Analyzing Group Winner and Qualification Markets Ahead of Matchday 3 of the 2026 World Cup
by Sam Cox
The stakes are high entering the final round of World Cup group stage matches. Only five teams have been eliminated. Seven have qualified for the knockout phase, but only four of those have locked up top spot in their group.
That leaves 39 out of the 48 teams with something to play for. For some, it’s about increasing their chances of qualifying through finishing second or being on the best third-placed teams. Others are gunning to top their group and, at least in theory, create an easier path in the knockout rounds.
Here are some of the best soccer bets for group winner and qualification markets.
Switzerland To Win Group B (+130)
This is a straight bet on Switzerland to beat Canada. Albeit powered by late goals, Switzerland emphatically beat Bosnia and Herzegovina, while Canada had to score a late equalizer against the same opponents.
That might seem reductive, but it’s worth noting that Switzerland were the pre-tournament betting favourites to top the group. The Swiss are ranked 19th in the world – Canada have a very limited history of success against the world’s top 20, so this represents solid value on a Swiss victory.
Morocco To Win Group C (+165)
To finish ahead of Brazil, Morocco need a better result against Haiti than the five-time champions manage against Scotland. A draw means goal difference will decide where the teams land if they finish level on points.
Scotland could frustrate Brazil leading to a draw or a one-goal victory. Morocco winning 3-0 and Brazil winning 1-0 would see the group winner decided by disciplinary points.
It’s not out of the question that Brazil fail to win, while Morocco are surely going to beat an already eliminated Haiti with ease.
Iran To Qualify (-165)
Iran held Belgium to a goalless draw and showed good resilience to come from behind twice against New Zealand. The Persian Cheetahs could progress with a draw when they face Egypt, but a win shouldn’t be ruled out with their record of three consecutive wins coming into this World Cup.
Perhaps notably, Iran have beaten Japan and Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 2020s. This isn’t a walkover for Egypt, who have only won three of their last eight matches, including the win over New Zealand last time out.
Cape Verde To Qualify (-230)
Cape Verde surely cannot believe they find themselves in this position. A win over Saudi Arabia would guarantee a knockout spot, and could lead to them winning the group with Spain facing Uruguay on matchday three.
Rearguard performances against Spain and Uruguay leave Cape Verde’s on two points from two matches. A win will take them to five and guarantee a top two placing, while a draw could be enough to be one of the best third-placed teams, though that will be clearer by the time their match kicks off.
Austria (-3500) & Algeria (-600) To Qualify
Austria and Algeria are level on three points apiece ahead of their matchday three contest. Avoiding defeat will definitely be enough for Austria, while a win guarantees Algeria’s progression.
With their fixture taking place last, the two teams will know what’s required by the time they kick off. A narrow defeat could be enough to take Algeria into the next phase of the competition depending on how the other groups play out.
Austria looked a bit short of ideas against Argentina. Sometimes knowing a draw is enough can leave teams stuck in a noncommittal style of play, but they can take confidence from their performance against Jordan on matchday one.
DR Congo To Qualify (-135)
DR Congo, like Algeria, should know what’s required by the time they kick off. A win against Uzbekistan is a necessity, but more importantly, they will know if a win alone is enough or if they need to push to win by multiple goals.
In these sorts of circumstances, that can be a major advantage. Entering a match knowing what’s needed allows for more clarity and a clear gameplan. Uzbekistan were overmatched against Portugal and DR Congo have shown enough in their first two matches to suggest they can win relatively easily.
