Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction & Picks - NFL
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by Lou Aguila | in NFL Picks
The New England Patriots are a rock-solid pick to cover -7.0 points against a Miami Dolphins team they crushed by 28 points in their last meeting.
Current Form:
The Miami Dolphins claimed their first win of the season after edging the New York Jets, 28-25, in Week 6. Quarterback Malik Willis threw for 208 passing yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for 37 yards and scored one TD.
Meanwhile, the New England Patriots’ three-game winning streak came to an end with a 24-30 loss to the Chicago Bears. After holding their last two opponents under 20 points, the Patriots’ defense allowed the Bears to score 20 before halftime. Quarterback Drake Maye passed for 321 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
The Matchup: The Patriots have beaten the Dolphins in their last two meetings, including a 38-10 blowout on January 4, 2026.
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Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
14
|
0.571 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
|
30
|
0.167 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots Latest Matches
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Oct 25, 2026 - NFL
Oct 11, 2026 - NFL
Oct 4, 2026 - NFL
Sep 27, 2026 - NFL
Sep 20, 2026 - NFL
Sep 13, 2026 - NFL
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Oct 11, 2026 - NFL
Sep 27, 2026 - NFL
Dec 28, 2025 - NFL
Dec 21, 2025 - NFL
Nov 30, 2025 - NFL
Nov 16, 2025 - NFL
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Oct 25, 2026 - NFL
Oct 4, 2026 - NFL
Sep 20, 2026 - NFL
Sep 13, 2026 - NFL
Jan 4, 2026 - NFL
Dec 15, 2025 - NFL
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Oct 22, 2026 - NFL
Oct 18, 2026 - NFL
Oct 11, 2026 - NFL
Oct 4, 2026 - NFL
Sep 27, 2026 - NFL
Sep 20, 2026 - NFL
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Oct 18, 2026 - NFL
Oct 11, 2026 - NFL
Sep 20, 2026 - NFL
Feb 8, 2026 - NFL
Jan 18, 2026 - NFL
Jan 11, 2026 - NFL
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Oct 22, 2026 - NFL
Oct 4, 2026 - NFL
Sep 27, 2026 - NFL
Sep 9, 2026 - NFL
Jan 25, 2026 - NFL
Dec 28, 2025 - NFL
Miami Dolphins against New England Patriots : Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
Jan 4, 2026 - NFL
Sep 14, 2025 - NFL
Nov 24, 2024 - NFL
Oct 6, 2024 - NFL
Oct 29, 2023 - NFL
Sep 17, 2023 - NFL
Miami Dolphins - New England Patriots Key Points
- The Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Dolphins are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games.
- The Patriots are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Patriots are 3-3 ATS this season.
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Our Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction
The Difference Maker: The Patriots rank 9th in the NFL in passing yards (253.0) with Drake Maye boasting the 10th QB rating (95.1). Meanwhile, the Dolphins rank 19th in defense against the pass (277.5 passing yards allowed) and 25th in allowed points per game (26.2).
Betting Analysis: Maye and the Patriots’ elite passing game exploit the Dolphins’ weak secondary on their way to a comprehensive win. Expect Maye to post terrific numbers across the board as he’s facing one of the worst teams against the pass.
ESPN Match Predictor gives the Patriots a nearly 80 percent chance to win this game, which is not surprising at all given how New England dismantled the Dolphins in their most recent head-to-head.
Fearless Forecast: Patriots 29, Dolphins 14
Our betting prediction for the New England Patriots vs. the Miami Dolphins: The Patriots -7.0 points
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
