2025 Women’s Cricket World Cup: Qualification scenarios with India, Sri Lanka and New Zealand set to fight for final knockout spot
How can each team qualify for the World Cup knockouts?
After 22 matches in the 2025 Women’s Cricket World Cup, three teams - South Africa, Australia and England - have already booked their place in the semi-finals, while Bangladesh and Pakistan have been eliminated from knockout round contention.
India currently holds the coveted fourth place at present, but only on net run rate, with the Women in Blue, New Zealand and Sri Lanka all tied on four points apiece. Notably, India and New Zealand have played one game less than Sri Lanka.
With two games to play, India hold their fate in their own hands. If the tournament hosts win both their matches, they will progress to the semi-finals, given that one of those games is against New Zealand, and Sri Lanka have just one game left, meaning they can only get to a maximum of six points.
If both the White Ferns and the Women in Blue win one game each, net run rate will come into play, which puts India in an advantageous position. Should India lose both games, New Zealand will overtake them into fourth place and secure the final knockout round berth.
As for Sri Lanka, it will take a long shot for them to get through since they only have one game in hand. They have to win that match and hope India and New Zealand lose at least once to bring it down to net run rate.
However, of the three teams, Sri Lanka has the worst net run rate by some distance, meaning they will need to win their final match against Pakistan by a very big margin and pray for the other two to suffer heavy defeats.
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | L | NR | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa (Q) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0.276 |
| 2 | Australia (Q) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.818 |
| 3 | England (Q) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.490 |
| 4 | India | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0.526 |
| 5 | New Zealand | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | −0.245 |
| 6 | Sri Lanka | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | −1.035 |
| 7 | Bangladesh (E) | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | −0.578 |
| 8 | Pakistan (E) | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | −2.651 |
India vs New Zealand shaping up to be a do-or-die contest
Adding to the intrigue for the teams that are still in the running for fourth place is that India and New Zealand are set to face off in what could be a do-or-die fixture on Thursday at the DY Patil Stadium in Navi Mumbai.
The White Ferns have been extremely unlucky in this competition so far, as two of their matches have ended in no results due to rain, which forced them to share the points with Sri Lanka and Pakistan - two games that they were firmly expected to win.
According to our India Women vs New Zealand Women prediction, our experts are leaning toward the side from the Southern Hemisphere getting the result in this one, but with the pressure on, anything can still happen.
India will end their group stage against Bangladesh in the final match of the round-robin section on October 26, while New Zealand will face the formidable England team 24 hours earlier in Visakhapatnam.
