What's at Stake as NBA Season Draws to a Close?
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Less than two weeks remain in the 2025-26 NBA regular season. The play-in tournament has helped to ensure there is still plenty to play for across the league beyond the usual jostling for seedings.
This season has been a bizarre one. From Chris Paul being waived to Anthony Davis and Trae Young ending up on the Washington Wizards, it’s been a season defined by chaos, even by the NBA’s high standards for drama.
In the background, there’s a looming scandal in Los Angeles and potential reform to quell tanking, along with legitimate movement towards a pair of expansion teams.
Our focus here is what’s happening on the court, though, so here’s what remains at stake:
Race to Avoid OKC
This isn’t about the play-in. This is focusing on the second round and the unfortunate matchup of the Oklahoma City Thunder for whichever team progresses from the four-five matchup in the Western Conference.
It’s not like the San Antonio Spurs are a favorable second-round opponent for teams in the three-six series, but the unproven Spurs are surely more likely to suffer a second-round upset than the Thunder. OKC has been at its imperious best over the last few weeks, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing at an all-time great level.
As it stands, the Nuggets or Timberwolves would meet the Thunder in the second round. Neither team will be running scared of a potential duel with the defending champions, but both teams would likely prefer catching the Lakers for third or slipping to sixth.
East’s Final Automatic Spot
The fifth-seeded Raptors are three games ahead of the eighth-seeded Magic in the loss column. Orlando is unlikely to overturn that deficit in a two-week period, but it’s not out of the question that the 41-34 Sixers catch the Raptors and the 39-35 Magic overturn a two-game deficit to the sixth-seeded Hawks.
There are going to be twists and turns aplenty as these four teams battle it out for the five and six spots in the East. The impact on the entire Eastern Conference is significant, with the four seed currently looking pretty desirable with the Raptors as first-round opponents.
Currently in third, the Knicks wouldn’t relish a first-round series with the high-ceiling Sixers. If Philly somehow climbs to fifth, how much more daunting does Cleveland’s playoff path become?
Tight East Play-In Contest
Tied to the race to avoid the play-in is the two-loss gap between the Sixers in sixth and the Hornets in 10th. Philly’s win over Charlotte left the Hornets on the back foot, potentially needing to win two play-in games on the road to reach the playoffs for the first time in a decade.
Very few games are left between the six teams between fifth and 10th. Miami faces the Raptors twice and the Hawks once. Charlotte and Atlanta have challenging remaining schedules.
This promises to be the most exciting play-in tournament yet. Missing the playoffs would be a disappointment for any of the six teams, but particularly devastating for the Raptors, Sixers, or Magic.
Given how closely matched these teams are, and with most playing at a high level since the All-Star break, it’s a huge ask to win consecutive play-in games, making the seven and eight seeds even more valuable than usual.
Lottery Odds
One loss separates the Grizzlies, Pelicans, and Mavericks in the standings. New Orleans is still trying to win to limit the damage by trading its first-round pick to the Hawks, while the Grizzlies and Mavericks are fighting to have the sixth-worst record in the NBA.
Indiana and Washington are tied for the league’s worst record at the time of writing. Finishing with the worst record means a worst-case scenario of picking fifth in this summer’s loaded draft (Indiana would lose its pick in this situation but will keep it if they land in the top four).
Utah doesn’t look likely to climb any higher than having the fourth-worst record, though no one can put it past the Kings that they will accidentally win multiple games down the stretch and damage their lottery odds.
The Jazz have done all they can – including taking some punishments from the league – to ensure they keep their top eight protected pick.
