Best Bets to Make or Miss the NFL Playoffs
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Bettors are spoilt for choice when making preseason NFL picks. Win totals and division winner markets are accompanied by a range of other futures, including bets on whether teams will make or miss the playoffs.
To add an extra element, sportsbooks allow us to create parlays in the make/miss playoff markets. This is a good way to get some decent odds by combining a number of shorter prices.
Saints to Make the Playoffs (+205)
Four wins in their last five games of the 2025 campaign can be put down to a favorable schedule. The New Orleans Saints still finished 6-11, so, understandably, the betting markets aren’t all that high on their 2026 credentials.
There are signs that the Saints could contend in a weak division, though. Only two teams have an easier schedule, they were 10th in EPA per play on defense in 2025, and Tyler Shough looked like a more than competent NFL quarterback in his rookie year.
Jordyn Tyson’s injury is a blow, but New Orleans had a strong offseason with David Edwards, Travis Etienne Jr., and Kaden Eliss arriving in free agency.
Chargers, Broncos, & Texans to Make the Playoffs (+355)
Justin Herbert leading a Mike McDaniel offense. Two great defenses. Picking two teams in the same division might not seem like the most efficient parlay path, but there shouldn’t be too much concern about the Los Angeles Chargers or Denver Broncos.
The Houston Texans, meanwhile, are expected to be the league’s best defense. This offense should be more effective with David Montgomery as a workhorse back, and C.J. Stroud only needs to be mediocre for this team to win 11+ games in the regular season.
This is basically a bet on the Chargers or Broncos to claim one of the three wild card spots. That is exceptional value given how stacked these three teams are.
Browns, Commanders, & Falcons to Miss the Playoffs (-110)
The Cleveland Browns are not going to make the playoffs with the Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders tandem at quarterback. The same can be said of the Atlanta Falcons with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr.
The Washington Commanders can be more optimistic with Jayden Daniels, but they have the fourth-hardest schedule and ultimately lack talent across the roster. Washington was in the bottom three in EPA against the pass and run in 2025.
These odds mean an implied probability of just over 50%. Does Washington have anywhere near a 50/50 shot at making the postseason? It’s very unlikely they’re higher than third in the division, which leaves them fighting with three NFC North teams and two NFC West teams for two wild card places.
49ers to Miss the Playoffs (+128)
Yes, the San Francisco 49ers have made the playoffs in four of the last five years. And yes, the Niners have the seventh-easiest schedule in the NFL.
It’s still worth considering that San Francisco could miss the playoffs. They have to play the two NFC favorites twice apiece, and they’re on the road against the Dallas Cowboys, Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s an older, injury-prone roster. Ricky Pearsall is out of the year. Dre Greenlaw, Nick Bosa, and George Kittle are on the injury report before Week 1. Is it that far-fetched that the Niners miss out on the playoffs?
Panthers to Make the Playoffs (+250)
Someone has to win the NFC South. Last season, the Carolina Panthers had that ‘honor’ with an 8-9 record earning a playoff berth. Carolina then added Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd in the offseason to fortify its defense and spent its first two draft picks on improving its offensive and defensive lines.
A daunting schedule is the biggest reason to fade the Panthers. They’re 30th in strength of schedule, and things could get ugly if they don’t win on the road against the Falcons and Browns in Weeks 2 and 3.
The Panthers don’t need to win 12 games given how unexciting the NFC South is. Eight wins might again be enough to win the division, and that’s hardly out of reach.
