Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks - WNBA

USA - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
10/10/25 20:00
Phoenix Mercury

Prediction:

 

Aces (-3.5) cover the spread

-110
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 by Paul Tamayo in WNBA Picks

The Las Vegas Aces visit the Phoenix Mercury for Game 4 of the 2025 WNBA Finals on Friday, October 10, at the Mortgage Matchup Center. 

The Aces turned back a ferocious comeback attempt from the Mercury to win Game 3, 90-88. Las Vegas held a 17-point lead entering the final period, only for Phoenix to mount an inspired rally. Fortunately for the Aces, their reigning MVP was there to save the day.

A'ja Wilson hit a turnaround jumper over two Mercury defenders to help the Aces escape and command a 3-0 lead in the Finals. Wilson led all scorers with 34 points, while also adding 14 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 blocks to her tally. 

Jackie Young contributed 21 points and 9 assists, while Jewell Loyd came off the bench to tally 16 markers. 

It was a heartbreaking loss for the Mercury, who gave everything they got to win in front of their home crowd. DeWanna Bonner was instrumental off the bench again, leading the Mercury in scoring with 25. Satou Sabally also produced 24 points in the loss.

However, Sabally won't be suiting up for the Mercury in the all-important Game 4. She has been placed under the concussion protocol and will miss the next game.

Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Form

Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury Latest Matches

Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces Latest matches
W L W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Oct 8, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
90 :  88
Phoenix Mercury

Oct 5, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
78 :  91
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 3, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  89
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 30, 2025 - WNBA

Indiana Fever
98 :  107
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 28, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
83 :  90
Indiana Fever

Sep 26, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
84 :  72
Indiana Fever
W L W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Oct 5, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
78 :  91
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 3, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  89
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 30, 2025 - WNBA

Indiana Fever
98 :  107
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 23, 2025 - WNBA

Indiana Fever
68 :  90
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 21, 2025 - WNBA

Indiana Fever
89 :  73
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 18, 2025 - WNBA

Seattle Storm
73 :  74
Las Vegas Aces
W W L W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Oct 8, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
90 :  88
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 28, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
83 :  90
Indiana Fever

Sep 26, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
84 :  72
Indiana Fever

Sep 16, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
83 :  86
Seattle Storm

Sep 11, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
103 :  75
L.a. Sparks

Aug 27, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
81 :  75
Atlanta Dream
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury Latest matches
W W W L L L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Oct 8, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
90 :  88
Phoenix Mercury

Oct 5, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
78 :  91
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 3, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  89
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 28, 2025 - WNBA

Minnesota Lynx
81 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 26, 2025 - WNBA

Minnesota Lynx
76 :  84
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 23, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
89 :  83
Minnesota Lynx
L L W W W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Oct 8, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
90 :  88
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 28, 2025 - WNBA

Minnesota Lynx
81 :  86
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 26, 2025 - WNBA

Minnesota Lynx
76 :  84
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 19, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
73 :  79
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 14, 2025 - WNBA

New York Liberty
76 :  69
Phoenix Mercury

Sep 9, 2025 - WNBA

L.a. Sparks
88 :  83
Phoenix Mercury
L W L W L L
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

4/6 (67%)

Oct 5, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
78 :  91
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 3, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  89
Las Vegas Aces

Sep 23, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
89 :  83
Minnesota Lynx

Sep 21, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
69 :  82
Minnesota Lynx

Sep 17, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  60
New York Liberty

Sep 11, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
76 :  97
Dallas Wings

Las Vegas Aces against Phoenix Mercury : Head to Head (H2H)

Las Vegas Aces

100 %

Phoenix Mercury

0 %

Oct 8, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
90 :  88
Phoenix Mercury

Oct 5, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
78 :  91
Las Vegas Aces

Oct 3, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
86 :  89
Las Vegas Aces

Aug 21, 2025 - WNBA

Phoenix Mercury
61 :  83
Las Vegas Aces

Aug 15, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
86 :  83
Phoenix Mercury

Jun 29, 2025 - WNBA

Las Vegas Aces
84 :  81
Phoenix Mercury

Players list

Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces
A. Wilson C. Gray J. Young K. Bell N. Smith
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury
N. Mack M. Akoa-Makani D. Bonner K. Copper A. Thomas

Substitutes

Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces
K. Stokes M. Gustafson D. Evans J. Loyd A. Nye C. Parker
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix Mercury
K. Brown L. Held K. Laksa S. Whitcomb K. Williams S. Sabally K. Westbeld

Las Vegas Aces - Phoenix Mercury Key Points

  1. The Aces won Game 3, 90-88, and are now leading the series, 3-0.
  2. Aces superstar A'ja Wilson produced 34 points and 14 rebounds in Game 3.
  3. The Mercury will miss the services of Satou Sabally (concussion).
  4. The Aces have a 13-9 record on the road during the regular season.

Our Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction

It seemed like the Mercury had enough to steal Game 3 from the Aces, but A'ja Wilson had other plans. Her turnaround gamewinner gave the Aces a 3-0 lead, and might have buried the Mercury for good.

It also doesn't help the Mercury's cause that they'll miss the all-around production of Satou Sabally (concussion). Look for Wilson and the Aces to go all-in for a championship sweep. Our prediction for the Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces is: Aces (-3.5) cover the spread.

Prediction:

 

Aces (-3.5) cover the spread

-110
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Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Picks