MNF: Best Bets for Dolphins vs Steelers
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
With five wins in six games, the Miami Dolphins have given themselves a chance to qualify for the playoffs. They’d need a lot to go right, as a division title isn’t possible with New England well behind the maximum 10 wins Miami can reach.
But there’s still a chance, and that’s more than some teams can say. Pittsburgh’s in a better spot, but not by much. The Steelers have the lead in the AFC North, but that’s likely to be their lone pathway into the postseason. Pittsburgh currently has a half-game lead over Baltimore, and its most important games are still to come for your NFL bets.
A win here would still make a difference, as the Steelers want to keep that lead over the Ravens as long as possible. Here’s a look at some of the best prop plays on the board.
Tua Tagovailoa, Under 192.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
The weather in Pittsburgh will clear up a little from the snow and wind that blanketed Pennsylvania this weekend. But that still doesn’t make Tagovailoa a good option as far as throwing the football. Even though the Steelers have a very weak pass defense, Miami is not bothering to throw the football right now.
In the Dolphins’ past four victories, Tagovailoa has thrown under 200 yards in all of them. Go back to Miami’s loss to Baltimore, a 28-6 rout, and Tagovailoa threw 40 times for 261 yards. That makes it very clear that the Dolphins do not want to throw the football any more often than necessary. With cold temperatures still part of the equation in western Pennsylvania, the Dolphins will be even less inclined to throw the football. If Tagovailoa ends up anywhere close to 200 yards, something has gone seriously wrong.
De’Von Achane, Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
If the Dolphins aren’t going to throw the ball, then they’re going to run it. And Achane has been the most reliable back that Miami has. He’s scheduled to play on Monday after being questionable with a rib injury he suffered against the Jets. Achane missed the second half of the win over New York, but that was because the Dolphins didn’t need him. Jaylen Wright did the job just fine against the hapless Jets, and Miami held a 17-point lead.
Neither of those factors are in place against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have a competent offense, and the Dolphins will only turn to Wright as a change-of-pace back unless Achane gets hurt again. This target is very realistic, especially if Miami can stick to its game script. The Steelers don’t have a great defense, so the Dolphins should be able to follow their game plan.
DK Metcalf, Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
If Aaron Rodgers is on the field, the Steelers want the football in his hands. If the football is in Rodgers’ hands, he’s going to look for DK Metcalf. And both of those things are true for this matchup. Metcalf got 12 targets last week against the Ravens, and hauled in seven for 148 yards. That was three times the production of any other Steeler receiver, which says how much Rodgers trusts him.
Metcalf’s production was inconsistent the past few weeks, but that came with Mason Rudolph on the field. With Rodgers back under center, the Steelers will look to target him early and often. Miami has a good pass defense, but this is a manageable target if Metcalf will see a similar volume to last week.
