Evaluating the Tight MLB Wild-Card Races
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Four teams are within four games of the final wild-card spot in the American League. In the National League, it looks like a straight shootout between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks with a month to go.
How much teams have to play for is a key factor to consider when making MLB picks down the stretch.
American League
So the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are locked into the top two spots, with Boston holding a 5.5-game cushion. As it stands, the Cleveland Guardians are in the final wild-card place with a mere half-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles.
The Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays are one game behind Baltimore. At 3.5, 5.5, and six games back, respectively, the Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, and Detroit Tigers will still hold playoff ambitions, even though the Tigers are out at +5000 to play in the postseason.
Detroit has gone 7-13 over its last 20, losing ground in the process. Seattle and Minnesota are 12-18 over their last 30. Toronto is the team that has really surged since the trade deadline, despite trading away Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho, and Jeff Hoffman.
Six games remaining between the Jays and Orioles are going to be pivotal. Toronto and Cleveland also have a three-game set. Seattle, meanwhile, has the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, including 14 games against the Los Angeles Angels and the Athletics.
Baltimore has series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Yankees, and Red Sox. Taking at least four against Toronto is paramount for the Orioles, who haven’t set the world alight in any discipline so far.
Texas has been trending in the wrong direction with offensive struggles accompanied by a mediocre pitching staff.
AL Value Bets
- Seattle Mariners to make the playoffs (+540)
- Toronto Blue Jays to make the playoffs (+300)
- Cleveland Guardians to miss the playoffs (-102)
Cleveland was the most complete team in August. The lineup was solid, which was backed up by decent numbers from the rotation and bullpen. They’ve got a lower ceiling than Toronto and Seattle, though, and a 23-32 record against teams above .500 is concerning with their schedule.
A rotation that ranked ninth in xERA in August could be a foundation for a late charge from the Mariners. The offense has underachieved all year, but Cal Raleigh heated up last month, which gives some reason for optimism.
Toronto is one of the hottest teams in baseball, despite continued offensive woes. The rotation and bullpen were dominant throughout August, and they will be in the box seat if they take six or more wins from their nine games against Baltimore and Cleveland.
National League
Tied on 78-60, the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies are going to the playoffs. Behind them, half a game separates the Padres and Diamondbacks, with the latter holding a 3.5-game lead over the Miami Marlins (17-27 since July 9).
The St. Louis Cardinals have endured a similar demise to the Marlins. St. Louis has gone 17-25 since July 17 to fall to five games behind the Padres. In the mix for much of the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates can relate to this frustration, having gone 14-22 since July 22.
What looked like a five-team battle for the final wild-card spot is probably just down to Arizona and San Diego.
San Diego has been the stronger overall team, with an 18-12 record over its last 30. Arizona has gone 17-13 over the same period, though both their rotation and bullpen have been in the bottom 10 in xERA since Aug. 1.
Miami’s schedule is too difficult to suggest they can arrest their long-running slide. San Diego and Arizona have a three-game series to come at the end of the month, which could prove decisive. The Padres also get four against the Colorado Rockies and three against the San Francisco Giants to counterbalance series with the Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
NL Value Bets
- San Diego Padres to earn six seed (-130)
- St. Louis Cardinals to make the playoffs (+4000)
- Arizona Diamondbacks to miss the playoffs (-220)
There’s value backing the Cardinals at this price. St. Louis needs the Padres and Diamondbacks to crumble in September, but nine games against the Rockies and Giants give them a chance to put the pressure on.
Series with the Washington Nationals and the Pirates should see the Cards improve their record, too. The offense is ninth in xwOBA since Aug. 1 and the rotation has been solid.
Arizona’s remaining schedule is considerably more difficult than San Diego’s. There’s nothing to choose between the team’s Pythagorean win-loss records, but the Padres have a stronger lineup, a more reliable rotation, and a much better bullpen.
