NFL Trends to Consider When Betting on Super Bowl LX
by Sam Cox
Betting on the Super Bowl is different from other NFL games. The stakes are higher, teams have longer to prepare, and more money is being placed at sportsbooks than for any other contest during the regular season or playoffs.
As a result, bettors have to think differently when looking for an edge. There isn’t usually much head-to-head data to go on between two teams from opposing conferences. Most quarterbacks have minimal Big Game experience, and no one can be that sure how each head coach will scheme.
The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots have defied all expectations to make it this far. Sam Darnold and Drake Maye are playing in their first Super Bowls, setting the stage for our Patriots vs Seahawks pick.
It takes deeper digging to find trends that can be informative for the upcoming Big Game. Before we get into the top storylines, we made a rundown featuring some of our top Super Bowl betting tips, here:
Darnold’s Postseason Supremacy
Darnold has been trending upwards in these playoffs. His performance against the Rams was the best of his career; calm, composed, ruthless.
Maye has shown some frailties in the postseason. He’s had six fumbles and two interceptions and only threw for 86 yards against the Denver Broncos. After a superb regular season, the second-year quarterback has often looked unsettled in the playoffs.
It feels a bit like Maye peaked earlier in the season. Maybe the grind of his first full season as a starter has worn him down. Darnold has looked accomplished and calm, including a 346-yard masterpiece against Los Angeles.
Underdogs Enjoy the Big Game
Since 2004, underdogs are 15-7 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The underdog has covered in each of the last five Super Bowls, with the dog winning outright on four of those occasions.
Underdogs are 13-4 against the spread since 2002 when the spread is three or more points. This five-game cover streak for dogs is the longest in Super Bowl history.
Interestingly, this is at contrast with the playoffs thus far. All four favorites won straight-up in the Divisional Round and both favorites won their respective Championship Games.
AFC Supremacy
AFC teams are 8-3 against the spread across the last 11 Super Bowls. How much can we read into that?
Well, that run obviously includes the dynastic Tom Brady Patriots and Patrick Mahomes Chiefs teams. The AFC has generally had the better top-end teams over the last decade or so, but that doesn’t give us much to go on for Super Bowl LX.
Neither of these teams have been to the Big Game in recent years. They haven’t had any experience or impact on that run of eight covers in 11 years for the AFC.
Backing the Spread
Only one of the last 15 Super Bowls has seen a team lift the Lombardi Trophy without covering the spread. That came in Super Bowl LVI when the Rams beat the Bengals by three points with a 4.5-point spread.
This is one trend that is very informative for bettors. Taking the moneyline on the favored Seahawks doesn’t seem to have much value and plays an important role in our Super Bowl Pick, though it’s worth noting Seattle are favored by 4.5, just as the Rams were.
Perhaps this also tells us sportsbooks are too cautious with their Super Bowl spreads.
Love for Seattle
Several sportsbooks are reporting swathes of money on the Seahawks. This might be down to how impressive Seattle was compared with New England’s gritty performance in the Championship Round.
Over the course of an NFL season, fading the public has proven a popular strategy. It’s worth keeping an eye out for data on money and bet percentages to get a read on where the public are going and what the sharps are backing.
With how it’s looking, there’s a good chance the Seahawks could move from 4.5 to 5 or 5.5-point favorites.
Unders Prove Profitable
The over has only cashed four times in the last 10 Super Bowls. The total opened at 46 points for Super Bowl LX.
Seattle’s playoff games delivered 47 and 58 points. New England’s have produced 17, 44, and 19.
These are two of the NFL’s best defenses. The Seahawks won’t score 41 like they did in the Divisional Round and New England’s stuttering offense isn’t going to be as efficient as Matthew Stafford’s Rams were in the NFC Championship Game.
