2026 World Cup: Fate of the Previous Frontrunners

Do the pre-tournament favorites always perform well? 

This might seem like a stupid question. After all, the betting market isn’t often wrong, right? Well, not quite. While many previous World Cup favorites have thrived, plenty have disappointed. 

For example, at the last World Cup in Qatar, the Brazilians entered the tournament as +350 market leaders, though the Sambo Boys could not dance their way to glory, exiting the competition at the quarter-final stage. 

Can outsiders cause a serious upset? 

Could we see a big outsider go all the way in the US this summer? Never say never, but it’s not likely. 

Outsiders can definitely cause a splash without winning the tournament. To be honest, in the not too distant past, many nations given little chance in the pre-tournament betting have caused an upset by reaching the semis or even the final, drastically outplaying their odds, as we’ll see below. 

Below are some examples of outsiders performing well at the FIFA World Cup. 

As we can see, since the 2002 World Cup, several nations have gone deep into the competition despite starting the tournament as big outsiders, while despite not being huge longshots, many of the recent finalists have made it all the way to the last two even though they weren’t all that close to the front of the pre-tournament betting queue. 

Results of the recent favorites 

The table below shows how the pre-tournament favorites have performed at the last six World Cups.

Interestingly, only one of the pre-tournament favourites since 2002 has gone all the way, while only one of the last six pre-tournament market leaders has reached the final! 

What the table above tells us is that it’s not all about being the favorites in the betting before the tournament begins, not at all. If you'd bet $1 on each of the last six World Cup favorites, you would have invested $6, returning only $5.50. That's a return-on-investment of -8.33%. 

Pre-tournament odds of previous World Cup winners

Finally, let’s look at the odds of the World Cup winners since the turn of the century:

Not many of the recent World Cup winners have been what you’d call big-priced winners, five of the last six starting the tournament as second or third favorites at odds of +600 or less. 

Should you bet on the favorite? 

I suppose the big question is this: Should you bet on the favorite at the 2026 World Cup? Well, that’s entirely up to you. Given the recent performance of World Cup favorites, your bet will probably make it beyond the group stages, but not much else is guaranteed, and you really shouldn’t fall into the trap of thinking that favorites cannot falter!

Five of the last six World Cup favorites have not only failed to lift the trophy but have failed to reach the final of the tournament, which means that if you fancy a team that isn’t right at the very top of the market, don’t be scared. Take the plunge, recent history is in your favor.