Nations League Picks & Predictions
Check out our free Nations League predictions, as well as our expert predictions for the UEFA Nations League soccer matches (2026–2027). Lots of information to help with your sports betting!
Nations League Format & Picks
The UEFA Nations League is a fairly recent European competition, created by UEFA in 2018 and featuring all 54 national teams on the continent. The tournament is held every two years, during seasons when no major tournament (World Cup or Euro) is on the calendar.
At the end of the 2026-2027 Nations League, between 2 and 4 teams in total will earn a spot in the Euro 2028 playoffs, giving the competition far more weight than the friendlies that are usually played. It's one to follow every edition for your soccer picks!
Who Wins the 2026-2027 Nations League?
We're in for a great 2026-2027 Nations League. A tight fight among a good number of countries was always on the cards.
Luis de la Fuente's Spain, reigning European and World champions, are naturally among the favorites. The same goes for Zinedine Zidane's France, who will use this tournament to coach their first matches in charge of Les Bleus. With a fiery attack (Mbappé, Olise, Cherki, Dembélé, Barcola, Doué...) and a solid center-back pairing, there's plenty of reason to expect a strong showing.
We also see England climbing into the favorites, as they've consistently shown up in the big tournaments lately. But we picture more of a duel between La Roja and Les Bleus, and for now we give a slight edge to the nation that just claimed its second World Cup title, notably by outclassing France in the semifinal... Our 2026-2027 Nations League winner prediction: Spain win!
2026/2027 Nations League Futures
- Spain +250
- France +300
- England +450
- Portugal +550
- Netherlands +1100
- Germany +1200
- Belgium +1800
- Norway +2500
- Italy +2500
- Greece +3000
- Denmark +5000
Odds found on FanDuel.
Our Predictions for the 2026-2027 Nations League Groups
Split into four divisions in total, the 54 European national teams have been ranked by level and placed into different groups. Here's how they break down.
Nations League A
League A features 16 of the best nations in Europe.
Divided into 4 groups of 4, they'll battle to finish in the top two spots and advance to the quarterfinals, before looking ahead to the Final Four and a shot at the 2026-2027 Nations League title.
The 3rd-place team in each group plays a playoff to stay up, while the last-place team is automatically relegated. A suspenseful competition awaits, with plenty of heavyweight clashes on the schedule! Check out the group lineups below.
Group 1: France, Italy, Belgium, Turkey
We're running it back with the same teams, or nearly. In this first Nations League group, we find Les Bleus, Belgium, and Italy, just like last edition. Turkey replaces Israel this time, which makes things even trickier, since the Turks look stronger on paper!
France were, and remain, our pick to finish in first place, having beaten Belgium twice and Italy at home in the last meetings from the 2024-2025 edition. They've beaten the Red Devils twice again and currently sit on top with 10 points after 4 matches.
The second spot looked far more up for grabs! While the Azzurri have been in decline for years now, the Red Devils remain very good opponents, and Turkey have been improving enormously for a while. It will be a tough fight to finish in the top two.
Before the competition kicked off, we gave a very slight edge to Mark van Bommel's Belgium, and that's still the case with 2 matchdays to go. The Belgians host Italy on the final matchday and will have a chance to finish second.
Group 2: Germany, Netherlands, Serbia, Greece
This second group is less stacked than the first, but it still features two outsiders for the title: Germany and the Netherlands, both of whom have a new head coach: Jürgen Klopp for the Mannschaft and Xavi for the Oranje.
These two teams were our picks to reach the quarterfinals of this 2026-2027 Nations League before the tournament kicked off. While the Netherlands are well placed for now, Germany will need to do better to get ahead of Greece in the final two matches.
Serbia have good players, but the results haven't been what was expected in recent years. Greece have talented players too, and we didn't expect them to bother the two heavyweights, but so far they're managing to.
Group 3: Spain, Croatia, England, Czech Republic
The level in this 3rd group is also high, with Spain and England, two of the title favorites, Croatia, an outsider, and the Czech Republic, who have very good players and shouldn't be underestimated.
For quarterfinal qualification, we still gave the edge to La Roja and the Three Lions, who looked a notch above the other two nations. After all, these are the winner and the third-place finisher of the last World Cup in 2026.
