Liga MX Picks & Predictions

A new tournament is kicking off in Mexican soccer, and all 18 teams in the league are ready to hit the field with their best strategies as they chase the Apertura 2025 title.

Don’t forget, you can find predictions for every match of the season right here on our site. Get expert analysis and breakdowns of Liga MX action, week in and week out!

Liga MX: Picks and Predictions

Liga MX is one of the most prestigious leagues in the Americas, thanks to the quality of its players and clubs. While there are some controversial topics, like the absence of promotion and relegation, that have sparked criticism, there’s no denying that the level of competition within the league remains high. When it comes to infrastructure, the league holds its own, offering facilities comparable to top South American leagues like Brazil’s Serie A.

Liga MX is the top tier of professional soccer in Mexico, and its season is split into two separate tournaments: the Clausura, played from January to May, and the Apertura, held from July to December. Each tournament has a 17-game regular season. The top six teams in the standings advance directly to the Liguilla, or playoff stage, while teams ranked 7th through 10th compete in a play-in round for the final two playoff spots, making it eight teams total in the quarterfinals.

If you’re planning to bet on Liga MX this season, it’s important to know that some teams will also be competing in the Leagues Cup, a tournament featuring top clubs from both Liga MX and Major League Soccer.

With that quick overview in mind, here are some key details to know if you want to become an expert on Liga MX.

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Free Liga MX Predictions: Who will win Liga MX?

The reigning Liga MX champions are Toluca’s Diablos Rojos, who, under the leadership of Antonio Mohamed, captured their 11th league title at the Nemesio Díez on May 25. They defeated Jardine’s Club América, who were coming off an impressive three-peat. Thanks to the resurgence of Alexis Vega, Toluca became a lethal force and, after three short tournaments, finally halted América’s dominant run, making them the team to beat heading into the Apertura 2025.

That said, América remains one of the top clubs in Mexican soccer, and Cruz Azul has been knocking on the door in recent seasons. Now with Nicolás Larcamón at the helm, there’s growing buzz around La Máquina, and we could see some big surprises coming out of La Noria. Meanwhile, Monterrey and Tigres continue to be among the league’s most competitive teams year after year, making them legitimate threats, especially considering how tough they’ve been for the Mexico City clubs in recent matchups.

One of the biggest storylines this season will be the clásicos. In recent tournaments, the Clásico Joven between América and Cruz Azul has become arguably the league’s most exciting rivalry, with tensions and stakes growing each time they meet. On the other hand, the Clásico Regio between Tigres and Monterrey is also highly anticipated, as both sides boast strong squads and passionate fan bases, making the matchup about more than just three points.

As always, the league is split into a regular season and a playoff phase, and we fully expect to see América, Cruz Azul, Tigres, Monterrey, Toluca, and possibly Pachuca fighting for top spots in the Liguilla. But based on what we saw last season, Mohamed’s Toluca is entering this Apertura with the best odds, and all eyes will be on them to defend their crown.

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Odds on the Favorite for the Championship 

Futures haven't been released yet for the 2025 Liga MX. We'll update this page when they're online. In the meantime, check out some other interesting markets available with Caesars Sportsbook.

Predictions on the top teams in Liga MX: Who will book a spot in Concachampions?

When you take a closer look at how Liga MX operates, it becomes clear that there’s a big difference between the pace of the regular season and the intensity of the playoffs. Because the league uses a Liguilla format, essentially a knockout stage, the entire dynamic shifts once the regular season ends. As we look ahead to the Apertura 2025, likely, clubs like América, Toluca, Cruz Azul, Tigres, and Monterrey will once again occupy the top six spots in the standings.

In the Clausura 2025, Toluca finished as the top seed with 37 points, while América secured second place with 34. That matchup ended up becoming the final, where Toluca took the title on home soil. It’s worth noting that in three of the last four Liga MX tournaments, those same five teams, América, Toluca, Cruz Azul, Tigres, and Monterrey,  have consistently finished near the top of the table. So, it’s a safe bet that they’ll be among the strongest contenders for the Liguilla once again.

Looking beyond the domestic tournament, the 2026 Concachampions, (CONCACAF Champions Cup) already has its Mexican participants lined up, all aiming to represent Liga MX on the international stage. The teams with their tickets punched are América, Monterrey, Toluca, Cruz Azul, Tigres, and Pumas. Right now, Monterrey are considered early favorites after a strong showing at the Club World Cup, though América and Cruz Azul remain serious threats with plenty of experience in this competition. In fact, Cruz Azul are the reigning Concachampions titleholders, although it’s important to remember the tournament won’t kick off until February of next year.

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Play-In Predictions: Which Liga MX Teams Will Qualify?

It was recently announced that the play-in format will be discontinued starting with the Clausura 2026, but it will still be in effect for the Apertura 2025. That means teams will once again have an extra shot at reaching the Liga MX playoffs. However, based on past tournaments, it’s clear that teams entering through the play-in rarely make deep runs. Typically, they just manage to earn one more game, since spots 7 through 10 face off for the final two Liguilla berths.

