NFL Player Props: Best Bets For Week 16

Week 16 of the NFL season features some blockbuster matchups, including the Bears hosting the Packers, a divisional duel in Carolina, and the Jaguars visiting the 12-2 Denver Broncos.

It’s one of the best NFL slates of the season. Playoff battles are heating up. The small matter of the draft order is also constantly moving.

D’Andre Swift Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

D’Andre Swift has hit this over in three consecutive games. He’s averaging 95.3 yards on the ground over that period and 78.5 over the last six.

Green Bay has an excellent run defense, but this line still seems too low for how Swift has been playing of late. There’s a good chance the gamescript will favor a heavy rushing offense from Chicago, and it’s no secret the Bears have an inventive and diverse run playbook.

They find ways to get Swift into advantageous positions. Their blocking is very good. It wouldn’t be surprising if he had another 100+ yard game.

Jaxson Dart Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Jaxson Dart has hit this over in six of his nine starts. He’s also gone over 50 rushing yards in three of his last four games. While the Giants don’t want him to keep putting his body on the line, his scrambles are still integral.

Minnesota is below league average in opponent EPA per rush. They are one of the bottom 10 teams in missed tackles on the season and have nothing to play for. It might only take a couple of runs for Dart to reach 33 yards on the ground.

There’s certainly some value at this price. We’d be interested even if the line moved to 35.5. Consider a higher alternate line if it’s available at your sportsbook.

Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)

Josh Allen has registered six passing touchdowns over the last two weeks. He’s had three passing scores in each week, putting the playoff-chasing Bills on his back with a couple of vintage performances.

Only seven teams have a higher touchdown rate in the red zone than Buffalo. Of players with more than 50 red zone passing attempts, only Kyler Murray has a better completion percentage than Allen.

Cleveland is a great defense, but it’s worth noting their red zone defense hasn’t been that impressive. They are below average in opponent touchdown frequency inside the 20 and they have conceded a touchdown in more than 72% of opponent red zone trips over the last three weeks.

Breece Hall Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Saints have the third-best run defense in the NFL, per EPA. Breece Hall has gone under this line in three of the last four games. He’s had under 20 rushing attempts in seven of the last eight games.

Above average in yards allowed per rush, New Orleans has sneakily been good at stopping the ground game. The Saints’ recent opponents have put up some decent rushing numbers, but Isaiah Davis’ usage also threatens Hall’s workload.

Nothing from Hall over the last few weeks suggests he will go over this line. The under is clearly the way to go, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Davis had a bigger role than Hall.

C.J. Stroud Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-122)

Seven of C.J. Stroud’s last eight games have featured 21 or more pass completions. His pass completion percentage of 65.3% is the best of his career to date, and he’s facing a Raiders team that ranks in the bottom five in pressure rate.

Conceding the 10th-most yards per pass attempt and the second-highest pass completion percentage, Las Vegas is the ideal opponent to back this over. The gamescript might not favor a pass-heavy offense from Houston, but the Texans have trusted Stroud regardless of the score.

Sure, we’ve got to take a bit of a hit with the -122 odds, but it’s more than worth it with how consistently Stroud has cruised into the 20s in completions.