Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction & Picks - NFL

USA - NFL

Buffalo Bills
10/4/26 13:00
New England Patriots

Prediction:

 

Bills -7

-105
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 by Travis Pulver in NFL Picks

The New England Patriots will hope to get the offense on track this week as they face a division rival in the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park. Game time for this AFC East contest is scheduled for 1 p.m. EST, with coverage provided by CBS.

The Patriots have had a rough start to the season. They lost a tough opener in a Super Bowl rematch against the Seattle Seahawks, 13-10. After getting a 20-3 win over the Steelers, they were demolished by the Jaguars in Week 3, 35-6. Buffalo, meanwhile, is off to a 3-0 start and has one of the league's best offenses.

Part of the problem has been the play of quarterback Drake Maye. A year after playing like an MVP candidate, he has struggled to get on track. Last season, he threw eight interceptions during the entire regular season and had five touchdowns in the first three weeks. This season, he has one touchdown and six interceptions through Week 3.

His counterpart in Buffalo, on the other hand, has played like he wants to repeat as MVP. Through Week 3, he has completed 65.1% of his passes for 786 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. He has also rushed for six touchdowns (two per game).

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Form

Table

Teams Pts P W L
3 Buffalo Bills
1 3 3 0
20 New England Patriots
0.333 3 1 2

Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots Latest Matches

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills Latest matches
W W L W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Sep 27, 2026 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
24 :  16
Los Angeles Chargers

Sep 17, 2026 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
41 :  31
Detroit Lions

Sep 13, 2026 - NFL

Houston Texans
31 :  36
Buffalo Bills

Jan 17, 2026 - NFL

Denver Broncos
33 :  30
Buffalo Bills

Jan 11, 2026 - NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars
24 :  27
Buffalo Bills

Jan 4, 2026 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
35 :  8
New York Jets
W W L W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Sep 27, 2026 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
24 :  16
Los Angeles Chargers

Sep 17, 2026 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
41 :  31
Detroit Lions

Jan 4, 2026 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
35 :  8
New York Jets

Dec 28, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
12 :  13
Philadelphia Eagles

Dec 7, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
39 :  34
Cincinnati Bengals

Nov 16, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
44 :  32
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
W W W W L W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Sep 13, 2026 - NFL

Houston Texans
31 :  36
Buffalo Bills

Jan 17, 2026 - NFL

Denver Broncos
33 :  30
Buffalo Bills

Jan 11, 2026 - NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars
24 :  27
Buffalo Bills

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

Cleveland Browns
20 :  23
Buffalo Bills

Dec 14, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
31 :  35
Buffalo Bills

Nov 30, 2025 - NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers
7 :  26
Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots
New England Patriots Latest matches
W W L L W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Sep 27, 2026 - NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars
35 :  6
New England Patriots

Sep 20, 2026 - NFL

New England Patriots
20 :  3
Pittsburgh Steelers

Sep 9, 2026 - NFL

Seattle Seahawks
13 :  10
New England Patriots

Feb 8, 2026 - NFL

New England Patriots
13 :  29
Seattle Seahawks

Jan 25, 2026 - NFL

Denver Broncos
7 :  10
New England Patriots

Jan 18, 2026 - NFL

New England Patriots
28 :  16
Houston Texans
L W W W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Sep 20, 2026 - NFL

New England Patriots
20 :  3
Pittsburgh Steelers

Feb 8, 2026 - NFL

New England Patriots
13 :  29
Seattle Seahawks

Jan 18, 2026 - NFL

New England Patriots
28 :  16
Houston Texans

Jan 11, 2026 - NFL

New England Patriots
16 :  3
Los Angeles Chargers

Jan 4, 2026 - NFL

New England Patriots
38 :  10
Miami Dolphins

Dec 14, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
31 :  35
Buffalo Bills
W W W W L L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Sep 27, 2026 - NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars
35 :  6
New England Patriots

Sep 9, 2026 - NFL

Seattle Seahawks
13 :  10
New England Patriots

Jan 25, 2026 - NFL

Denver Broncos
7 :  10
New England Patriots

Dec 28, 2025 - NFL

New York Jets
10 :  42
New England Patriots

Dec 21, 2025 - NFL

Baltimore Ravens
24 :  28
New England Patriots

Nov 23, 2025 - NFL

Cincinnati Bengals
20 :  26
New England Patriots

Buffalo Bills against New England Patriots : Head to Head (H2H)

Buffalo Bills

50 %

New England Patriots

50 %

Dec 14, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
31 :  35
Buffalo Bills

Oct 5, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
20 :  23
New England Patriots

Jan 5, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
23 :  16
Buffalo Bills

Dec 22, 2024 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
24 :  21
New England Patriots

Dec 31, 2023 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
27 :  21
New England Patriots

Oct 22, 2023 - NFL

New England Patriots
29 :  25
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Picks

Buffalo Bills - New England Patriots Key Points

  1. New England is tied with Miami for the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL through Week 3 (12 points per game).
  2. Buffalo’s offense ranks No. 1 in the league in scoring with 33.7 points per game.
  3. Buffalo’s defense has averaged 361.3 yards and 26 points per game allowed.
  4. Buffalo opened as a 3-point favorite, but the line has extended to 7-points.

Our Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction

Last season, the games between these two teams were some of the best of the year. But the Patriots appear to be falling victim to the dreaded Super Bowl loser curse. Maye has struggled, and the offense has not been good, making it harder on the defense. Last week wasn't a good week for Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense, but they got it together in time to win. However, with how the Patriots have played, if the Bills do get off to a slow start, they’ll still have no problem covering the spread.

Our New England vs. Buffalo Pick: Bills -7

Prediction:

 

Bills -7

-105
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.