Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction & Picks - WNBA

USA - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
10/10/25 20:00
Las Vegas Aces

Prediction:

 

Aces (-3.5) cover the spread

-110
$300 offered for betting!

New customers only | Commercial content | 21+ age limit | T&Cs apply

 by Paul Tamayo in WNBA Picks

The Las Vegas Aces visit the Phoenix Mercury for Game 4 of the 2025 WNBA Finals on Friday, October 10, at the Mortgage Matchup Center. 

The Aces turned back a ferocious comeback attempt from the Mercury to win Game 3, 90-88. Las Vegas held a 17-point lead entering the final period, only for Phoenix to mount an inspired rally. Fortunately for the Aces, their reigning MVP was there to save the day.

A'ja Wilson hit a turnaround jumper over two Mercury defenders to help the Aces escape and command a 3-0 lead in the Finals. Wilson led all scorers with 34 points, while also adding 14 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 blocks to her tally. 

Jackie Young contributed 21 points and 9 assists, while Jewell Loyd came off the bench to tally 16 markers. 

It was a heartbreaking loss for the Mercury, who gave everything they got to win in front of their home crowd. DeWanna Bonner was instrumental off the bench again, leading the Mercury in scoring with 25. Satou Sabally also produced 24 points in the loss.

However, Sabally won't be suiting up for the Mercury in the all-important Game 4. She has been placed under the concussion protocol and will miss the next game.

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Form

Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces Latest Matches

Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury Latest matches
W W L L L L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Oct 10, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  97
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 8, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
88 :  90
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 5, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
91 :  78
Phoenix Mercury

Oct 3, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
89 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 28, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  81
Minnesota Lynx

Sep 26, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
84 :  76
Minnesota Lynx
L W W W L L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Oct 10, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  97
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 8, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
88 :  90
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 28, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  81
Minnesota Lynx

Sep 26, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
84 :  76
Minnesota Lynx

Sep 19, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
79 :  73
New York Liberty

Sep 14, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
69 :  76
New York Liberty
L W L W L L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Oct 5, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
91 :  78
Phoenix Mercury

Oct 3, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
89 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 23, 2025 - WNBA

Minnesota Lynx
83 :  89
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 21, 2025 - WNBA

Minnesota Lynx
82 :  69
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 17, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
60 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 11, 2025 - WNBA

Dallas Wings
97 :  76
Phoenix Mercury
Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces Latest matches
L W W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Oct 10, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  97
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 8, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
88 :  90
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 5, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
91 :  78
Phoenix Mercury

Oct 3, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
89 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 30, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
107 :  98
Indiana Fever

Sep 28, 2025 - WNBA

Indiana Fever
90 :  83
Las Vegas Aces
W L W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Oct 5, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
91 :  78
Phoenix Mercury

Oct 3, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
89 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 30, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
107 :  98
Indiana Fever

Sep 23, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
90 :  68
Indiana Fever

Sep 21, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
73 :  89
Indiana Fever

Sep 18, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
74 :  73
Seattle Storm
W L W L W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Oct 10, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  97
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 8, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
88 :  90
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 28, 2025 - WNBA

Indiana Fever
90 :  83
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 26, 2025 - WNBA

Indiana Fever
72 :  84
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 16, 2025 - WNBA

Seattle Storm
86 :  83
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 11, 2025 - WNBA

L.a. Sparks
75 :  103
Las Vegas Aces

Phoenix Mercury against Las Vegas Aces : Head to Head (H2H)

Phoenix Mercury

0 %

Las Vegas Aces

100 %

Oct 10, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  97
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 8, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
88 :  90
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 5, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
91 :  78
Phoenix Mercury

Oct 3, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
89 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Aug 21, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
83 :  61
Phoenix Mercury

Aug 15, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
83 :  86
Las Vegas Aces

Players list

Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury
N. Mack Goalkeeper

D. Bonner

M. Akoa-Makani

Forward

K. Copper

A. Thomas

Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces
A. Wilson Goalkeeper

C. Gray

J. Young

Forward

N. Smith

K. Bell

Substitutes

Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury
K. Brown Goalkeeper

K. Williams

L. Held

S. Whitcomb

K. Laksa

Forward

S. Sabally

K. Westbeld

Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces
M. Gustafson K. Stokes Goalkeeper

D. Evans

A. Nye

J. Loyd

Forward

C. Parker

Phoenix Mercury - Las Vegas Aces Key Points

  1. The Aces won Game 3, 90-88, and are now leading the series, 3-0.
  2. Aces superstar A'ja Wilson produced 34 points and 14 rebounds in Game 3.
  3. The Mercury will miss the services of Satou Sabally (concussion).
  4. The Aces have a 13-9 record on the road during the regular season.

Our Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction

It seemed like the Mercury had enough to steal Game 3 from the Aces, but A'ja Wilson had other plans. Her turnaround gamewinner gave the Aces a 3-0 lead, and might have buried the Mercury for good.

It also doesn't help the Mercury's cause that they'll miss the all-around production of Satou Sabally (concussion). Look for Wilson and the Aces to go all-in for a championship sweep. Our prediction for the Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces is: Aces (-3.5) cover the spread.

Prediction:

 

Aces (-3.5) cover the spread

-110
$300 offered for betting!

Grab an extra $300 for your Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces wager!

Bet $5, Get $300

Get ready to experience the thrill of the game with FanDuel's exciting welcome offer, available for use on the Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces matchup!

A minimum bet of $5 will qualify for $300 in bonus bets if your bet wins! This offer is a golden opportunity for new users. Don't miss out on this limited-time deal to enhance your sports betting experience with some extra oomph! Jump into the action today and let FanDuel take your sports engagement to the next level!

$300 available for Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Picks