Liga MX Picks & Predictions

The 18 strongest teams in the Mexican football league kick off a new season. Excitement, surprises, signings, and goals await us in the 2024 Liga MX Clausura tournament from the first match to the grand finale! Check out all our predictions for the Liga MX Clausura 2024.

Liga MX: Picks and Predictions

Liga MX is the top category of professional Mexican football, representing the first division, which includes both the Apertura and Clausura tournaments. The regular season starts almost alongside the major European leagues and is characterized by being one of the most competitive leagues in the Americas, and also boasts an infrastructure that closely resembles that seen in other prestigious tournaments like the Brasileirao.

Despite this, the difference in format continues to spark internal debate since having the opportunity to become champion every six months has led to observations that sometimes teams do not give their all on the field with the goal of winning each matchday. However, it is undeniable that with a direct elimination phase in the finals, surprises are commonplace and the spectacle is guaranteed for the Mexican fans.

For the new 2024 Clausura edition, some Mexican teams will need to consider their participation in international tournaments such as the CONCACAF Champions Cup, a tournament that will replace the CONCACAF Champions League with a format that appears much more attractive than in previous editions. Additionally, pending confirmation from CONCACAF and CONMEBOL, 2024 might also see the return of the Copa Interamericana, where Liga MX could also field León for this competition.

With all this in consideration, we present below the predictions, data, and much more useful information that should be analyzed before the start of a new edition of Liga MX.

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Free Liga MX Predictions: Who will win Liga MX?

Liga MX, with its regular season format followed by direct elimination, always poses a significant challenge to establish any team as a real title contender from the early stages. However, it's important to note that there are major teams that tend to strengthen themselves very well each tournament, making it impossible not to consider them as title contenders.

Among these teams, América, Guadalajara, Monterrey, and Tigres stand out; teams that always generate buzz due to their fan base and payroll throughout each competition. Additionally, it is a fact that these four clubs will compete during the 17 matchdays to secure a spot in the top six, as these positions ensure their presence in the Liguilla without having to play reclassification matches.

Furthermore, considering what the sportsbooks indicate through their odds, it is very clear that these same four teams are considered top candidates to lift the championship trophy for the upcoming 2024 Clausura edition. This is very relevant when analyzing the Liga MX preview, as sportsbooks study these odds with caution, reflecting directly the associated probability of the 18 participating teams becoming champions, taking into account factors such as their recent performances and confirmed signings for the next season.

With all this in consideration, the most likely long-term prediction we recommend is: Tigres UANL to win the Liga MX Clausura 2024!

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Odds on the Favorite for the Championship 

• Club America +175
• Toluca +550
• Monterrey +550 
• Cruz Azul +700
• Tigres UANL +900
• Pachuca +1000

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook.

Predictions on the top teams in Liga MX: Who will book a spot in Concachampions?

As previously addressed, the new format of Liga MX will allow the top 6 teams to directly access the direct elimination phase, also colloquially called the Liguilla. Teams that achieve a superior performance will accomplish this feat to enter this phase with fresh legs. Among these teams, the top 3 have a true advantage, as, if they continue advancing, they ensure at least finishing their matches at home as an advantage due to their position in the table, with América, Tigres UANL, and Toluca being our prediction to occupy these spots.

In this sense, the rest of the teams that will directly qualify for the Liguilla include Monterrey as a clear candidate. However, the fifth and sixth places will be fiercely contested by teams such as Pumas UNAM, San Luis, Guadalajara, and Cruz Azul, so very interesting matchdays are expected as the end of the regular season approaches.

Regarding the Concachampions, it is important to highlight that the team that accumulates the most points over the year will directly qualify for the direct elimination phases of the continental tournament. Therefore, teams that have good campaigns and manage to accumulate many points, such as Monterrey, Tigres UANL, América, and Cruz Azul, should be considered for those spots.

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Liga MX Prediction: Which teams will qualify for the Play-In?

Among the still new features of Liga MX, it is a fact that the Play-In phase stands out significantly. It's important to remember that the teams finishing the season between the seventh and tenth positions will compete in a reclassification phase. Through this phase, the remaining two teams for the Liguilla will be determined, with the winners of the match between the seventh and eighth places, as well as the game between the winner of the ninth and tenth versus the loser of the game between the seventh and eighth, qualifying.

Among the candidate teams to fight for the Play-In qualification spots are Santos Laguna, Tijuana, Cruz Azul, Puebla, Juárez, and Atlético San Luis. These are all teams that tend to have seasons full of ups and downs, which could easily place them between the seventh and tenth positions. However, it is complex to foresee the real contenders with so much time left in the official calendar, where clearly the performance of new signings, as well as fluctuations in form, will have a huge impact on these positions.

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Liga MX: Odds for Play-In Qualifiers

Currently, there is no offer from sportsbooks to determine the teams qualified for this phase of the championship. However, we invite you to visit the official DraftKings website to view all available markets for Liga MX and take advantage of the welcome bonus they offer.

