Best Player Prop Bets For Week 14 of the NFL Season
by Sam Cox
Week 13 was tricky for bettors. We had a couple of successes with our player props, though, and we've got plenty of confidence about our selections for Week 14.
The New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, and New York Giants are on a bye.
There are still plenty of games to get stuck into from a betting perspective, including an NFC North clash between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears, and a must-win game for the Kansas City Chiefs against the Houston Texans.
Zach Charbonnet Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Only four teams have a worse EPA against the run than the Atlanta Falcons. Zach Charbonnet has had 35 or more rushing yards in four straight games, going over this line three times in that span.
He had a season-low six carries in the one game he went under this line. On that occasion, he still had 35 yards on the ground, so this number seems on the low side.
Sure, the way the Seattle Seahawks have divided their carries has made things difficult for bettors and fantasy managers alike, but the gamescript is going to favor Seattle's running game here.
Tyler Shough Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-128)
Tyler Shough has thrown the ball 81 times over the last two games. The New Orleans Saints are sixth in pass play frequency on the season, a natural consequence of trailing for the majority of their games.
Shough has completed 56 passes over his last two outings, clearing this line with room to spare on both occasions.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the bottom 10 in pressure rate and opponent pass completion percentage. They are below average in EPA against the pass.
Daniel Jones Under 231.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Daniel Jones has gone under this line by a significant margin in the last two weeks. Playing through a fibula fracture, Jones' mobility is severely limited and he can't get the same stable base to make down-field throws.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are third in EPA allowed to the pass. Only one team has defended more passes, and the Jags are in the top 10 in hurry rate. It's not going to be an easy afternoon for a hobbled Jones.
It's clear Jones isn't as effective as he was earlier in the season. The injury is impacting him. Jacksonville is a difficult matchup even for healthy quarterbacks.
Derrick Henry Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-114)
Look for the Baltimore Ravens to run the ball down the throats of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is sixth worst in EPA per opponent run play and has missed the third-most tackles this season.
After a slow start to the season by his Hall of Fame standards, Henry has hit this over in five of his last seven games. Baltimore will look to hammer home its authority if it takes the lead by pounding the front seven of the Steelers with Henry.
A 40% snap count in last week's loss looks to be working in our favor here by dragging the line down by a couple of carries. It was the first time since Week 5 that Henry got fewer than 30 offensive snaps.
Josh Allen Over 234.5 Passing Yards (-114)
With the second-worst pass defense in the NFL by EPA per play and having conceded the fourth-most passing yards, there's no way the Cincinnati Bengals can keep Josh Allen under wraps on Sunday.
Allen was held to 123 yards last week, but much of that is down to gamescript. He had cleared this line in the previous four games.
With Joe Burrow healthy, the Bengals' best hope of a surprise win is forcing this into a shootout. The Buffalo Bills won't necessarily be able to keep Cincy quiet, so both quarterbacks should post big numbers (Burrow and Allen to have 275+ passing yards each is +498).