MNF: Best Bets for 49ers vs Colts

by Tyler Doty

image MNF: Best Bets for 49ers vs Colts
The 49ers are looking to better their playoff seeding as they head to Indianapolis, where Philip Rivers looks to save the spiraling Colts. Here are our top player props for December 22.

It hasn’t been a good time for the Indianapolis Colts.

When Halloween arrived, the Colts were 7-1, seemingly on track to claim the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Daniel Jones was playing brilliantly, and the Colts looked like the team to beat. Now they’re 8-6, and they’re likely finished as far as the postseason goes. They still have a chance if they run the table, but with Jacksonville and Houston continuing to pile up wins, that doesn’t seem likely.

The 49ers are in an opportunistic spot in this 49ers vs Colts pick. With the Rams losing to Seattle, San Francisco can now play for certain matchups. If the 49ers can get the No. 5 seed, they’ll land the NFC South champion in round 1, and likely avoid the Rams or Seahawks until the NFC title game. If they can beat the Seahawks on the final day, so much the better: the playoffs would go through San Francisco.

But for San Francisco to get there, they have a gauntlet: this game, plus Chicago and Seattle. So this is one where the 49ers really can’t afford to get caught. They should be aggressive, which lends itself to prop plays. Here are a few to keep in mind.

Philip Rivers, Under 157.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

This is an anemic number, but it’s still too high for Rivers and the Colts. The Indianapolis offense is desperate, which it had to be to turn to a 44-year-old retired quarterback. Rivers just doesn’t have it anymore, which he showed the first time the Colts had him. Indianapolis is just plugging him in to not lose the game, which does not work against a good pass defense like San Francisco.

The 49ers will likely dare Rivers to try to beat them, and it’s not going to happen. As great as he was during his career, he no longer has the physical abilities to lead an NFL offense. If San Francisco has even a decent day on defense, Rivers should come under this.

Jauan Jennings, Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Jennings’ total is well within reach, given the number of targets he’s been getting. He hasn’t gotten fewer than five targets in any of his past five games, and with Ricky Pearsall either out entirely or limited, Jennings should get several more looks from Brock Purdy.

The concern here is that San Francisco puts the Colts away too early and just hits them with Christian McCaffrey for the night. But the Colts have a good run defense; passing is how you bury Indianapolis. Jennings gives the 49ers a big edge there.

Michael Pittman Jr., Under 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

This number shouldn’t be possible for a wide receiver of Pittman’s talents. Yet he has fallen short of this number four times in his past five games. Only Jacksonville allowed him to top this, and he got 12 targets in that game.

Rivers isn’t going to look his way that often. Quarterbacks with limited mobility, limited physical skills and excellent awareness look tight end or running back first. That’s why Tyler Warren is expected to be the Colts’ leading receiver, per the lines. Rivers isn’t likely to put Pittman in position for a big play when he does look that direction, and he’s not likely to look Pittman’s way very often in the first place. Expect another low-production night here.