Liga MX Relegation Forecasts: Teams Fighting to Avoid Last Place

Another aspect that sets Liga MX apart from others is that currently, no team can be relegated. This is a management decision based around the argument of strengthening the clubs that make up the Liga de Expansión MX. Nonetheless, there is still pressure among the teams not to finish last in the percentage table because that position incurs a fine, a situation no director would want to face with a sum of approximately 5 million dollars at stake. In this regard, clubs like Mazatlán and Querétaro are commonly in the fight to avoid such situations, so it will be interesting to observe the performance of these teams in this competition.

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Mexican League: Odds for Relegated Teams

Since there is no relegation, this offer is not available in the sports betting market. Likewise, there is no possibility to bet on the team that will finish in the last position of the percentage table. Should there be any updates, we will inform you promptly and timely so you are aware of the latest in Liga MX. Meanwhile, we invite you to take advantage of the odds that BetMGM offers, as well as their welcome bonus.

Prediction on the top scorer of Clausura 2024: Which player will score the most goals?

Another essential aspect to consider in Mexican soccer and this new season of Liga MX is the individual performance of the players, with forwards playing a particularly crucial role as they often lead their teams' offenses. It is expected that their goal-scoring exploits be as substantial as possible to help the team achieve its final objectives. For the Apertura 2023 tournament, it is clear that there is a long list of candidates since, unlike other leagues, Liga MX does not have a world-class forward who stands out significantly above the rest, but it is important to list the most notable candidates:

• Henry Martín (América)
• Gabriel Fernández (Cruz Azul)
• Julián Quiñones (América)
• Salomón Rondón (Pachuca)
• Harold Preciado (Santos Laguna)
• André-Pierre Gignac (Tigres UANL)

It is worth noting that, during the Apertura 2024, it was precisely Harold Preciado who was the top scorer of the season with 11 goals, so he is expected to maintain the pace to continue being one of the best foreign forwards in Liga MX. However, considering that it has been very rare for a scoring leader to repeat the feat for two consecutive seasons, it will be good to watch other players like Julián Quiñones, André-Pierre Gignac, Gabriel Fernández, and Salomón Rondón, who could be the top scorers of the tournament.

Getting Started in Sports Betting: How Does Liga MX Work?

Liga MX, as previously reviewed, is the top professional football league in Mexico, consisting of 18 teams that compete in two short championships per year, called Apertura and Clausura. Considering this, the teams play a regular season consisting of 17 matchdays, a situation that is repeated during both short tournaments. In this sense, by combining both tournaments, it can be seen that teams play home and away throughout the calendar year, making it crucial to take advantage of home games to achieve each club's objectives.

Once the regular phase ends, the standings directly influence the clubs in the following way:

• The top 6 teams in the overall standings qualify directly for the Liguilla.
• From seventh to tenth place, teams qualify for the Play-In phase to compete for the two remaining spots in the Liguilla.
• Teams from eleventh to eighteenth are out of the competition.
• The champion team and the finalist have direct access to the next edition of the CONCACAF Champions Cup.
• The team that accumulates the most points over the calendar year also gains direct access to the next edition of the CONCACAF Champions Cup.

As can be seen, there are many circumstances in which Liga MX teams can be involved, with the fact that the passionate Mexican fans always ensure that the spectacle significantly increases during each matchday.

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How to Bet on Liga MX?

To make better predictions in Liga MX, it's more than necessary to understand the dynamics of the game, where, although there are really attractive games with frequent goals, also, being short tournaments with a good number of matchdays, it's important to highlight that the first 4 or 5 matchdays of the championship pass without much fanfare and with very few memorable performances from the participating teams. This is precisely when it's worthwhile to look at the goals and cards markets during these tight moments of the season. Additionally, as specialists in this league, at SportyTrader we offer you the following recommendations to succeed in your predictions:

• Check the performance of the teams, their signings, and the coaching staff
• Consider possible absences due to injury and suspension
• Compare the odds offered for your preferred markets pre-match and live
• Check the schedule of international club tournaments such as the Concachampions and Leagues Cup
• Never underestimate, but also do not overvalue any team based on their financial power 

All of the above are valid tips that our experts have gathered based on their experience betting on Liga MX matches. Below, you will find a more detailed explanation for each of them!

Verify the performance of the teams, their signings, and the coaching staff

One of the first aspects you should pay attention to when betting on Liga MX is the immediate current form of all the teams, since, sometimes, even if the first place in the overall standings is facing the last place, if the short-term streaks of both teams are completely opposite, a result that might be considered surprising can be expected for anyone who does not closely follow the Mexican teams.

Additionally, the role of the coaching staff is very significant, as currently, the Mexican player seems to look more for a figure of motivation rather than one of demand, so the team's morale should be analyzed prior to each match.

