Best Player Prop Bets For Week 15 of the NFL Season
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Week 14 was a big one for our NFL player props, with four out of five picks landing. It’s easy to forget about the duds at this time of year, like the Commanders facing the Giants, but it’s worth remembering every game has some player prop value if you delve deep enough.
Week 15 is no exception. For all the blockbuster picks in the divisional showdown between the Bills and Patriots, there are less glamorous bets to be made in New Orleans, Houston, and Jacksonville.
Nico Collins Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Nico Collins has gone over this line in five of the last six games. His receptions have fluctuated in recent weeks, but he’s a constant big-play threat for this Texans offense.
Despite grabbing only nine catches across the last two games, Collins has been targeted 18 times. Just 10 players can better Collins’ mark of 15 yards per reception.
After some struggles earlier in the season, C.J. Stroud is looking much more comfortable passing from the pocket or on the move. Houston’s offense has been functional enough to beat the Chiefs and Colts – facing a mediocre Cardinals defense, this is an opportunity for Collins to post another high receiving yards total.
Trevor Lawrence Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-114)
Trevor Lawrence has had 30 or fewer pass attempts in five consecutive games. The Jets are in the bottom six in opponent pass frequency, largely due to the gamescript.
Even in the Jets’ blowout loss to the Dolphins last week, Tua Tagovailoa only threw the ball 21 times. Jacksonville is in the bottom 10 in pass play frequency at home this season.
Travis Etienne’s success on the ground, including 74 yards in Week 14, has reduced the Jags’ dependency on Lawrence. The Jets were destroyed by Miami’s rushing game last time out, so it’s fair to expect the Jags to lean heavily on Etienne.
Drake Maye Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-108)
Drake Maye had 22 completions when the Patriots beat the Bills in Week 5. New England has won eight straight games since then, with Maye comfortably hitting this over in each of the last three.
Buffalo is in the bottom 10 in passes defend. The Pats are in the bottom five in EPA per run – they are reliant on Maye putting up big numbers to be able to keep pace with Josh Allen and this Bills offense.
Allen put in a vintage performance in Week 14, carrying Buffalo to a crucial win. This is a showdown in the AFC East that has the makings of a regular-season classic with two elite quarterbacks going head-to-head.
Derrick Henry Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-118)
No team concedes more rushing yards per game than the Bengals. Only the Giants and Cowboys have a worse EPA per play against the run than Cincinnati.
Derrick Henry has had at least 18 rushing attempts in seven of his last eight games. The future Hall of Famer is coming off 94 yards on 25 rushing attempts – why would Baltimore reduce his workload against the worst rush defense in the NFL?
There’s no guarantee the Ravens will hold a lead in this game, but that didn’t stop them handing the ball off to Henry 25 times last week. The Bills and Seahawks are the only teams with a higher run play frequency.
Wan’Dale Robinson Over 5.5 Receptions (+118)
Wan’Dale Robinson has hit this over in four of the last five games. Washington has the sixth-lowest opponent completion percentage and ranks 22nd in passes defended.
The Commanders have the worst EPA against the pass. Robinson is 12th in target share this season and has been targeted 9.2 times per game since Malik Nabers suffered a season-ending injury in Week 4.
Jaxson Dart has been accurate across his last three games. Robinson is the clear top target. This line seems at least one reception too low.