Clubs like Mazatlán, Pachuca, Tijuana, Pumas, and Chivas have been among the main beneficiaries of this play-in system. Still, as we've seen, it hasn’t been enough to push them toward a championship run, and we can likely expect a similar pattern this time around.

Looking at recent trends, these same teams have strong odds of being in the final play-in round. In the Clausura 2025, for example, the play-in featured matchups like Monterrey vs. Pachuca and Juárez vs. Pumas—a likely preview of what we might see again this fall.

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Liga MX Relegation Forecasts: Teams Fighting to Avoid Last Place

As of now, no Liga MX team can be relegated to the Liga de Expansión, due to a decision made by league officials in recent years. Several clubs pushed for the elimination of promotion and relegation, and instead, the bottom three teams in the overall standings are required to pay a financial penalty.

Naturally, this decision has sparked mixed reactions among fans and club executives. But at least through the Apertura 2025, the only consequence for poor performance in Liga MX is an economic sanction, not relegation.

For this tournament, the financial penalties were handed out to Mazatlán, Puebla, and Atlas for finishing at the bottom of the table.

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Prediction on the top scorer of Clausura 2025: Which player will score the most goals?

The Clausura 2025 delivered some impressive goal-scoring numbers compared to the previous season, with a total of 437 goals scored during the regular season, an average of 2.86 goals per match. In the Liguilla, there were 40 goals scored across all matches, averaging 2.35 goals per game.

The league's top scorers were Paulinho, Uros Durdevic, and Raúl Zúñiga, who shared the Golden Boot with 12 goals each. Here’s a look at the full list of top scorers from the most recent tournament:

• Paulinho (Toluca) – 12 goals
• Uros Durdevic (Atlas) – 12 goals
• Raúl Zúñiga (Tijuana) – 12 goals
• Diber Cambindo (Necaxa) – 11 goals
• Salomón Rondón (Pachuca) – 9 goals
• John Kennedy (Pachuca) – 9 goals
• Alexis Vega (Toluca) – 9 goals
• José Paradela (Necaxa) – 8 goals
• Germán Berterame (Monterrey) – 7 goals
• Víctor Dávila – 7 goals

In the Liguilla, Alexis Vega stood out, leading all scorers with four goals, one in the quarterfinals against Monterrey, two in the semifinals vs. Tigres, and the decisive goal in the final against Club América.

Looking ahead, and based on how the league is shaping up, we can expect standout offensive performances from players like Paulinho, Ángel Sepúlveda, Alexis Vega, Henry Martín, Raúl Zúñiga, and Uros Durdevic, among others.

Getting Started in Sports Betting: How Does Liga MX Work?

Liga MX, as previously reviewed, is the top professional football league in Mexico, consisting of 18 teams that compete in two short championships per year, called Apertura and Clausura. Considering this, the teams play a regular season consisting of 17 matchdays, a situation that is repeated during both short tournaments. In this sense, by combining both tournaments, it can be seen that teams play home and away throughout the calendar year, making it crucial to take advantage of home games to achieve each club's objectives.

Once the regular phase ends, the standings directly influence the clubs in the following way:

• The top 6 teams in the overall standings qualify directly for the Liguilla.
• From seventh to tenth place, teams qualify for the Play-In phase to compete for the two remaining spots in the Liguilla.
• Teams from eleventh to eighteenth are out of the competition.
• The champion team and the finalist have direct access to the next edition of the CONCACAF Champions Cup.
• The team that accumulates the most points over the calendar year also gains direct access to the next edition of the CONCACAF Champions Cup.

As can be seen, there are many circumstances in which Liga MX teams can be involved, with the fact that the passionate Mexican fans always ensure that the spectacle significantly increases during each matchday.

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How to Bet on Liga MX?

To make better predictions in Liga MX, it's more than necessary to understand the dynamics of the game, where, although there are really attractive games with frequent goals, also, being short tournaments with a good number of matchdays, it's important to highlight that the first 4 or 5 matchdays of the championship pass without much fanfare and with very few memorable performances from the participating teams. This is precisely when it's worthwhile to look at the goals and cards markets during these tight moments of the season. Additionally, as specialists in this league, at SportyTrader we offer you the following recommendations to succeed in your predictions:

• Check the performance of the teams, their signings, and the coaching staff
• Consider possible absences due to injury and suspension
• Compare the odds offered for your preferred markets pre-match and live
• Check the schedule of international club tournaments such as the Concachampions and Leagues Cup
• Never underestimate, but also do not overvalue any team based on their financial power 

All of the above are valid tips that our experts have gathered based on their experience betting on Liga MX matches. Below, you will find a more detailed explanation for each of them!

Verify the performance of the teams, their signings, and the coaching staff

One of the first aspects you should pay attention to when betting on Liga MX is the immediate current form of all the teams, since, sometimes, even if the first place in the overall standings is facing the last place, if the short-term streaks of both teams are completely opposite, a result that might be considered surprising can be expected for anyone who does not closely follow the Mexican teams.

