Women's Cricket World Cup: Can India still make the knockout round after back-to-back losses?
India’s World Cup campaign to date and current standing
Australia have firmly announced themselves as the team to beat in the 2025 Women’s World Cup, and England are expected to be their main challenger, with both nations still unbeaten after five and four games, respectively.
However, behind the two front-runners, it is still anyone’s ball game, with only four points (or two wins) separating third-placed South Africa and seventh-placed Sri Lanka, entering the second half of the group stage in the competition.
India have slipped to fourth place with four points in as many games after making a storming start to their campaign by beating co-hosts Sri Lanka by 59 runs (DLS method) and confirming our cricket predictions in the tournament opener on September 30.
The Women in Blue followed that with an even more impressive 88-run victory over arch-rivals Pakistan in their second match, but since then, they have suffered back-to-back losses, which has tossed their knockout qualification hopes into doubt.
The first of those defeats came against South Africa on October 9, where Harmanpreet Kaur’s side failed to defend a total of 251, while the second ended in a record-breaking loss to Australia, which chased down a mammoth target of 330 with an over to spare.
How can India qualify for World Cup semi-final?
Australia moved back to the top of the table with nine points after a commanding victory over Bangladesh on Thursday afternoon. England have seven points in four games in second place, South Africa are third with six points, and India are fourth with four points in as many matches.
The top four teams in the group stage advance to the semis, and considering just how fine the margins are, it is looking increasingly likely that the race for those coveted four spots are going to go down to the wire, possibly even to be decided on net run rate.
The Women in Blue have three games left to play before the end of the group stage, and if they can win all of those, their place in the semis is guaranteed. Two wins in three will likely bring net run rate into play, but eight points is still widely expected to be enough to see them through.
Two defeats for India will take their fate out of their own hands, and their prospects will depend on the results of South Africa, New Zealand and England. Three losses will certainly bring an end to their title dream.
All told, India have to win at least two of their remaining three matches, but the major issue is that they have to face England next, followed by New Zealand (both former world champions), before concluding their group stage fixtures against Bangladesh.
To their advantage, the tournament hosts do have a solid net run rate at present of +0.682, significantly better than their closest rivals South Africa on -0.618. Thus, even if they do lose two more games, ensuring those defeats are by tight margins could prove the determining factor in in race for the top four.
2025 Women's World Cup table
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | L | NR | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australia (Q) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.818 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1.864 |
| 3 | South Africa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | −0.618 |
| 4 | India (H) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.682 |
| 5 | New Zealand | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −0.245 |
| 6 | Bangladesh | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | −0.676 |
| 7 | Sri Lanka | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | −1.526 |
| 8 | Pakistan | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | −1.887 |
