Western Conference Finals Game 7: Key Factors & Player Props
by Sam Cox
Saturday brings the highest stakes game of the NBA playoffs to date. The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, aiming to break the NBA’s back-to-back drought, are hosting the San Antonio Spurs in a Game 7 with a place in the NBA Finals on the line.
Making NBA picks for a Game 7 is an almost impossible task. Historically, home advantage has been pivotal, but that’s become less of a factor in recent years. These teams can only be separated by three points through the first six games of the series.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is chasing a spot in the exclusive club of consecutive regular-season and Finals MVPs. Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs are aiming to make their own history as the youngest starting lineup to reach the NBA Finals.
Key Factors
3-Point Shooting
Sure, it might seem reductive, but each of the last four games have seen the team with the higher 3-point percentage take the win. On three occasions, a team has lost the game after shooting less than 30% from beyond the arc. You have to venture back to Games 1 and 2 for the last time a team was outshot from deep and won the game.
San Antonio has only taken 15 more 3s than Oklahoma City across the series to date. It’s not impossible for a team to win with a lower 3-point percentage, but a cold shooting night can completely derail a team’s chances in a Game 7.
Rebounding Wars
San Antonio has a significant lead in the series rebounding aggregate. They also won the rebound race by 10 in Game 6. Extra possessions are a killer for the Thunder’s defense, as it so often results in Wembanyama getting an easy bucket in the paint.
Sure, it’s not exactly groundbreaking to say 3-point shooting and rebounding matter, but extra possessions have consistently been a factor in this series. The Thunder have fluctuated Isaiah Hartenstein’s minutes throughout the six games, and the Spurs’ strongest lineups are small at the forward spots.
What Does Dylan Harper Have Left?
Dylan Harper averaged a shade under 15 points per game in the second round and delivered 24 points in Game 1 of this series. An abductor issue kept him quiet between Games 3 and 6, but he was back with a bang in Game 6.
San Antonio is almost impossible to contain on offense when Harper is scoring 18+ points. Draining outside shots makes it easier to play him 24+ minutes and his rebounding is sneakily very valuable.
Player Props
Comparing the early odds with the stats on hand from the other 6 games of this series, the following player props stood out to us. Have a look:
Dylan Harper 4+ Rebounds (-154)
Playoff games with 4+ rebounds: 12. Playoff games with less than four rebounds: 5.
It’s not as simple as saying Harper is a lock to have four or more boards on Saturday, but these odds seem very generous considering how consistently he’s rebounded the ball in the early stages of his NBA career.
There’s going to be opportunities to sneak in for defensive boards with the Thunder desperate to stop the Spurs from getting out in transition (San Antonio was an elite transition offense in the regular season and has maintained that pace in the playoffs).
Victor Wembanyama Under 15.5 Rebounds and Assists (+104)
Wembanyama has gone comfortably under this line in each of the last four games. For the series, he’s averaging 14.8 rebounds and assists per game, but that number is significantly inflated by posting 50 combined rebounds and assists across Games 1 and 2.
The Frenchman has only gone over this line seven times in 16 postseason games. Yes, his minutes should spike in a Game 7, but the Thunder should be throwing multiple bodies on Wembanyama to stop the easy offensive boards, and his playmaking duties have waned as the series has gone on.
Jared McCain Over 12.5 Points (-102)
Jared McCain has gone over this line in both games since being brought into the starting lineup. McCain had 24 off the bench in Game 3 and has been a dangerous outside shooter (38.1%) throughout this postseason.
Taking double-digit shots in each of the last five games, it’s safe to say McCain isn’t afraid of the big moments. He’s going to get his shots up and there will be even more emphasis on McCain offensively if Jalen Williams isn’t able to go.
