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by Erik Gibbs in NFL Picks
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be looking to bounce back and reaffirm their NFC credentials when they host the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. After a disappointing 24-9 loss to the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football, Tampa Bay has a lot to prove. The Buccaneers entered that game as one of the NFC's top contenders but fell short in every aspect — from offensive rhythm to red-zone efficiency.
The defeat dropped them to 5-2, but they remain tied for the best record in the NFC and hold a one-game lead over the 4-3 Carolina Panthers in the NFC South. A divisional victory this week would allow them to enter their bye on a strong note, maintaining control of the division and momentum for the second half of the season.
Tampa Bay's issues against Detroit stemmed largely from offensive inconsistency. Quarterback Baker Mayfield struggled under pressure, completing under 60% of his passes and missing several deep throws that could have swung the game. The Lions' defense, led by Aidan Hutchinson, forced the Bucs into long-yardage situations that exposed the offensive line's weaknesses. Still, Tampa Bay's defense has been among the best in the league at generating turnovers and stopping the run, and that could be the key factor against a New Orleans team that has struggled to move the ball efficiently all year.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | D | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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6
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0.714 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
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29
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0.143 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers against New Orleans Saints : Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers - New Orleans Saints Key Points
- The Bucs are 10-0 in their last 10 games vs. NFC teams on a losing streak
- The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 games between the Buccaneers and Saints
- The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 October games as underdogs
- The Over is 11-3 in the last 14 games between NFC South teams
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Our Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction
The Saints enter this matchup reeling from a rough 1-6 start to the season, including a deflating 20-10 road loss to the Chicago Bears last week. Poor weather conditions and Chicago's aggressive defense limited the Saints to just 253 total yards while forcing four turnovers. Quarterback Derek Carr, who was signed in the offseason to stabilize the offense, has yet to find consistent chemistry with his receivers, particularly star wideout Chris Olave. The running game has been equally underwhelming, with Alvin Kamara averaging well below four yards per carry.
However, the one bright spot for New Orleans has been its defense. Since Week 5, the Saints have ranked eighth in the league in EPA allowed per play, showing discipline in coverage and toughness in the red zone. Even in last week's loss, they held the Bears to 3-for-12 on third downs and just two touchdowns in six red-zone trips. The problem, though, is that the defense is constantly being asked to compensate for offensive failures — a formula that rarely leads to success in the NFL.
Recent history also favors Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have won five of the last six meetings between the teams, including a 51-27 blowout in New Orleans and a 27-19 win at home last season. With Mayfield likely to lean on receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and the defense poised to exploit the Saints' turnover woes, the Bucs appear to have the upper hand once again. If Tampa Bay can establish early control and avoid giving the Saints short fields, they should be able to cruise to a comfortable win and solidify their position atop the NFC South. Our prediction for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints: Over 47.5 points.
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