Additionally, the role of the coaching staff is very significant, as currently, the Mexican player seems to look more for a figure of motivation rather than one of demand, so the team's morale should be analyzed prior to each match.

In this sense, it's important not to overlook all these aspects, and it is even feasible, at times, that the media might play a role in favoring or against the performance of the players, who often have shown not to be 100% focused on sports, but also get involved in issues unrelated to the field.

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Consider possible absences due to injury and suspension.

Another important aspect to consider is potential absences due to injury or suspension. Therefore, staying up-to-date with the latest team news is crucial, as injuries can occur not only during a match but also during training sessions throughout the week. This is often due to the congested schedules with tournaments such as the Leagues Cup, Concachampions, and international commitments with national teams.

Regarding suspensions, it is important to keep an eye on all matches to consider players who are at risk of missing a match due to an accumulation of yellow cards or a red card. Sometimes, teams appeal the decisions of the Disciplinary Commission, which can nullify the sanction, or even extend it.

Compare the odds offered for your preferred markets pre-match and live

One of the fundamental aspects that any bettor should consider are the odds offered by sportsbooks, being extremely important to analyze them in detail to complement the analysis performed on the performance of the involved teams. This will allow you to have a significant advantage in reading the expectations before the start of the match, and subsequently, it will also help you better understand the variations that occur once the event begins, making that moment one of the favorites to seek to maximize your profits while enjoying your favorite events.

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Check the schedule of international club tournaments such as the Concachampions and the Leagues Cup.

Regarding the schedule, this factor is extremely important, as player fatigue, both physical and mental, also plays a key role in the outcome of a match. The fact of facing mid-week matches in continental competitions like the CONCACAF Champions League can be decisive in the results in Liga MX, especially if the players had to endure a very long round-trip journey.

On the other hand, major national team tournaments in the summer can also directly affect the performance of players, and consequently, the teams, as the top stars will look to preserve their physical condition to continue performing well, and possibly, be considered for upcoming tournaments.

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Never underestimate, but also do not overvalue any team based on their financial power. 

Finally, not underestimating or overvaluing any team allows for maintaining an objective perspective of the matches. Regardless of the budget differences between the teams, the reality is that with eleven against eleven, matches tend to be quite entertaining and evenly matched. Thus, the only thing that will define the outcome of the match is the condition the players are in during the 90 minutes of each game. It is a fact that, since they are not machines, they cannot maintain a truly constant level of play, and at some point, they are bound to lose a game regardless of the opponent they face.

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What Not to Do for Your Liga MX Predictions

Another aspect to consider to maximize potential gains in your Liga MX predictions is to avoid the following list of actions that can put your capital at risk:

• Betting based on hunches or fanaticism
• Always placing bets in favor of favorite teams (Monterrey, América, etc.)
• Not analyzing the variations of initial odds against final odds
• Betting without dedicating time to the analysis of trends, histories, and streaks
• Desperately trying to recover a previously lost bet
• Making excessive live bets
• Being guided by the biased opinion of some media outlets

As can be seen, the list of potential mistakes is long, but avoiding them significantly increases your chances of making profits while enjoying truly competitive matches in Liga MX.

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Predictions for Mexico's First Division: the statistics you need to know

If you're looking to improve your results in sports betting, there's still some key information you should know. By adding a bit of data to everything we've already covered, it's worth highlighting a few stats that could boost your predictions and profits for the upcoming Apertura 2025, especially if your focus is on offense, specifically, goals scored throughout the season.

Key Stats from the Clausura 2025 Regular Season:

• Home wins: 74 (48%)
• Draws: 31 (20%)
• Away wins: 48 (31%)
• Average goals per match: 2.86
• Over 1.5 goals: 76%
• Under 1.5 goals: 31%
• Over 2.5 goals: 58%
• Under 2.5 goals: 42%
• Over 3.5 goals: 28.36%
• Under 3.5 goals: 71%
• Both teams scored: 55% of matches
• Average goals scored by away teams: 1.3 per game
• Most common final score: 2-1 (occurred 28 times)

Don’t forget, having access to this type of data can significantly improve your forecasting when betting on Liga MX matches. Wagering on goal totals is a popular and valuable strategy, and regularly reviewing stats like these can make a major difference in your success.

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In Conclusion: How to successfully place your Liga MX bets?

To achieve your goal of being profitable in the long term, you should take into account all the recommendations we have provided at SportyTrader, always remembering to remain impartial when placing your bets, as this will give you a significant advantage over others. Additionally, always keeping in mind the statistics of the matches creates a confident environment that gives you greater flexibility when betting, always being a good idea to use handicap markets, both pre-match for live betting, from the start of the tournament, the round of 16 and quarterfinals, semifinals up to the final.

Furthermore, the soccer predictions from our team of Liga MX experts are always available so you can use them as a guide, remembering that all these predictions are free and available days before each event, with a commitment to cover Liga MX from start to finish.

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