Best Player Prop Bets For Week 17 of the NFL Season
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Week 17 is split between the Christmas Day slate and games on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. With the Christmas Day games getting plenty of their own attention, our focus for this piece is on the weekend contests, featuring the Texans against the Chargers on Saturday.
Sunday has plenty of games worth getting stuck into as well. Seattle is on the road against the Panthers. There’s a Sunday showdown between the Eagles and Bills, and the Niners are going toe-to-toe with the high-flying Chicago Bears.
C.J. Stroud Over 21.5 Pass Completions (+112)
Backing C.J. Stroud’s pass completions overpaid out for us in Week 16. We are running it back for Week 17 with Stroud having posted 45 pass completions over his last two games.
Eight of Stroud’s last 10 games have gone over this line. He’s been trusted to pass the ball down the field throughout the season and gets to face a Chargers team that’s only a middling defense when it comes to pressuring the opposing quarterback.
Even with Los Angeles' strong traditional and underlying numbers against the pass, there is clearly value taking the over in this market. The game script could work in our favor, too.
Bryce Young Under 199.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Bryce Young has gone under this line in five of his last seven games. Despite throwing over 400 yards against Atlanta last month, he averages only 192.2 passing yards per game. His 63.5% pass completion is mediocre.
Seattle is facing Carolina this weekend. The Seahawks are 10th in EPA against the pass, seventh in opponent completion percentage, and second in passes defended.
This is an elite pass defense. The Seahawks pressure quarterbacks frequently without blitzing and rank among the league’s elite defenses in opponent yards per pass attempt.
Brady Cook Over 167.5 Passing Yards (-114)
The Patriots are a good rather than great pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks have been able to move the ball in the air, as illustrated by New England sitting in the bottom eight in opponent pass completion percentage.
Wagering on a Brady Cook over isn’t where we expected to be on Christmas Eve. It is, though, an exceptional value. The line is far too low with New England’s underlying pass defense numbers and Cook’s production in recent weeks.
The rookie has gone over this line in each of the last two games. The Jets have passed the ball at the fifth-highest frequency over the last three weeks.
Tyler Shough Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Are sportsbooks still sleeping on Tyler Shough? The second-round pick has led the Saints to three consecutive wins. He’s gone over this passing yards line in five of the last six games.
In those five games, Shough has gone over comfortably more often than not. Tennessee is in the bottom five in opponent yards per attempt and has the sixth-worst opponent pass completion percentage.
Shough has a better bad throw rate than Stroud, Jared Goff, and Jalen Hurts. He’s above the league average in on-target rate and ahead of Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert.
Aaron Rodgers Over 19.5 Pass Completions (-102)
Aaron Rodgers has cleared this line by multiple completions in three straight games. Cleveland is an effective pass defense but still ranks outside the top 10 in opponent pass completion percentage.
League average in bad throw rate and above average in on-target rate, Rodgers has been able to get the ball out quickly all year. Baker Mayfield is the only quarterback to have been pressured less frequently.
DK Metcalf’s suspension changes the projections to a degree. Cleveland are going to pressure Rodgers more than he’s been used to, and he’s missing his most trusty release valve. Still, this line feels favorable with the numbers the future Hall of Famer has put up over the last three weeks.
