Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Picks - ATP Italian Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Italian Open Picks
Fueled by his recent giant-slaying run, Thiago Agustin Tirante rolls into his fourth-round match with Daniil Medvedev as an intriguing option at +130 moneyline.
Current Form:
After a disastrous start to his clay-court season in Monte Carlo, Daniil Medvedev has secured a back-to-back appearance in the fourth round of Madrid and Rome following a come-from-behind win over Pablo Llamaz Ruis 3-6, 6-4, 6-2. The former world’s No.1 bumped up her clay-court record to 4-2 and overall record to 24-7 in 2026. Caesars Sports posts Medvedev as -170 moneyline favorite against another surprising fourth-round entrant, Thiago Agustin Tirante.
Tirante offers a +130 payout for those backing him to pull off an upset win over Medvedev. The Argentine reached the round of 16 after coming through with back-to-back top-20 wins over the world’s No.19 Cameron Norrie 6-3, 7-5 and the world’s No.2 Flavio Cobolli 6-3, 6-4. Tirante sports an impressive 11-4 record on the dirt and 18-10 overall this season.
Limited Offer. Currently at Caesars Sportsbook
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev Form
Thiago Agustin Tirante and Daniil Medvedev Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
May 11, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
May 9, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
May 7, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 26, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 24, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 22, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
May 11, 2026 - ATP Italian Open
Apr 28, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 27, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 25, 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Apr 8, 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Mar 23, 2026 - ATP Miami
Thiago Agustin Tirante - Daniil Medvedev Key Points
- Thiago Agustin Tirante has faced only 5 breakpoints in Rome.
- Thiago Agustin Tirante is 2-0 vs. top-10 players
- Daniil Medvedev has saved 2 of 4 breakpoints in Rome
- Daniil Medvedev is 4-2 on clay in 2026
Limited Offer. Currently at Caesars Sportsbook
Our Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Upset Alert: Having faced and saved only 5 breakpoints in Rome, Thiago Tirante is primed to dish out heavy damage to Daniil Medvedev in their fourth-round contest. Tirante, brimming with confidence following two signature wins over Norrie and Cobolli, will likely produce another upset here, especially if he catches Medvedev flat-footed.
Best Pick: Back Tirante at +130 moneyline. The Argentine currently wields the form and momentum to pull off another massive win in Rome. Tirante would still be a solid play if taken at -125 to cover the +2.5 line, but he’s a far more valuable pick on the moneyline against Medvedev, who has never been comfortable on this court despite being a former champion. Tirante is 2-for-2 against top-10 players in his career. Unsurprisingly, he earned these top-10 wins on clay, beating Andrey Rublev at the 2024 Swedish Open and Ben Shelton at the 2026 US Men’s Clay Court Championship.
Our betting prediction for Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Daniil Medvedev: Thiago Agustin Tirante will win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
