Best NFL Player Props for Super Bowl LX
by Sam Cox
The Super Bowl is one of the biggest sports betting events of the year. Super Bowl LX has already secured some longshot wagers have landed, with the New England Patriots joining a small group of teams to reach the Big Game with preseason title odds of +8000 or longer.
The Seattle Seahawks were no more than outsiders, too. Their win total was projected as 8.5. This most unlikely of duels provides betting angles aplenty, starting with our Patriots vs Seahawks pick.
On this occasion, player props are our main focus.
Sam Darnold Over 19.5 Pass Completions (-130)
Sam Darnold has gone over this line in five of the last seven games. Seattle had the second-lowest pass play frequency in the NFL regular season, but Darnold threw the ball 36 times in the NFC Championship Game.
Justin Herbert, with a depleted offensive line, completed 19 passes against this Patriots defense. C.J. Stroud had 20 completions. We can write off Jarrett Stidham’s showing in the blizzard.
Gamescript might lead to the Seahawks running the ball a lot. Even so, this line feels on the low side of how accurate Darnold has been this season.
Drake Maye Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-114)
Yes, Drake Maye has gone under this line in the last five games. Does that mean it’s a bad wager? No, it does not.
New England’s running game has been unreliable all year. Seattle is the NFL’s best run defense. The Patriots must have an effective passing game to keep pace with this Seahawks offense, and that means Maye making plays he did in his MVP-contending regular season.
Seattle is rightly seen as a clear favorite for the Super Bowl. To justify this Super Bowl pick, note that New England is likely to be trailing for periods of the game, so it’s inevitable Mike Vrabel will put the ball in Maye’s hands.
AJ Barner Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
This feels like a big game for AJ Barner. New England was in the bottom half of the league in receptions and yards conceded to tight ends.
Seattle has ensured Darnold has mixed up his targets in this postseason. Defenses cannot just lock in on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rashid Shaheed, and it’s clear Darnold trusts his lesser-known receivers on important downs.
Kept quiet over the last three games, Barner went over this line in the prior five outings. He averaged 30.5 receiving yards per game during the regular season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8+ Receptions (+120)
Smith-Njigba has had eight or more receptions in 11 out of 19 games this season across the regular season and playoffs. He had 10 catches on 12 targets against the Los Angeles Rams.
With by far the greatest target share in the NFL, Smith-Njigba has been able to get open regardless of his matchup and the opponent’s scheme. This Patriots team saw opposing quarterbacks complete more than 66% of their passes in the regular season and ranked 20th in passes defended.
Smart playcalling combined with Smith-Njigba’s route-running abilities means he’s going to put up big numbers in the Super Bowl.
Mack Hollins Over 2.5 Receptions (-102)
Mack Hollins has grabbed three or more passes in five of his last seven games. It’s generous of FanDuel to give us a -102 price in this market.
Returning from injury, he caught both of his targets for 51 yards in Denver. His 60.9% snap count can partly be attributed to the Patriots leaning on the running game in the second half.
It was Hollins’ lowest snap count percentage since Week 6. There’s every chance he’s on the field for 70% or more of offensive snaps in the Super Bowl. We wouldn’t be surprised if he went over this line in the first quarter.
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
If we believe the Patriots will lean on the passing game, it makes sense to go under Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards. Stevenson has cleared this line in four consecutive games, but none of those teams have been as good against the run as Seattle.
The Seahawks were by far the best run defense per EPA in the regular season. Kyren Williams was held to 39 yards on 10 carries last week after Christian McCaffrey had 35 yards on 11 carries.
PFF ranks Stevenson 31st out of 55 qualifying running backs in 2025. As New England looks to mix up its offense, he will also be used in the passing game, which will help to keep his rushing total low.
Drake Maye Over 6.5 Rushing Attempts (-138)
Maye has averaged eight rushing attempts per game during the playoffs. He’s gone over this line in two of the three games and posted 65 rushing yards in New England’s win over the Denver Broncos.
Season-long numbers aren’t that informative for this prop. The Pats didn’t want Maye to put his body on the line, and they didn’t need him to with how effective he was a passer.
It’s obviously a very different approach in the Super Bowl. We saw Maye take off to secure a place in the Big Game and scrambling will be a necessity against this Seattle defense.
