Zimbabwe vs. South Africa: Regional rivals meet in an all-or-nothing battle for last-16 spot at AFCON 2025
by Devesh Jaganath | by Cydias Aujard
Bafana aim to bounce back after disappointment against Egypt
A total of 24 teams arrived in Morocco just over a week ago, and the 16 nations to progress to the knockout stage of the tournament will be decided this week as we enter the final round of group stage matches, which we will be covering in our AFCON 2025 predictions.
Three spots have already been locked in, with Nigeria, Algeria and Egypt guaranteed to feature in the last 16. The Pharaohs booked their place in the knockout stage of the competition by grinding out a 1-0 victory over South Africa in Agadir on Boxing Day.
Bafana Bafana understandably felt a little hard done by in that match, having had a contentious penalty given against them which Mohamed Salah converted, while being denied a genuine call for a spot-kick of their own in the closing stages.
However, following that match, Hugo Broos challenged his side to tap into their anger and frustration from that defeat and channel it into producing a big performance against the Warriors. You can find all the key insights for this match in our Zimbabwe vs South Africa prediction.
This will be the sixth time that Bafana will face their regional rivals across all competitions since Broos arrived at the helm in 2022, and the Belgian tactician has yet to lose a match against them, drawing two games either side of three consecutive victories.
Notably, though, this is the first time that the Southern African neighbours will meet at the Africa Cup of Nations finals, and Bafana Bafana have won just one of their last five AFCON matches in regulation time - their 2-1 victory over Angola in the opening round of this year’s tournament.
South Africa key stats:
- South Africa need to avoid defeat in this match to progress to the last 16 of AFCON 2025
- South Africa have won one of their last five AFCON matches in regulation time
- South Africa’s last four group-stage wins at the AFCON were against COSAFA member nations
- South Africa have only won two of their last 11 final group-stage AFCON matches (D5 L4)
Stubborn Warriors eyeing Group B final-day miracle
Zimbabwe are the clear outsiders in this match according to all the best online betting sites, but they have already shown in this competition that they cannot be underestimated, and are well-capable of frustrating even the best teams across the continent.
The Warriors kicked off their AFCON 2025 campaign by taking an early lead against Egypt in their opening match, and were agonisingly close to leaving with a point from that clash, but a stoppage-time penalty by Mo Salah denied them a share of the spoils.
However, Marian Marinica’s side held firm to claim a 1-1 draw against Angola in their second match, which not only kept their hopes of progression alive, but presents them with a straight shootout for knockout qualification here - indeed, a win for the Warriors tonight will see the leapfrog South Africa into second place in Group B.
History, though, does not favour Zimbabwe. The last time they managed to defeat Bafana Bafana was over a decade ago in 2013 in an international friendly, while the four matches since then (excluding COSAFA Cup) have been split, two draws and two defeats for the Warriors.
Despite this, the one factor that will give Marinica and Co belief coming into this clash is their last encounter, where they held Bafana to a frustrating goalless draw at the Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban during a crucial 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifier just over a couple of months ago.
Additionally, Zimbabwe have typically fared well on the final day of group-stage action at the Africa Cup of Nations. All of their wins in this competition since the group stage was introduced have come on MD3 - against Algeria (2004), Ghana (2006) and Guinea (2021).
Zimbabwe key stats:
- Zimbabwe have to win this match to have a chance of qualifying for the 2025 AFCON knockout stage
- Zimbabwe have won three of their five final-day group-stage AFCON matches (L2)
- Zimbabwe have only won one of their last 11 AFCON matches
- Zimbabwe have never kept a clean sheet in 17 AFCON matches
