Arsenal vs Liverpool: Gunners Looking to Shoot the Reds Down
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
What happened in the reverse fixture?
Back in August, it was the current EPL champions who edged ahead, with Arne Slot’s men scoring the only goal of the contest through Dominik Szoboszlai, who fired in from long range.
When the teams met earlier in the season, there really was little between the pair, so much so that it was absolutely fitting that a high-quality strike from range decided things. In that Anfield clash, it was clear that the pair cancelled each other out, and more than just a little, with neither side creating much.
The Gunners recorded only 0.49 expected goals, registering only one shot on target. Meanwhile, the Reds posted just 0.53 expected goals, registering only three shots on target. Low-key stuff indeed.
Lots has changed since August
Back in August, when the two teams played out something of a cat-and-mouse affair at Anfield, it looked as though they may go toe-to-toe in the race for the EPL title, but in the months that have followed, that’s not happened.
While the Gunners have got stronger and stronger, winning with regularity, performing like a team that is desperate to get over the line first in the title race, the Reds have floundered, struggling massively to be consistent, defending like anything but a title-winning team.
Interestingly, Mikel Arteta’s league leaders have not lost at home this season, winning nine out of ten league games. In contrast, Arne Slot’s defending champions have only won four of their ten away games in the EPL, losing four of the other six. While the Gunners have conceded just five goals at home, they’ve shipped 18 on the road. Therein lies the difference.
Play this game right with these player props
Ahead of Thursday’s game at Emirates Stadium, looking at the odds available from our top sportsbooks, there are a few interesting players props. If you’re looking to get involved, try these for size:
Martin Zubimendi to Receive a Card
My first port of call from a player-prop point of view is to take Arsenal’s Martin Zubimendi to get booked at odds of +300. Shown a yellow as the Gunners defeated Bournemouth last time out, Zubimendi is slightly more familiar with getting himself in trouble than the early odds suggest.
Interestingly, no Gunner has lost more tackles than Zubimendi in the EPL this season, while the Spaniard is also very high on Arsenal’s list of most prolific foulers.
Moreover, the midfield destroyer knows all about getting on the wrong side of the referee in games against the strongest opponents, going into the book this season against Atletico Madrid and Chelsea, while he was also booked when the pair met at Anfield earlier in the campaign, making three fouls that day.
Dominik Szoboszlai to Receive a Card
I also can’t quite see why Dominik Szoboszlai is as big +450 to pick up a card in this high-pressure game, so he too goes down as a value bet.
The Hungarian has arguably been Liverpool’s best player this season, delivering a level of consistency that most Reds have struggled to find. However, Szoboszlai has also been one of Liverpool’s biggest rule breakers, especially in the big games.
Recently booked against Spurs, when push has come to shove in the chunkiest fixtures, the 25-year-old has found it difficult to avert the referee’s gaze, earning a fair amount of unwanted attention, picking up cards against Tottenham, Man City, Aston Villa and Chelsea.
Ultimately, in games against the current top six this season, Szoboszlaihas picked up an average of 0.60 cards per 90 minutes, and that simply makes a price of +450 look too generous to ignore. Take the value.
