Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Prediction & Picks - ATP Japan Open

Prediction published on 9/29/26, 8:57 AM  by Tyler Doty | Modified on 9/29/26 at 8:57 AM in Tennis Picks

Carlos Alcaraz will be the heavy favorite at the ATP 500 tournament in Tokyo, which begins this Wednesday. The Spaniard missed much of the season due to a wrist injury. Taking his time to recover, the Spanish tennis player made his return at the US Open after missing the French Open and Wimbledon, as well as the North American tour (except Flushing Meadows). In his comeback, the world No. 3 left frustrated after a five-set quarterfinal loss to Ben Shelton. It was a disappointment for Carlos Alcaraz, but also a relief to see that his physical condition wasn’t an issue and that his level of play was already very high despite his lack of match practice. Three weeks later, the Spaniard heads into this tournament in Japan with far greater confidence than he had at the end of August.

In a 2026 season without any real standout moments, Alex Michelsen achieved his best result at the US Open with a quarterfinal appearance (his best Grand Slam performance to date). Ranked 34th in the world, the Californian must now maintain this level of play to hope to break into the top 30 and establish himself as a consistent seed at the season’s major events. Boosted by his strong run in New York, Alex Michelsen knows he’ll face a tough challenge right from the first round in Tokyo, as the draw has not been kind to the American.