Best Player Prop Bets For Week 9 of the NFL Season
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Week 9 of the NFL season kicks off with the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. Our focus, however, is on Sunday’s slate with a packed schedule, featuring the Panthers in Green Bay, New England hosting Atlanta, and the 7-1 Colts facing the Steelers.
The headline contest is a duel between the NFL’s two best quarterbacks in the late window. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are two of the favorites for MVP. Both teams have suffered some surprising losses early in the season, so their contest could prove pivotal for AFC seeding.
Having surveyed the slate, here are our five best player prop picks for Week 9:
Tucker Kraft Over 4.5 Receptions (-138)
Tucker Kraft has had 12 receptions over the last two games. He’s had 19 targets in that period, which is five more than any other Packer.
Carolina has only been a middling defense against tight ends so far this season. Kraft has been overshadowed by the play of Jake Ferguson, but he’s clearly one of the league’s elite players at the position. Jordan Love looks for Kraft regularly, whether picking him on a crossing route in short-yardage situations or firing downfield.
Patrick Jones II is on injured reserve. Two other Carolina linebackers sat out practice on Wednesday. The Panthers are lacking depth in their linebacker corps, which plays in Kraft’s favor.
C.J. Stroud Under 225.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Denver has the highest pressure rate. The Broncos allow the second-fewest yards per pass attempt. The pass defense won’t be as dominant without Pat Surtain II, who is listed as doubtful, but this Broncos team should still be able to keep Stroud under 225.5 passing yards.
Houston’s offensive line impressed against the 49ers in Week 8. Aireontae Ersery had a particularly strong performance. While that’s a promising sign for C.J. Stroud’s offense, blocking a depleted Niners’ defense isn’t the same as trying to handle this Denver pass rush.
Stroud cleared this in the last four games, but that run includes some very favorable matchups. He went under in the first three games of the season.
Oronde Gadsden Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Oronde Gadsden has 409 receiving yards over his last three games. He has emphatically cleared that line in each of those games, and his snap count has leapt from 53.7% in Week 5 to 75% or higher in each of the last three weeks.
The Chargers are keeping Gadsden on the field regardless of whether it’s a set with one, two, or three wideouts. His usage is the most stable among all Los Angeles receivers – it’s no surprise he’s been targeted 22 times over the last three games.
Justin Herbert has consistently found Gadsden. He’s run routes on 83% of passing plays over the last two weeks, per Hayden Winks. This line is far too low.
Daniel Jones Over 21.5 Pass Completions (-130)
The Steelers concede the most yards per play on defense of any team with a .500 record or better. Only five teams have conceded more yards after the catch. The Bengals and Commanders are the only teams with more missed tackles.
This is an ideal matchup for the Colts. Indianapolis leads the league in points per game, offensive touchdowns per game, and yards per offensive play.
Pittsburgh is in the bottom 10 in opponent pass completion percentage. Daniel Jones has gone over this line in five out of eight games. With how Aaron Rodgers has played, the Steelers should be able to score enough points to make this competitive, which should help avoid a rush-heavy gamescript.
Jordan Mason Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
With Aaron Jones’ return, Jordan Mason amassed only four rushing attempts in Week 8. Mason had a mere three yards in those runs and caught one target for three yards.
The former Niner had his lowest snap count of the year at 34.7%. Minnesota is facing a Lions team that has conceded the third-fewest rushing yards to running backs in 2025 and ranks in the top 10 in yards per rush.
The return of J.J. McCarthy from injury might lead to the Vikings leaning more heavily on their ground game, but the gamescript is going to force Minnesota to throw the ball. Even with the Vikings easing Jones back into action, this line is far too high for Mason.
