What Did We Learn from Week 1 of the NFL Season?

Learnings from Week 1 of the season are going to impact NFL picks for Week 2 and beyond. In Melbourne, we saw the preseason title favorites put in a meek performance, and the defending AFC champions were largely unimpressive against the Seattle Seahawks in the season opener.

For all the wins by favored teams, there were others that failed to cover (looking at you, Detroit), and some much-hyped teams that fell far short of expectations.

The NFC South Might Be Even Worse Than Expected

It was an 0-4 start to the year for the NFC South. The New Orleans Saints were the division’s lone positive, with an impressive Tyler Shough-led comeback against the Detroit Lions only derailed by a missed field goal and a failed two-point conversion.

Elsewhere, the Carolina Panthers conceded 59 points to the Chicago Bears. Turnovers led to a six-point loss for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Atlanta Falcons offense was as putrid as expected.

The Falcons play the Panthers in Week 2, so the division should get its first win of the year. Tampa Bay will fancy its chances against the Cleveland Browns, but it doesn’t get any easier for the Saints as they face the Baltimore Ravens.

All-Time Bills Offense or Underwhelming Texans Defense?

The Houston Texans entered the season with a defense that many projected as the best in the NFL. At worst, it was expected to be in the top five. Houston conceded 36 points to the Buffalo Bills in Week 1.

Was this Buffalo’s offense being unstoppable? Or has the Texans’ defense been mis-evaluated?

Houston’s blueprint for Super Bowl contention was a spectacular defense and a solid offense. They need to be able to hold teams to under 20 points consistently to win games – scoring 31 and losing is not a feasible strategy for C.J. Stroud leading a middling offense.

The encouraging sign for the Texans is that they were in the top 10 in pressure rate without having to blitz too often. Perhaps it was simply Josh Allen being the best quarterback on the planet, and Buffalo is going to have an NFL-leading offense. Keep a close eye on the Texans’ defense fares in the next couple of weeks.

Formidable-Looking Chiefs

Andy Reid has been an NFL coach for longer than most people stay in a career. Monday Night Football saw Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs register the third-most rushing yards in any game coached by Reid.

Kansas City did so behind a massive night from Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III. It was also achieved against a Denver Broncos team with the sixth-best success rate when defending the rush last season.

Patrick Mahomes, coming back from injury, rushed for a 15-yard score and didn’t show many signs of rush. Mahomes has never had a truly dominant rushing attack. Imagine what the Chiefs can be if they have this sort of ground attack going forward.

Calm Down on the Rams

Yes, the Rams had seemingly punted the opening game with their scheduling. It was still an alarmingly poor performance, though, and they are now without Myles Garrett for the foreseeable future.

It’s too early to suggest it’s a lost season, but it doesn’t take much for this supposed superteam to crumble. They were thoroughly outplayed by the San Francisco 49ers in Melbourne en route to scoring a grand total of seven points in front of a whopping crowd at the MCG.

It isn’t far-fetched to suggest that the Rams are the third-best team in their division, even with Sam Darnold’s injury and fair concerns about the long-term health of the Niners.

Ben Johnson Targets History

Bears head coach Ben Johnson wants to break the record for the most points scored in an NFL season. Fifty-nine (59!) in Week 1 is a hell of a start.

Chicago’s 0.37 EPA per play was 0.09 ahead of any other team. Caleb Williams ranked fifth in average depth of target. Remarkably, this offense caught fire without much production from Colston Loveland or Rome Odunze.

There was plenty of play action, with Johnson’s diverse offense keeping the Panthers guessing. Williams still had to showcase his all-around skillset, however, as he led the league in scrambling rate and faced plenty of pressure from Carolina.

Variety was paramount for Chicago. Johnson went to plenty of 13 personnel, but there was no risk of becoming predictable with the amount of 11, 12, and 21 personnel they ran.

These Bears are must-watch in Week 2 as they face the Minnesota Vikings, who are likely without Kyler Murray due to a concussion.