Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction & Picks - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Erik Gibbs | in Premier League Picks
The Premier League serves up a potential upset special on Saturday as Burnley welcome Arsenal to Turf Moor. It's a meeting between one of the league's most resilient underdogs and a title contender known for their clinical precision away from home. Burnley have won two of their four league matches on home turf this season, and under Scott Parker, they've shown flashes of fight that make them more than capable of springing a surprise. Arsenal, meanwhile, have been excellent on the road, winning three of their last four away fixtures and grinding out results through a combination of organization and patience.
Historically, the numbers lean heavily in Arsenal's favor. The Gunners have beaten Burnley 16 times in their last 22 encounters across all competitions, often dominating possession and dictating tempo. Yet Turf Moor has never been an easy venue for visiting sides.
The narrow pitch and combative atmosphere tend to favor Burnley's direct approach and physicality, and this season's home form suggests they have the tools to make life uncomfortable for Mikel Arteta's men.
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Burnley vs Arsenal Form
Table
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
85 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 |
|
19
|
22 | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | -37 |
Burnley and Arsenal Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 31, 2025 - U21 Premier League Cup
Oct 26, 2025 - Premier League
Oct 24, 2025 - U21 Premier League Cup
Oct 21, 2025 - National League Cup
Oct 18, 2025 - Premier League
Oct 17, 2025 - U23 Premier League Cup
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 31, 2025 - U21 Premier League Cup
Oct 18, 2025 - Premier League
Oct 17, 2025 - U23 Premier League Cup
Oct 5, 2025 - U21 Premier League Cup
Sep 26, 2025 - U21 Premier League Cup
Sep 23, 2025 - Carabao Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 26, 2025 - Premier League
Oct 24, 2025 - U21 Premier League Cup
Oct 21, 2025 - National League Cup
Oct 5, 2025 - Premier League
Sep 27, 2025 - Premier League
Sep 23, 2025 - U23 Premier League Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 29, 2025 - Carabao Cup
Oct 26, 2025 - Premier League
Oct 21, 2025 - Champions League
Oct 18, 2025 - Premier League
Oct 4, 2025 - Premier League
Oct 1, 2025 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 29, 2025 - Carabao Cup
Oct 26, 2025 - Premier League
Oct 21, 2025 - Champions League
Oct 4, 2025 - Premier League
Oct 1, 2025 - Champions League
Sep 21, 2025 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Oct 18, 2025 - Premier League
Sep 28, 2025 - Premier League
Sep 24, 2025 - Carabao Cup
Sep 16, 2025 - Champions League
Aug 31, 2025 - Premier League
Aug 17, 2025 - Premier League
Burnley against Arsenal : Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Feb 17, 2024 - Premier League
Nov 11, 2023 - Premier League
Jan 23, 2022 - Premier League
Sep 18, 2021 - Premier League
Mar 6, 2021 - Premier League
Dec 13, 2020 - Premier League
Burnley against Arsenal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
M. Weiss
DefenderL. Pires
H. Ekdal
MidfielderH. Mejbri
A. Barnes
A. Broja
L. Tchaouna
M. Edwards
J. Bruun Larsen
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderB. White
P. Hincapie
C. Mosquera
MidfielderM. Dowman
M. Lewis-Skelly
M. Merino
C. Norgaard
E. Nwaneri
Missing players
C. Roberts
J. Beyer
ForwardZ. Amdouni
G. Jesus
G. Martinelli
Most goals and assists
Burnley
Arsenal
Z. Flemming
(11 Goals)
V. Gyokeres
(14 Goals)
Q. Hartman
(5 Assists)
L. Trossard
(6 Assists)
, 
M. Odegaard
(6 Assists)
Burnley - Arsenal Key Points
- Arsenal are undefeated at half-time in their last 19 games vs. Burnley across all competitions
- Burnley are undefeated in 49 of their 57 last games across all competitions
- The Over is 1-4 in Arsenal's last 5 games
- The Over is 3-2 in Burnley's last 5 games
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Our Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction
Burnley's Lyle Foster will be pivotal to any hopes of an upset. The South African forward has netted twice in his last five appearances and continues to be a focal point for Parker's side. Averaging 2.4 shots per game, Foster's strength, aerial prowess, and hold-up play will test Arsenal's backline, especially on set-pieces and long deliveries into the box. With Zeki Amdouni (knee), Jordan Beyer (hamstring), and Bashir Humphreys (thigh) all sidelined, Burnley's depth will be tested, but Foster's presence gives them a fighting chance to trouble the visitors.
Arsenal, for their part, enter this fixture with some injury concerns of their own. Key creative players like Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz, Martin Odegaard, and Noni Madueke are reportedly unavailable or doubtful, which could impact their attacking fluidity. However, Arsenal's hallmark this season has been their ability to adapt and win ugly when needed. Their backline, marshaled by William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães, has been one of the stingiest in the league, while Bukayo Saka and Leandro Trossard remain dangerous outlets on the counter.
This fixture could turn into a grind for Arsenal if Burnley's intensity holds up and Foster gets the service he needs. Yet, even with injuries and the possibility of a scrappy contest, Arsenal's defensive discipline and superior game management might ultimately prove decisive. Expect a tight, low-scoring match—something in the range of a 1-0 or 2-0 Arsenal victory—but Burnley will make them earn every bit of it. Our prediction for Burnley vs. Arsenal: Over 3.5 goals.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
