Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction & Picks - NFL
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by Travis Pulver in NFL Picks
The Steelers will kick off the 2026 NFL season by hosting the Atlanta Falcons Sunday afternoon at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. EST with coverage provided by FOX.
Atlanta had a disappointing 8-9 season last year that ended with the team naming former Cleveland Browns HC Kevin Stefanski as its new head coach. Tua Tagoviola was brought in to start if Michael Penix Jr. couldn’t be ready for Week 1, but an oblique injury opened the door for Cooper Rush to get his 17th career start and first for the Falcons.
As for the Steelers, Aaron Rodgers didn’t make them wait as long as he did the previous year to say he’s playing. But it remains to be seen if his return is a good thing. The offense averaged just 23.4 points per game last season, and Rodgers had career lows in passing yards (3322) and touchdowns (24).
Based on the quarterbacks, the edge should belong to the Steelers with a future Hall of Famer behind center. However, Rush, while less experienced than Rodgers, has proven himself a capable game manager. He became the 14th quarterback in NFL history to win his first five starts back in the 2021-22 season.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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3
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0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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3
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0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons Latest Matches
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Pittsburgh Steelers against Atlanta Falcons : Head to Head (H2H)
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Pittsburgh Steelers - Atlanta Falcons Key Points
- Over 18 seasons, Aaron Rodgers is 11-7 SU and 10-8 ATS (the 2023 season opener for the Jets counts, despite Rodgers playing only four plays).
- Kevin Stefanski went 2-4 in season openers as head coach of the Browns.
- In 10 seasons together in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy were 6-4 in season openers.
- Betting Public: 77% of total tickets and 80% of the handle are on the OVER.
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Our Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction
The public has also bet overwhelmingly on the Steelers to win outright (88% of moneyline tickets and 87% of the handle) and the ATS (56% of tickets and 84% of the handle). But I’m not nearly as confident. The Steelers offense was uninspiring, to say the least, with Rodgers at QB last season, and I doubt that will change much in Week 1, as there will be plenty of kinks to work out with a new head coach and system. While I would be surprised to see Rush have a big day, his track record as a game manager is impressive.
So, Atlanta could keep this close and might even win (but I wouldn’t take either bet). The Falcons will undoubtedly lean on Bijian Robinson in the run game, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Steelers do the same with Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle. So, they’ll end up grinding the clock away in what will be a low-scoring game.
Our Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh Pick: UNDER 41.5
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
