica in the last two league matches between the teams.
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The Best Betting Odds for Benfica Lisbon v Sporting Lisbon Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.1 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.15 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.4 | 2.5 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.11 | 3.29 | 3.41 |
|
|
2.07 | 3.35 | 3.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Benfica Lisbon and Sporting Lisbon?
Our prediction for the Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon match is: over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/05/2025 between Benfica Lisbon and Sporting Lisbon in Liga Portugal :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 33.4% for a win of Benfica Lisbon against Sporting Lisbon with odds of 2.4 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon is 16.35% with odds of 3.5 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 50.25% chance ⭐ for a win of Sporting Lisbon vs Benfica Lisbon with odds of 3.41 at Vbet.
Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon Form
Benfica Lisbon and Sporting Lisbon's standings in the Liga Portugal
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
78 | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 59 |
|
2
|
78 | 32 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 56 |
Benfica Lisbon and Sporting Lisbon Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2025 - Liga Portugal
27 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Apr 2025 - Taca de Portugal
19 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
13 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
9 Apr 2025 - Taca de Portugal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Apr 2025 - Taca de Portugal
13 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
2 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
8 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
5 Mar 2025 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2025 - Liga Portugal
19 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
9 Apr 2025 - Taca de Portugal
6 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
28 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
16 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2025 - Liga Portugal
27 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
22 Apr 2025 - Taca de Portugal
18 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
12 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
7 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2025 - Liga Portugal
18 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
7 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
3 Apr 2025 - Taca de Portugal
15 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
3 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
22 Apr 2025 - Taca de Portugal
12 Apr 2025 - Liga Portugal
29 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
9 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
27 Feb 2025 - Taca de Portugal
Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
11 Jan 2025 - Portugal League Cup
29 Dec 2024 - Liga Portugal
6 Apr 2024 - Liga Portugal
2 Apr 2024 - Taca de Portugal
29 Feb 2024 - Taca de Portugal
12 Nov 2023 - Liga Portugal
Benfica Lisbon - Sporting Lisbon: Form Analysis
This season has seen one of the closest challenges for the Primeira Liga title. There could be a tiebreaker this Saturday when these two giants face off. Benfica will be banking on home advantage.
In the first league meeting between these two, Benfica lost 1-0 away from home. To secure the title at home, they need a win by more than a goal.
As Aguias will feel they deserve this after a fine run starting in February to close in on Sporting. They are unbeaten in 13 league matches, a winning run only interrupted by a 2-2 draw at home to Arouca.
Sporting won the last two league meetings with Benfica.
Sporting Lisbon come on board with an unbeaten run of their own. They haven't lost in the last 19 league matches, winning 13 times in that stretch. This streak was almost broken in their last outing against Gil Vicente.
They needed two goals inside the final 10 minutes to turn the game on its head. A home loss to Gil Vicente would have turned seriously detrimental to their title hopes.
In the last two league meetings with Benfica, Sporting claimed the bragging rights with back-to-back wins.
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Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Benfica Lisbon & Sporting Lisbon Squad Analysis
Greek forward Vangelis Pavlidis has been Benfica’s shining light this season. He is only settling in Portugal after his move from AZ, and so far the 26-year-old is doing well. In 32 appearances, he has scored 18 times and laid on six assists.
He will be keen to put his name in the Lisbon derby folklore by netting in this game or helping his team to the title. As he leads the attack, Pavlidis will be surrounded by a horde of creative players, making his job easier.
Sporting’s leading scorer, Gyokeres, has 20 goals more than his closest competitor.
Ahead of this game, news that Viktor Gyokeres is a top Arsenal target could be destabilizing for the Sporting talisman. Visiting fans will hope he keeps a cool head for this game and the remaining assignments for the season.
The Swede is the league’s leading scorer with 38 goals and is sure to win that gong. Apart from having scored 20 goals more than his closest challenger, in Gyokeres’ last 10 appearances, he has had 18 goal contributions.
Most goals and assists
Benfica Lisbon
Sporting Lisbon
V. Pavlidis
(27 Goals)
V. Gyokeres
(46 Goals)
V. Pavlidis
(10 Assists)
, 
K. Akturkoglu
(10 Assists)
F. Trincao
(15 Assists)
Benfica Lisbon and Sporting Lisbon Stats in Liga Portugal
Benfica Lisbon - Sporting Lisbon Key Points
- Over 2.5 goals were scored in all of Benfica’s last 10 league matches.
- In five of Benfica’s last eight league games, both teams scored.
- Both scored in seven of these two teams’ last eight meetings.
- A total of 16 goals were scored in Sporting’s last five matches.
- In half of Sporting’s last 10 away league games, both teams scored.
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Our Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon Prediction
It feels so much like Benfica have their backs against the wall, having lost that first leg meeting and also with an inferior goal difference. Whatever comes up here, we are almost assured of goals in this game.
In seven of the last eight matches pitting these two rivals, both teams scored. Sporting scored 14 times in their last five away league games, and Benfica netted 17 times in the last five at home. If they carry these ruins here, we are in for an entertaining game. Our prediction for Benfica v Sporting Lisbon is for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon - Other Interesting Predictions
Viktor Gyokeres to score or assist
In the last six matches between these two sides, Viktor Gyokeres has played a huge part. He has five goal involvements, scoring three times and laying on two assists.
From reports flying all over Europe, he may be on for a big move in the summer, and this could be the last Lisbon derby for him. If so, he will want to leave a lasting imprint. Going by his form, we will back him to score or assist in this match.
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Benfica Lisbon vs Sporting Lisbon match : Frequently asked questions
The Benfica v Sporting Lisbon match will be played on Saturday, 10th May.
The Benfica v Sporting Lisbon match will be staged at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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