World Cup Group Stage Bets: Analysis of Futures

Even though eight of the 12 third-place teams will qualify for the knockout phase, sportsbooks are still treating us to plenty of top two markets. There are options to bet on the exact order, pick a pair of teams to finish top two in either order, or wager on a specific team to finish second.

A top two place guarantees progression to the round of 32, while four unlucky third-place teams will be sent home after the group stage.

Here are 10 soccer picks for the top-two markets:

Group A: Mexico and South Korea to Finish Top Two (+170 at FanDuel)

Since the turn of the century, South Korea have gone winless at one out of six World Cups. Disappointing results against the Ivory Coast and Austria in March don’t warrant being read into too deeply, particularly in a favorable group with the Czech Republic and South Africa.

The Czechs are in their first World Cup since 2006. South Africa have never been in the top two of a World Cup group and their form is concerning. Mexico are the team to beat in Group A with the key factor of home advantage, but South Korea won’t be far behind.

Group B: Switzerland 1st, Canada 2nd (+225 at DraftKings)

It might seem harsh to fade Bosnia and Herzegovina when they just saw off Italy in the playoffs. Canada are playing all three of their group matches at home, though, and this team is far more than Alphonso Davies.

Switzerland made light work of their qualifying group and have reached the knockout phase at every major tournament since 2014.

Group C: Morocco 1st, Brazil 2nd (+500 at DraftKings)

Are Brazil going to benefit from tournament know-how? Or has Carlo Ancelotti got too many post-peak players in his squad? This wager likely comes down to a straight shootout when the teams face one another, and a draw could be enough for Morocco to top the group if they get better results than Brazil in the other fixtures.

No one can tab Morocco as a dark horse after their semifinal appearance four years ago. This is just a very strong team capable of going toe-to-toe with any opponent.

Group D: USA and Türkiye to Finish Top Two (+160 at FanDuel)

Yes, we still believe in Türkiye. This is their first World Cup appearance since 2002, and they’ve won one Euros knockout match since 2008, but they drew with Spain in Sevilla in November and had some strong results in the 2024-25 Nations League.

All three hosts should earn automatic qualification. The United States aren’t going to be appearing in the last four or anything drastic, but they should do enough against Australia and Paraguay to finish in the top two.

Group E: Germany 1st, Ecuador 2nd (+155 at FanDuel)

A lot has been made of Ecuador’s defensive record in the build-up to this World Cup. La Tricolor are trying to reach the knockout round of the World Cup for only the second time in their history.

The Ivory Coast are a threat to Ecuador, but it would be a major shock if Germany dropped any points in this section.

Group F: Netherlands and Japan to Finish Top Two (+140 at FanDuel)

These odds are short, but there’s still value here. Tunisia have got very little tournament pedigree and have never made much of an impact at the World Cup. Sweden made it through the playoffs after a far from impressive showing in qualifying.

Japan showed us what they’re capable of four years ago and have demonstrated tactical flexibility since. The Netherlands are far from perfect, but they should get enough points to land in the top two.

Group G: Belgium 1st, Egypt 2nd (+180 at FanDuel)

This is a no-brainer. Belgium are clearly the best team in Group G. Egypt are a long way behind the Red Devils, but they’re also a fair distance ahead of Iran and New Zealand.

Belgium aren’t as formidable as they were in 2018 and 2022, yet this is still a team more than capable of going 100% in a favorable group.

Group H: Spain 1st, Uruguay 2nd, Cape Verde 3rd, Saudi Arabia 4th (+250 at DraftKings)

Going for an exact group forecast is twisting the rules a little given the premise of this article is focused on the top two, but we didn’t want to make a -300 pick of backing Spain and Uruguay to land first and second.

Cape Verde has lost one match since November 2024. Their squad is stronger than reputation would suggest, with players dotted across Europe’s major leagues. This will all fall into place if Cape Verde beat Saudi Arabia and Spain get the better of Uruguay.

Group I: Norway 1st, France 2nd (+350 at DraftKings)

Is this an overestimation of Norway? Perhaps. France are stacked in defense and attack, but there are questions about their midfield. Didier Deschamps team are beatable, as proven by their three Nations League losses in 2024-25.

Norway scored goals for fun in qualifying, including a drubbing of Italy in Milan in November. It’s not that far-fetched that Erling Haaland and co. upset Les Bleus.

Group J: Argentina 1st, Austria 2nd (+150 at FanDuel)

Austria to finish second is +130. You’re getting +150 to back Austria for second with Argentina topping the group – is there any way that Argentina finish outside the top two in a relatively favorable Group J?

We can get some slightly longer odds by adding in the defending champions to top the group. Austria are going to be fun to watch under Ralf Rangnick and look more formidable than Algeria. The added bonus of tournament experience at the last two European Championships stands the Austrians in good stead, too.

Group K: Colombia to Finish 2nd (-105 at FanDuel)

Colombia are going to finish ahead of DR Congo and Uzbekistan. Portugal are likely to beat both of those opponents emphatically.

This is all about when Colombia and Portugal face each other on matchday three. Portugal will be clear favorites and could lay down a marker in Miami as they move onto the knockout phase. Colombia will have to settle for second.

Group L: England 1st, Croatia 2nd (+135 at FanDuel)

One of the most predictable groups at this World Cup, it would be a massive shock if England or Croatia finished outside the top two.

Thomas Tuchel’s England aren’t going to be entertaining, but they will get the job done in an easy group. Croatia don’t pose the threat they did in 2018 or 2022, though they should have more than enough to beat Ghana and Panama.