ALCS & NLCS Beautifully Poised After Two Games Apiece

The ALCS and NLCS have each played two games. In the American League, it’s tied at one win apiece in what promises to be a deep series between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians.

Things are more perilous at this juncture in the National League. The threepeat-chasing Los Angeles Dodgers are two games down to the Milwaukee Brewers, with Shohei Ohtani in a prolonged slump unlike any he has suffered in his big-league career. Another loss for the Dodgers on Wednesday would effectively end their pursuit of history.

With the prospect of a lockout looming, baseball fans should cherish each of their opportunities to make MLB picks before the beginning of what could be a very long offseason.

All Even Heading to Cleveland

A perennial playoff team, Cleveland is aiming for its first World Series appearance since a gut-wrenching loss to the Chicago Cubs in 2016. The Guardians staged a dramatic Game 1 comeback at Tropicana Field, but their offense was becalmed in Game 2 to ensure the series is level as the teams travel to Ohio.

Tampa Bay exceeded all preseason expectations to lead the American League with 98 wins. Trade deadline acquisition Freddy Peralta, another pitcher rejuvenated by the Rays, was dominant in Tuesday’s win. It was crucial the Rays got on the board in Game 2, with the Guardians expected to hand the ball to their ace, Gavin Williams, in Game 3.

Williams tormented the Chicago White Sox in the ALDS. He gives up hard contact, but he’s got swing-and-miss stuff, which makes for an interesting matchup against this high-contact Rays offense.

Griffin Jax is getting the ball in an opener role for the Rays. He’s been exceptional through five relief appearances so far this season – Nick Martinez is the probable option for a bulk role.

Small Markets Doesn’t Mean Subpar Teams

Some commentary around this series has bordered on condescending. Yes, they are two of the three smallest payrolls. Yes, casual fans probably won’t be enamored with seeing the Rays or Guardians in the World Series.

Lower salary outgoings does not equate to subpar teams, though. The Rays and Guardians are superbly built. They might not be packed with household names, but they have stars in Junior Caminero and José Ramírez. Plus, their brand of old-school baseball fits with what so many fans have been craving.

In the regular season, both were in the top seven in stolen bases and ranked in the five lowest strikeout rates. Contact, speed, and defense are vital in this ALCS. And these are two deep pitching staffs, as reflected by both teams ranking in the top 12 in xERA.

Pressure on Los Angeles

The Dodgers’ dynasty might depend on how Blake Snell and Robert Gasser fare on Wednesday night. Los Angeles is teetering in the NLCS, having lost 2-1 and 7-4 in the first two games of the series.

There are rumors that Dave Roberts could bench Ohtani, who has a .455 OPS since Aug. 18. The four-time MVP isn’t the only Dodgers hitter struggling. Only three Dodgers have a wRC+ above 92 in the postseason – Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández have been particularly ice-cold.

The pressure on the Dodgers is enormous given the expectation that they would complete a threepeat, but this team is accustomed to being in the spotlight. With Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Tarik Skubal, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto set to pitch the next four games, it’s not out of the question that Los Angeles wins this in six, despite Yamamoto’s Game 2 woes.

Milwaukee is two games away from its first Fall Classic appearance since 1982. They have been close before, losing the 2018 NLCS in seven games, but this might be the most complete team in franchise history. The lineup is deep, the bullpen has been as advertised, and the rotation is hardly a glaring weakness, even if there’s a sizeable drop-off behind Jacob Misiorowski.

True Heavyweight Meeting

This is only the sixth League Championship Series to feature two 100-win teams. They took different paths to get here – Milwaukee’s payroll is $195 million less than the Dodgers’.

The offenses are similar, both ranking in the top three in wRC+, both walking in more than 10% of plate appearances in the regular season, and with neither striking out at a wildly high rate.

They were also the top two teams in xERA in the regular season. By that metric, both were in the top three for their rotation and bullpen. Los Angeles’ bullpen had a higher K-BB%, but that was one of very few differences.

These are the two best teams in baseball this year. It would be an upset if the Dodgers didn’t make the World Series, but that reflects the talent on Los Angeles’ roster rather than downplaying the overall strength of this Brewers team.