In our view, Croatia were due to finish 3rd, and the Czech Republic, despite all their qualities, were due to finish last and drop to League B for the next edition. With 2 matchdays to go, we're heading straight for that scenario.
Group 4: Portugal, Denmark, Norway, Wales
A very strong final group, with two Scandinavian sides, Denmark and Norway, joined by the defending champions, Portugal, and Wales.
Here, our experts had a very clear view on quarterfinal qualification: it should be Portugal and Norway! Portugal have a squad quality that nearly every country would envy, while Norway have one of the best generations in their history, with the cyborg Erling Haaland leading the way.
Denmark, in a slight slump lately, should still be able to finish 3rd and avoid relegation to the second division, which looks likely for a Welsh side that should struggle to compete and pull off a surprise. With 2 matches to go, Portugal are backing up our prediction with 12 points out of a possible 12, but Norway have run into some trouble, losing 3 of their 4 matches. They can still qualify, though!
Nations League B
In League B, Scotland, Switzerland, Slovenia, and North Macedonia make up Group 1. It's a very interesting group featuring some strong, attack-minded nations on paper. Before the competition kicked off, we gave a slight edge to Switzerland for first place, but we can easily picture a great fight with the Scots and Slovenes. Switzerland have won their first 4 matches and are close to promotion.
In the second group, we find Hungary, Ukraine, Georgia, and Northern Ireland. Suspense was expected here: before the tournament began, we saw a big battle among all 4 teams! That's exactly how it's played out so far, as everyone can still qualify.
Group 3 was made up of Israel, Austria, the Republic of Ireland, and Kosovo. Austria, who have a quality squad, started as our very slight favorite, but you had to be careful not to take their opponents lightly, as they have their own strengths. For now, the Austrians are in a good position to move up a division.
Finally, Poland, Bosnia, Romania, and Sweden make up the 4th and final group. Here, we gave a slight edge to Sweden, who have a great squad and put together an interesting 2026 World Cup. The Swedes are in first place in the group with 2 matchdays to go.
Nations League C
Albania, Finland, Belarus, and San Marino make up the first group. The top three teams here should be battling for promotion to League B, and we gave the edge to the Albanians, who are in first place after 4 matches.
The second group includes Montenegro, Armenia, Cyprus, and Latvia. Here, we gave the edge to Montenegro, who are also in first place after 4 matchdays and well positioned to move up.
Group 3 is made up of Kazakhstan, Slovakia, the Faroe Islands, and Moldova. In this group, we felt the Slovaks started with a clear advantage, and they have everything they need to move up to League B. That's exactly how it's gone after 4 matchdays (first place with 10 points and a 6-point lead over 2nd).
Finally, Iceland, Bulgaria, Estonia, and Luxembourg make up Group 4! We expected a good fight between the top two nations, with a slight lean toward Iceland in our view, who showed some great things in 2026 World Cup qualifying. Currently in first place with 2 matches still to play, they're well positioned to move up to League B.
Nations League D
Lastly, in League D, it's hard to make a call on the first group since the level is extremely even: Andorra are joined by Gibraltar and Malta. For now, Malta lead with 7 points after 3 matchdays.
The second group features Lithuania, Azerbaijan, and Liechtenstein. It's tough to make a call here given how even things look, but we give a slight edge to Lithuania! Everything will be decided during the next international break, as Lithuania and Azerbaijan are separated by just 1 point.
New to Sports Betting? How Does the Nations League Work and What's the Format?
While the Nations League might seem complicated at first glance, it's actually pretty simple. The 54 participating national teams were ranked, in the first edition, into 4 divisions based on their UEFA coefficients (which factor in past performances, among other things). These 4 divisions, called League A, League B, League C, and League D, are themselves split into several groups of 3 to 4 teams.
A concrete example from League A: France are placed in Group 1 in 2026-2027 (alongside Italy and Belgium). In that same league, Germany and the Netherlands are in Group 2. Spain are in Group 3 with Croatia and England, among others, while Portugal, the defending champions, are in Group 4. That means some great matchups this year, as has been the case since the tournament's first edition!
