Best Player Prop Bets For Week 5 of the NFL Season
by Sam Cox
Week 5 of the NFL season might not be the most tantalizing schedule on first glance. There’s still bound to be plenty of entertaining games, though, and there are numerous betting opportunities in the player props markets.
We are avoiding Thursday Night Football and the London game in this week’s NFL picks, with our focus solely on Redzone action.
Bo Nix Under 218.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Philadelphia Eagles have defended the second-most passes – their secondary has shut down opposing receivers every single week.
Bo Nix has only cleared this line once in four games, and even with the league’s best offensive line, is going to face pressure from this Eagles defensive line.
The game script could point bettors towards the over. Philadelphia is likely to have a lead, which could result in a surge in fourth quarter passing yards from Nix, but Denver should lean on its run game with Philadelphia’s mediocre numbers defending on the ground so far this year.
Jaxson Dart Under 26.5 Passing Attempts (+105)
He admittedly missed a few snaps, but Jaxson Dart only threw the ball 20 times in his first NFL start. Dart was more dangerous with his legs, averaging 5.4 yards per carry on 10 rushes.
With no Malik Nabers, the New York Giants are bound to lean more heavily on their ground game. Watch out for lots of RPOs, designed runs, and scrambles from Dart if their receivers don’t get open.
New York is in the top 10 in rushing play frequency over the last three weeks. New Orleans is a good run defense, but only five teams have been rushed against more frequently.
Justin Fields Anytime Touchdown (+130)
Only two teams have conceded more rushing touchdowns than the Dallas Cowboys. Justin Fields has three rushing scores in his first three appearances this season and has cashed this bet in two of his three outings.
Dallas is in the bottom 10 in opponent redzone scoring percentage. Opposing teams get to the red zone 4.3 times per game, which is the third-highest mark in the NFL.
This New York Jets offense has been up and down so far this season, but there’s no question Fields can use his legs against this Cowboys defense when they inevitably get into the red zone. There will be opportunities aplenty for this to land.
Jake Ferguson 6+ Receptions (+116)
The Jets are a middling defense against tight ends. Jake Ferguson has the fourth-most targets in the league, and four more than any other tight end.
CeeDee Lamb is out of his walking boot and reportedly began rehab week. Week 5 might still come too soon for the star wideout, and if it doesn’t, his usage will surely be limited.
That leads to Ferguson being Dak Prescott’s primary target (he was still targeted relentlessly when Lamb was healthy).
Ferguson has cleared this line in each of the last three games, going 7, 13, and 9 in receptions. He’s been targeted 33 times over that period. Dallas has one the highest passing play frequencies in the league.
Kyler Murray Over 21.5 Completions (-127)
Just five teams have conceded a higher pass completion rate than the Tennessee Titans. Kyler Murray has thrown the ball more frequently in the last two weeks, including 27 completions on 41 attempts in Week 4.
The Titans are near the bottom of the league in pressure rate. They are also in the bottom 10 in passes defended.
With Trey Benson joining James Conner on injured reserve, the Arizona Cardinals are going to rely on their passing game. Marvin Harrison Jr. made a step forward in Week 4. Trey McBride has been almost impossible to cover.
