Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills Prediction & Picks - NFL

Prediction published on 9/11/26, 1:00 PM  by Lou Aguila | Modified on 9/11/26 at 11:19 PM in NFL Picks

The Houston Texans will clash with the Houston Texans in their season opener at Reliant Stadium on Sunday.

The Texans, 4-0 in their last four home games against the Bills, offer a solid value at -102 odds in this match.

Current Form:

The Houston Texans will kick off their 2026 NFL season at home. The Texans lost their first three games last season but won 12 of their next 14 games to make the playoffs. CJ Stroud returns in his fourth year as the Texans’ starting quarterback. Despite missing several games last season due to a concussion he suffered in Week 9 against the Denver Broncos, Stroud finished the season with 3,041 passing yards on a 64.5% completion rate, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. The Texans also added a weapon to their backfield formation by acquiring David Montgomery, who covered 716 yards on 158 carries and scored 8 touchdowns in 2025.

The Buffalo Bills will start their season on the road, particularly in a place where they have gone 0-4 in their last four trips. The Bills finished with a 12-5 record in the 2025 regular season but lost to the Denver Broncos, 30-33, in the divisional playoffs. Quarterback Josh Allen, who passed for 3,668 yards with 25 touchdowns last season, will have a new target downfield as the Bills acquired DJ Moore in a trade with the Chicago Bears in March. Moore ran for 682 yards last season, marking the lowest of his career after registering four seasons with at least 1,100 rushing yards each.

The Matchup: The Texans have won 7 of their last 10 meetings with the Bills.