In the lower divisions (B, C, and D), the setup is largely the same, with different groups made up of different national teams. League D, home to the weakest teams, has two groups of three nations. There's a promotion and relegation system that rewards the smaller teams, who can move up and play with the big boys.
One new wrinkle since the last edition in 2024-2025: the addition of quarterfinals (previously the tournament went straight to the semifinals) and playoffs to stay up in the different leagues.
Key Things to Know About the Nations League Format for Your Soccer Predictions
- 54 teams take part in the group stage
- The group stage runs from September 24 to November 17, 2026
- The top two teams from each of the 4 League A groups qualify for the quarterfinals
- The 3rd-place team in each League A group plays a playoff to stay up
- The 4th-place team in each League A group is relegated to League B
- A promotion and relegation system also applies to the other leagues
- Quarterfinals (two-legged ties) take place March 25-30, 2027
- Semifinals (single match) on June 9-10, 2027
- Final and third-place match on June 13, 2027
Before you start making predictions and placing bets on this Nations League, keep this tournament format in mind. It can help you avoid some traps in the final matches of the group stage, for example.
What's at Stake in the UEFA Nations League?
In the previous edition (2024-2025) of the Nations League, the two best teams from the group stages earned playoff spots to reach the 2026 World Cup. That's an extra incentive for the tournament, helping keep players motivated and adding some spice to your Nations League predictions. And for 2030, the Nations League will once again hand out tickets!
We're now a long way from friendlies with little on the line. For this 5th edition (2026-2027), the qualifying spots up for grabs are for Euro 2028, which will be hosted across 5 nations (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Ireland). That should keep every national team hungry!
For nations that didn't manage to qualify directly through the Euro qualifiers, the Nations League results offer a second chance. Between 2 and 4 teams will take part in playoffs, with one last shot at reaching Euro 2028 in the UK and Ireland.
As you can see, the Nations League gives up to 4 countries in total an extra opportunity to qualify for the European Championship, even without earning their ticket through the qualifying groups!
Our Tips for Making Good Predictions on 2026-2027 Nations League Matches
Now that we've shared our predictions for the competition and covered the tournament format, here are our tips for making smart predictions on every Nations League match.
These tips will help you bet at your best on online sportsbooks and get you closer to the best possible prediction.
Our top tips:
- Check each country's form
- Analyze each nation's squad
- Factor in rivalry and history
- Analyze what's at stake in the match
- Take advantage of the best odds
By keeping these tips in mind, you should be able to make better predictions across the whole competition. Want more detail? It's right below!
Check Each Country's Form
First, you'll want to analyze the form of the teams involved in your bet. What have their recent results been?
Has the team you want to back just strung together a run of good results across all competitions? Or have they just hit a rough patch?
If a big nation hasn't won in 7 matches and faces a team that's weaker on paper but unbeaten in 10, it might be smarter to lean toward the second...
Analyze Each Nation's Squad
Next, it's also very important to know the squads of both teams in the match you want to bet on.
Are the key players in form? Are they injured or suspended? Are there minor knocks that lower the chances of a player featuring or playing at full strength? Is a player missing from the squad for any reason?
We know, for example, that France will be weaker without Maignan and Mbappé. And this tip applies to every sport and every competition when you bet.
It matters even more for the "smaller nations," who rely heavily on two or three individuals to perform. Think of Georgia, with Mikautadze, Kvaratskhelia, and Mamardashvili, or Sweden without Viktor Gyökeres, Alexander Isak, or Dejan Kulusevski.
Factor in Rivalry and History
It's also critical to pay special attention to any rivalries between two national teams, along with the history of their recent head-to-head meetings.
For a France vs. Portugal or France vs. Belgium matchup, for example, the rivalry runs deep among fans and players alike, dating back to 2016 and 2018, and open, free-flowing games are rare in these fixtures. We saw it again in the recent meetings at Euro 2024 (a 1-0 win over the Red Devils and a 0-0 draw won on penalties against Portugal) and in the last Nations League against the Belgians (2-0 and 1-2). Only one match hit the over 2.5!
If you spot a matchup between historic rivals, be cautious. It's much the same dynamic as a derby in a domestic league, or close to it!
