EPL Midweek Goal Scorer Picks
by Sam Cox | by Sam Cox
The midweek EPL slate doesn't just have to be about BTTS bets and moneyline picks. Our focus this week is on the goal scorer markets.
From in-form teams meeting on the south coast and Liverpool's trip to Wolves, Tuesday starts us off with some tantalizing duels. Wednesday sees a key contest in the race for a top five spot as Aston Villa host Chelsea and struggling Newcastle welcome Manchester United, who have the best record in the Premier League since Michael Carrick replaced Ruben Amorim.
Here are the best goal scorer bets for the midweek Premier League fixtures:
João Pedro To Score Anytime (+185)
Only two players have scored more Premier League goals than João Pedro in 2025-26. Just three players – one of which is Cole Palmer – have amassed more expected goals per 90 minutes since the turn of the year (of players to play 300+ minutes in that period).
Aston Villa have strong underlying defensive numbers of late, but their confidence is low following a run of one win in five league matches. They conceded two goals to Wolves on Friday night.
Pedro found the net in five of his last seven Premier League outings. He's taken 14 shots across Chelsea's last three matches.
Igor Thiago To Score Anytime (+110)
After scoring only once in his previous six matches, Igor Thiago got back on the scoresheet at the weekend. He's the second-highest goal scorer in the Premier League this term and has far more xG than any other Premier League player in 2026.
Bournemouth have conceded the most goals of any team in the top 14 of the Premier League. They have just one clean sheet in their last four league matches.
Outside of Erling Haaland, Thiago has been far and away the most prolific striker in the Premier League this term. Goals are expected between the Cherries and Bees – Thiago is a great bet to find the net at +110.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin To Score First (+390)
This wager is partly about fading a Sunderland team that's horribly out of form. The Black Cats have conceded the second-most xG in 2026 and have picked up only four points from their last nine away matches.
Leeds are in the top half in xG generated this year. Thiago, Pedro, Hugo Ekitike, and Benjamin Šeško are the only players with more non-penalty expected goals than Dominic Calvert-Lewin in 2026, despite the former Everton man scoring just two goals since he scored at the Stadium of Light on Dec. 28.
It's safe to say Calvert-Lewin is due in front of goal. He's taken nine shots over his last three matches and looks great value to get Leeds off to a strong start on Tuesday night.
Bruno Fernandes To Score Or Assist (-105)
Haaland is the only player with more goal involvements than Bruno Fernandes. Fernandes is averaging 0.88 non-penalty expected goal contributions per 90 minutes this calendar year, which is the third-highest mark of players to have played 300 or more minutes.
Newcastle are in the bottom half in xG allowed in 2026 and have conceded 18 goals in nine matches. They are on their worst run since Eddie Howe took charge.
Over his last 12 games in all competitions, Fernandes has provided at least one goal contribution on nine occasions. He should have a lot of fun against this Newcastle defense.
Valentin Castellanos To Score Or Assist (+155)
Valentín Castellanos has quietly been impactful for West Ham. His underlying numbers as a shot taker and chance creator are strong and he scored his second goal for the Hammers in the defeat to Liverpool at the weekend.
Across Serie A and the Premier League, the Argentina has played just over 1,300 minutes for seven goal involvements. It's nothing to get too excited about, but it's notable he's ahead of Cole Palmer, Jarrod Bowen, and Anthony Gordon in non-penalty expected goal contributions per 90 minutes since his Premier League debut.
West Ham are facing a Fulham side that are far from unbeatable, despite their strong league position. The west London side have mediocre underlying numbers this season.