In this sense, it's important not to overlook all these aspects, and it is even feasible, at times, that the media might play a role in favoring or against the performance of the players, who often have shown not to be 100% focused on sports, but also get involved in issues unrelated to the field.

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Consider possible absences due to injury and suspension.

Another important aspect to consider is potential absences due to injury or suspension. Therefore, it is crucial to stay up-to-date with the latest team news, as injuries can occur not only during a match but also during training sessions throughout the week. This is often due to the congested schedules with tournaments such as the Leagues Cup, Concachampions, and international commitments with national teams.

Regarding suspensions, it is important to keep an eye on all matches to consider players who are at risk of missing a match due to an accumulation of yellow cards or a red card. Sometimes, teams appeal the decisions of the Disciplinary Commission, which can nullify the sanction, or even extend it.

Compare the odds offered for your preferred markets pre-match and live

One of the fundamental aspects that any bettor should consider are the odds offered by sportsbooks, being extremely important to analyze them in detail to complement the analysis performed on the performance of the involved teams. This will allow you to have a significant advantage in reading the expectations before the start of the match, and subsequently, it will also help you better understand the variations that occur once the event begins, making that moment one of the favorites to seek to maximize your profits while enjoying your favorite events.

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Check the schedule of international club tournaments such as the Concachampions and the Leagues Cup.

Regarding the schedule, this factor is extremely important, as player fatigue, both physical and mental, also plays a key role in the outcome of a match. The fact of facing mid-week matches in continental competitions like the CONCACAF Champions League can be decisive in the results in Liga MX, especially if the players had to endure a very long round-trip journey.

On the other hand, major national team tournaments in the summer can also directly affect the performance of players, and consequently, the teams, as the top stars will look to preserve their physical condition to continue performing well, and possibly, be considered for tournaments like the upcoming Copa América 2024, where Mexico aims to play a significant role.

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Never underestimate, but also do not overvalue any team based on their financial power. 

Finally, not underestimating or overvaluing any team allows for maintaining an objective perspective of the matches. Regardless of the budget differences between the teams, the reality is that with eleven against eleven, matches tend to be quite entertaining and evenly matched. Thus, the only thing that will define the outcome of the match is the condition the players are in during the 90 minutes of each game. It is a fact that, since they are not machines, they cannot maintain a truly constant level of play, and at some point, they are bound to lose a game regardless of the opponent they face.

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What Not to Do for Your Liga MX Predictions

Another aspect to consider to maximize potential gains in your Liga MX predictions is to avoid the following list of actions that can put your capital at risk:

• Betting based on hunches or fanaticism
• Always placing bets in favor of favorite teams (Monterrey, América, etc.)
• Not analyzing the variations of initial odds against final odds
• Betting without dedicating time to the analysis of trends, histories, and streaks
• Desperately trying to recover a previously lost bet
• Making excessive live bets
• Being guided by the biased opinion of some media outlets

As can be seen, the list of potential mistakes is long, but avoiding them significantly increases your chances of making profits while enjoying truly competitive matches in Liga MX.

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Predictions for Mexico's First Division: the statistics you need to know

In addition to everything previously mentioned, it is important that you consider statistics as an essential part that must be taken into account to maximize your potential earnings in the Mexican Football League. Therefore, we present the most outstanding statistics from the Apertura 2023 season, hoping they will provide you with a broader overview of what to expect for the Clausura 2024:

• Home Wins: 72 (47%)
• Draws: 37 (24%)
• Away Wins: 44 (29%)
• Average goals per match: 2.85 goals per match
• +1.5 Goals: 124 matches (81%)
• -1.5 Goals: 29 matches (19%)
• +2.5 Goals: 84 matches (55%)
• -2.5 Goals: 69 matches (45%)
• +3.5 Goals: 47 matches (31%)
• -3.5 Goals: 106 matches (69%)
• Both Teams Score: 86 matches (56%)
• Average away goals per match: 1.20 goals per match
• Exact score 0-0: 8 matches (5.2%)
• Most frequent score: 1-1 (24 matches, 16%) and 1-0 (16 matches, 10%)

All this data is very important when placing a bet, as it generally allows you to establish how likely it is that teams will continue to collect matches with goals, as well as determine the probability of both teams scoring, thus enabling the generation of much more interesting value bets.

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In Conclusion: How to successfully place your Liga MX bets?

To achieve your goal of being profitable in the long term, you should take into account all the recommendations we have provided at SportyTrader, always remembering to remain impartial when placing your bets, as this will give you a significant advantage over others. Additionally, always keeping in mind the statistics of the matches creates a confident environment that gives you greater flexibility when betting, always being a good idea to use handicap markets, both pre-match for live betting, from the start of the tournament, the round of 16 and quarterfinals, semifinals up to the final.

Furthermore, the sports predictions from our team of Liga MX experts are always available so you can use them as a guide, remembering that all these predictions are free and available days before each event, with a commitment to cover Liga MX from start to finish.

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