How Tanking Teams Impact Betting Decisions in the NBA
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
At one stage earlier this month, the NBA’s seven worst teams had a combined 40-game losing streak. Eight teams are focused almost exclusively on improving their lottery odds.
This inevitably impacts how bettors look at night-to-night NBA game lines and futures markets. Tanking teams are regularly giving their starters nights off or pulling them early from games. There are ‘injuries’ cropping up across the league.
A team’s remaining strength of schedule is more important than ever for win total, division, and other futures bets. With a stacked draft class coming up, front offices have been aggressive in their tanking efforts, and it’s led to almost a third of the league giving up on this season prematurely.
Eight-Team Tanking Group
Those teams are the Wizards, Nets, Pacers, Bulls, Grizzlies, Jazz, Mavericks, and Kings. Any franchise outside of this group can pencil in a win whenever they take on one of this eight-team tanking machine.
As a result, there are some massive spreads when these teams are involved. Some of these teams were downright bad before they switched to tank mode, while others have sent players for season-ending procedures or are carefully managing the workload of players that can accidentally win them games.
Among this group, Domantas Sabonis, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkić, Anthony Davis, and Tyrese Haliburton are ruled out of the remainder of the season. Other veterans are bound to follow in the weeks coming, making it even less likely that these teams win games and weaken their oh-so-precious lottery odds.
Another team could be added to this group in the weeks to come. When the Bucks accept they aren’t making the playoffs, they should sit Giannis Antetokounmpo and try to enhance their lottery odds.
Walk Over Games
The contrast between facing teams in contention and the army of tankers has never been greater. Cleveland, for instance, has seven games remaining against the aforementioned octet. The Cavs also face the Pelicans, Magic, and Heat for a total of five games.
Boston is four games ahead of the Cavaliers in the loss column and has welcomed Jayson Tatum back, but they only have three games against the lose-at-all-costs octet.
Teams with fewer games against tanking opposition have their work cut out down the stretch. It’s going to be harder to keep pace with teams like Cleveland, plus they will have to exert themselves much harder each night. There are seven wins on the schedule for the Cavs that should be collected without getting out of second gear.
Interpreting Schedule
It’s not as simple as looking at strength of schedule metrics or average record of opponents to come. Teams like Denver, for example, have a very hard schedule by their average opponent winning percentage, but they also have seven games against tankers.
At this stage of the year, futures bets need to consider what each team has to play for. Teams might be facing the Thunder or Pistons when they’ve sewn up the top seed. Perhaps they take on the Raptors when they’ve got very little to fight for.
Down the stretch, the teams playing hardest could be those in and just above the play-in. Philadelphia is going to be desperate to avoid the play-in. The same goes for the Lakers and Nuggets.
Betting Impact
On a nightly basis, surveying injury reports and news from beat writers is even more important than usual. Tanking teams give players a night off out of nowhere and any murmur of a niggle can be used to limit their minutes.
Look into rotation and minutes patterns. Utah, for instance, stopped playing their key players in the fourth quarter of games. Does it become worth betting on a team to cover the first-half spread but lose the game?
Perhaps a coach is funnelling the offense to a young player in the name of development. Brooklyn are entrusting their rookies, lessening Michael Porter Jr.’s role in the offense and his overall effectiveness. Keep that in mind when looking at Porter’s props.
For futures, work from a team’s current win total plus their games against the tankers and go from there. In the awards markets, consider how many minutes Cooper Flagg may play across the rest of the season compared with Kon Knueppel on the contending Hornets.
The presence of tanking raises major questions for the NBA and it sounds like change is on the way. For now, it’s part of the league and something bettors need to carefully consider.
