ATP - ATP Cincinnati Open


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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Cincinnati Open Predictions
It was ten years ago when 13th seed Tommy Paul first played in the Cincinnati Open. A win over qualifier Adrian Mannarino will take him into the fourth round here for the first time. Here's our match prediction.
Only in 2023 has the American previously made it to the third round of this outdoor hard court Masters tournament. Paul is 1-1 with Mannarino in previous matches with the Frenchman winning their only match on this surface.
This year has seen Paul reach two hard court semi-finals. He also got to the last eight in the Australian Open and round four at Indian Wells. This is his first tournament since Wimbledon and he's 14th in both the live rankings and ATP Race.
Adrian Mannarino has played four matches so far in this tournament. He made it through the qualifying rounds with two straight sets victories. In the main draw, the Frenchman has defeated Jordan Thompson and 19th seed Tomas Machac, again without dropping a set.
Mannarino is now 81st in the live rankings and only 98th in the ATP Race. The 37-year-old will want to repeat his best here of a quarter-final in 2023 but we feel this is the end of the road for him. We tip Paul to win in straight sets.
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The Best Betting Odds for Adrian Mannarino v Tommy Paul Match
Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
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4 | 1.25 |
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4 | 1.25 |
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4.25 | 1.22 |
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3.9 | 1.22 |
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3.95 | 1.26 |
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Who will win the Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy Paul Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy Paul match is: Tommy Paul to win in straight sets.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy Paul game on 12/08/2025 of the current ATP Cincinnati Open season:
- Adrian Mannarino has a 41.4% chance to win against Tommy Paul according to Betway ⭐ with the odds of 4.25.
- Tommy Paul has a 58.6% probability of winning facing Adrian Mannarino ⭐ with odds of 1.27 at 22bet.
Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy Paul Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Adrian Mannarino has a 41.4 % chance to win.
Prediction | Chance to win |
---|---|
Adrian Mannarino | 41.4 % |
Tommy Paul | 58.6 % |
Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy Paul Form
Adrian Mannarino and Tommy Paul Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
9 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
7 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
6 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
5 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
30 Jul 2025 - ATP Toronto
28 Jul 2025 - ATP Toronto
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
9 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
3 Jul 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
1 Jul 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
25 Jun 2025 - ATP Eastbourne International
3 Jun 2025 - ATP French Open
1 Jun 2025 - ATP French Open
Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy Paul Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
28 Oct 2024 - Rolex Paris Masters
29 Jun 2022 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Adrian Mannarino - Tommy Paul Key Points
- Paul is 67 places ahead of Mannarino in the live rankings.
- Mannarino is over 80 places behind Paul in the ATP Live Race.
- Mannarino has only won eight of his 22 hard court matches played this year.
- This is the first time in 2025 that Mannarino has made it to round three of an ATP Tour hard court tournament.
- 2025 has seen Paul get to two ATP Tour hard court semi-finals.
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Our Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy Paul Prediction
Adrian Mannarino is in only his second ATP Tour third round of the year and the first on this surface. His deep runs in 2025 have come on the Challenger Tour which is a bit of a step down for a player who was ranked 17th in the world in 2024.
Tommy Paul has been enjoying a far more consistent 2025 making it to at least the quarter-finals of six ATP Tour tournaments, three on hard courts. He had a comfortable second round win and our Adrian Mannarino v Tommy Paul prediction is Tommy Paul to win in straight sets.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

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