Analyze What's at Stake in the Match
Next, don't forget to analyze what's really on the line! In a competition like the UEFA Nations League, there are plenty of stakes, like promotion to a higher division, staying up in the current one, the league title, or potential qualifying spots for upcoming tournaments.
Before betting, consider each team's ambitions to gauge their real motivation to perform. A team that's stronger on paper but has nothing left to play for could be beaten by a weaker team fighting to stay up, for example. Worth factoring in.
Take Advantage of the Best Odds
Finally, to succeed at sports betting on the Nations League, don't forget to pick the right sportsbook to place your bet. As you know, different sportsbooks can offer different odds on the same match, which means different potential payouts.
To grow your bankroll as much as possible, choose the sportsbook offering the best odds on the match you're betting on. To quickly find out which one is best for you, check out our page dedicated to the best sportsbooks!
By keeping these tips in mind before every bet, you'll put every chance on your side to land as many wagers as possible on this 2026-2027 Nations League.
Other factors matter too, of course, but these are the major ones we think you should weigh before betting on the competition!
What Not to Do With Your Nations League Predictions
Following the tips and best practices we just shared will naturally be very important. But to land as many of your picks as possible on the competition, there are also a few bad habits you'll want to leave behind.
Before placing a bet on the Nations League, here are a few things to avoid, among others:
- Only considering a team's reputation
- Betting on your favorite team thinking they'll automatically win
- Ignoring what's at stake in the match and everything surrounding it
- Betting right after a loss to chase your money back
- Ignoring national teams' tactics and style of play
- Betting live too often (there's no time for the analysis you need)
- Betting on favorites without analyzing the match
By avoiding these habits, your predictions on 2026-2027 Nations League matches will naturally become more reliable, so keep all of this in mind.
Stats for Your 2026-2027 Nations League Predictions
To make good Nations League picks, it helps to know the key stats. Here are the numbers our experts think you should know before placing your bets at sportsbooks.
These stats come from the last edition and should make your job easier for 2026-2027. Note that the numbers cover all divisions:
- Home wins: 45%
- Draws: 24%
- Away wins: 31%
- Average goals per match: 2.72
- Over 0.5 goals: 91%
- Under 0.5 goals: 9%
- Over 1.5 goals: 74%
- Under 1.5 goals: 26%
- Over 2.5 goals: 52%
- Under 2.5 goals: 48%
- Over 3.5 goals: 30%
- Under 3.5 goals: 70%
- Over 4.5 goals: 15%
- Under 4.5 goals: 85%
- Both teams to score: yes: 47%
- Average goals per match at home: 1.58
- Average goals per match away: 1.15
- Average shots per match: 19.77
- Win by 2+ goals (spread): 42.5% of matches
- Exact score 0-0: 8.7% of matches
- Exact score 1-1: 8.2% of matches
- Most common scoreline: 1-0 or 0-1 (17.4% of matches)
- 15-minute window with the most goals: 76th-90th minute (22%)
Among other things, you can see it could be worthwhile to bet on matches that aren't too tight in this 2026-2027 Nations League, or on double chance (home or draw) bets to protect yourself.
Over 1.5 or under 2.5 are also worth a look, and even over 3.5 for the more adventurous! And if you like exact score bets, you'll notice that, paradoxically, 1-0 (or 0-1) was the most common result of the last edition.
With the odds at online sportsbooks looking great on these bet types, especially the exact score, it would be a shame to pass them up. Take it from the experts.
In a Nutshell: How Do You Make Good Predictions on Nations League Matches?
To succeed with your predictions on the 2026-2027 Nations League, there's no secret: just follow all the tips we've shared on this page. Analyzing the matches and everything around them, studying the competition's and each team's stats, following our betting tips, and, just as importantly, avoiding the habits to steer clear of are the keys to growing your winnings at online sportsbooks.
Don't bet without studying a match and its key players. Crucial information could change your mind, or confirm your pick. If you don't have time to do all of that, check out our experts' predictions on the competition, with 100% of matches covered.
You also need to manage your spending on sports betting wisely: this should remain a form of entertainment above all, and it should never become a source of income. Once you've got all of that in mind, good luck with your Nations League bets!
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