Best Player Prop Bets For Week 4 of the NFL Season
by Sam Cox
Hitting two out of five player props was a decent return from Week 3, considering one of those wins was a +178 shot on Drake Maye’s passing yards. Week 4 presents plenty of other value betting opportunities as we make our NFL picks.
The week kicks off with the high-octane Seattle Seahawks in Arizona on Thursday night before the Minnesota Vikings face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Dublin on Sunday. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Philadelphia Eagles and the Baltimore Ravens facing the Kansas City Chiefs are the other standout games on Sunday’s slate.
As ever, all bets come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jaxson Dart Over 188.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Just eight teams have missed more tackles than the Los Angeles Chargers. Los Angeles is in the top 10 in pressure rate and ranks among the leaders in adjusted yards per attempt, but we are riding the Jaxson Dart hype train.
Dart excelled across just over a game’s worth of snaps in preseason. He’s going to be trusted to air it out, and we’ve seen Russell Wilson put up 450 passing yards in this offense.
There are problems with the New York Giants’ offensive line, most notably at center and left guard, but this line is very low for a player with Dart’s talent and receiving options like Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-132)
Only seven teams rush the ball more frequently than the Detroit Lions. Detroit is facing a Cleveland Browns team with an elite rush defense so far this year, but the Lions should have no trouble building an early lead with their passing game.
The game script plays to Jahmyr Gibbs getting a heavy workload, just as he did with 22 carries in Week 3. The star back averaged 14.7 rushing attempts per game last season and has seen his snap count increase by eight percentage points from 2024 to 2025.
These odds aren’t what we’d usually like to see, but this prop is worth backing even if the line moves to 14.5.
Emeka Egbuka To Score A Touchdown (+175)
Tampa Bay’s rookie wideout has three touchdowns in the first three weeks of the regular season. Week 3 was his first game without a score in the pros, but he still put up 85 receiving yards on eight targets.
Mike Evans is out for several weeks with a hamstring injury. Egbuka becomes to the clear WR1 for Baker Mayfield, with the pair already striking up considerable chemistry.
Mayfield has built on what was a brilliant 2024 season and has made full use of the receiving talent at his disposal. Even against a talented Eagles defense, we fancy the former first overall pick to find Egbuka in the redzone.
Drake Maye Over 208.5 Passing Yards (-114)
How bad is the Carolina Panthers’ pass rush? Well, they have one sack and by far the lowest pressure rate in the NFL so far.
Drake Maye has cleared this line in all three games this season. His pass completion percentage has leapt from 66.2% last season to 72.6% through the first three weeks of this campaign, and the New England Patriots’ offensive line is trending in the right direction.
Per PFF, New England allowed only 10 pressures to a ferocious Pittsburgh Steelers’ pass rush last week. Maye is capable of dissecting defenses when he’s got time in the pocket, and he should have plenty of it with his O-line blocking an ineffective Panthers pass rush.
Geno Smith Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (+100)
This game has the makings of a shootout. Geno Smith’s Las Vegas Raiders run pass plays at the fifth-highest frequency – Smith averages 35.3 pass attempts per game so far this season.
The Chicago Bears have been one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Both teams are going to look to get the ball downfield in the air, and Las Vegas hasn’t been afraid to leave Smith to make plays, with Ashton Jeanty yet to take over on the ground.
This is a good prop to pair with the over if you’re looking at a same-game parlay. Smith and Caleb Williams will be looking to put up 30+ points.
