Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs Prediction & Picks - NCAA

USA - NCAA

Florida State Seminoles
9/7/26 19:30
SMU Mustangs

Prediction:

 

SMU Mustangs ML

-162
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 by Matt Lowrimore | in NCAA Picks

The Week 1 College Football slate concludes on Monday night with a game featuring the SMU Mustangs and the Florida State Seminoles. Let’s take a look at the match statistics and predictions for this game between the Mustangs and the Seminoles.

Florida State enters this game with a record of 1-0, as they are one of the few teams to have played in Week 0. To this point, the Seminoles won in Week 0 against New Mexico State, beating them by a score of 34-17. Overall, Florida State did not have too much trouble against the Aggies, but failed to cover the spread and allowed New Mexico State to get within 10 points in the fourth quarter before ultimately pulling away. 

As for SMU, they enter this game having finished with a record of 9-4 in 2025-2026. The Mustangs were very competitive in the ACC, but a few untimely losses kept them out of the ACC Championship. That said, SMU ended its season with a win against Arizona in the Holiday Bowl.

Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs Form

Florida State Seminoles and SMU Mustangs Latest Matches

Florida State Seminoles
Florida State Seminoles Latest matches
W L W L L W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Aug 29, 2026 - NCAA

Florida State Seminoles
34 :  17
New Mexico State Aggies

Nov 29, 2025 - NCAA

Florida Gators
40 :  21
Florida State Seminoles

Nov 21, 2025 - NCAA

NC State Wolfpack
21 :  11
Florida State Seminoles

Nov 15, 2025 - NCAA

Florida State Seminoles
34 :  14
Virginia Tech Hokies

Nov 8, 2025 - NCAA

Clemson Tigers
24 :  10
Florida State Seminoles

Nov 1, 2025 - NCAA

Florida State Seminoles
42 :  7
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
W L L W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Aug 29, 2026 - NCAA

Florida State Seminoles
34 :  17
New Mexico State Aggies

Nov 15, 2025 - NCAA

Florida State Seminoles
34 :  14
Virginia Tech Hokies

Nov 1, 2025 - NCAA

Florida State Seminoles
42 :  7
Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Oct 11, 2025 - NCAA

Florida State Seminoles
31 :  34
Pittsburgh Panthers

Oct 4, 2025 - NCAA

Florida State Seminoles
22 :  28
Miami Hurricanes

Sep 20, 2025 - NCAA

Florida State Seminoles
66 :  10
Kent State Golden Flashes
L L L L L L
Victories

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

6/6 (100%)

Nov 29, 2025 - NCAA

Florida Gators
40 :  21
Florida State Seminoles

Nov 21, 2025 - NCAA

NC State Wolfpack
21 :  11
Florida State Seminoles

Nov 8, 2025 - NCAA

Clemson Tigers
24 :  10
Florida State Seminoles

Oct 18, 2025 - NCAA

Stanford Cardinal
20 :  13
Florida State Seminoles

Sep 26, 2025 - NCAA

Virginia Cavaliers
46 :  38
Florida State Seminoles

Aug 24, 2024 - NCAA

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
24 :  21
Florida State Seminoles
SMU Mustangs
SMU Mustangs Latest matches
L W W W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Jan 2, 2026 - NCAA Division I, FBS, Playoffs

SMU Mustangs
24 :  19
Arizona Wildcats

Nov 29, 2025 - NCAA

California Golden Bears
38 :  35
SMU Mustangs

Nov 22, 2025 - NCAA

SMU Mustangs
38 :  6
Louisville Cardinals

Nov 8, 2025 - NCAA

Boston College Eagles
13 :  45
SMU Mustangs

Nov 1, 2025 - NCAA

SMU Mustangs
26 :  20
Miami Hurricanes

Oct 25, 2025 - NCAA

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
13 :  12
SMU Mustangs
L W W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Jan 2, 2026 - NCAA Division I, FBS, Playoffs

SMU Mustangs
24 :  19
Arizona Wildcats

Nov 22, 2025 - NCAA

SMU Mustangs
38 :  6
Louisville Cardinals

Nov 1, 2025 - NCAA

SMU Mustangs
26 :  20
Miami Hurricanes

Oct 11, 2025 - NCAA

SMU Mustangs
34 :  10
Stanford Cardinal

Oct 4, 2025 - NCAA

SMU Mustangs
31 :  18
Syracuse Orange

Sep 6, 2025 - NCAA

SMU Mustangs
45 :  48
Baylor Bears
W L W L W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Nov 29, 2025 - NCAA

California Golden Bears
38 :  35
SMU Mustangs

Nov 8, 2025 - NCAA

Boston College Eagles
13 :  45
SMU Mustangs

Oct 25, 2025 - NCAA

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
13 :  12
SMU Mustangs

Oct 18, 2025 - NCAA

Clemson Tigers
24 :  35
SMU Mustangs

Sep 20, 2025 - NCAA

TCU Horned Frogs
35 :  24
SMU Mustangs

Sep 13, 2025 - NCAA

Missouri State Bears
10 :  28
SMU Mustangs
Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs Picks

Florida State Seminoles - SMU Mustangs Key Points

  1. SMU averaged 32.2 points per game in 2025-2026
  2. SMU allowed an average of 20.5 points per game in 2025-2026
  3. Florida State is averaging 34.0 points per game this season
  4. Florida State is allowing 17.0 points per game this season

Our Florida State Seminoles vs SMU Mustangs Prediction

While the Seminoles already have a win under their belt this season, the Mustangs are the small favorite and look to be the best betting option. SMU was a strong offensive team last season, averaging 32.2 points per game. Further, the Mustangs were also solid defensively, allowing an average of 20.5 points per game. 

Further, these teams last met in the 2024-2025 season, a game where SMU beat Florida State by a score of 42-16. That result is unlikely to happen here, but the Mustangs still look to be the stronger team. For that reason and until Florida State shows they can beat a competent team, our SMU Mustangs vs Florida State Seminoles prediction is: SMU Mustangs ML.

Prediction:

 

SMU Mustangs ML

-162
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.