2025 NBA Finals MVP: Which players are worth backing to win?
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Sportsbooks open their NBA Finals MVP markets before or at the start of the playoffs. FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and the other top sportsbooks present a wide range of odds from the top player on the title favorite down to role players on low seeds.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, for instance, has been the Finals MVP favorite since the market opened. Coming off a 68-win season, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been heavily favored to win the Western Conference, and Gilgeous-Alexander is by far their best player.
Elsewhere, Jayson Tatum has inevitably been among the favorites with the Boston Celtics fancied to defend their title. The New York Knicks taking the first two games at TD Garden saw Jalen Brunson’s odds shortened dramatically.
Here are some high-value picks to win Finals MVP, as of May 12:
Jalen Brunson - +2800 at DraftKings
How is Brunson still out at +2800? The Knicks are 2-1 and playing Game 3 on their home floor. Brunson has consistently delivered when the lights are brightest, dating back to his days with the Dallas Mavericks. In this postseason, he’s already put in some big-time clutch performances and will need to repeat that if the Knicks are to reach, let alone win, the Finals.
These odds are a reflection of a lack of faith in the Knicks. Perhaps that’s fair. They needed late comebacks to win the first two games against the Celtics. Likely facing the Indiana Pacers if they make the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks could struggle to keep pace with Indiana’s high pace and ball movement.
Still, there is no question that Brunson is the Knicks’ best player. He has led his team to a 2-1 series lead over the team that were clear Eastern Conference favorites a few days ago.
Derrick White - +9000 at DraftKings
Tatum and Jaylen Brown have been inconsistent – and that’s being generous – through the first three games of the second round. Boston needs its star wings to step up in a big way if they are to return to the Finals, so their performances to date could be a moot point in this market.
The Celtics’ success has been built on their top-end depth, though, so it’s not far-fetched to imagine them winning another title without Tatum and/or Brown being at their very best. Brown beat Tatum to Finals MVP 12 months ago, after all, and Derrick White has the skillset to play himself into the mix.
White could be matched up with Steph Curry, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Jamal Murray. Since the start of last year’s Conference Finals, the former San Antonio Spur has averaged 16.4 points, 4.2 assists, and 2.6 stocks in the playoffs. It’s within the bounds of possibility that he gets scorching hot from deep and makes 50% of his threes across a series.
If the Celtics defend their title, they are going to need to slow down the opponent’s lead perimeter ball handler and make a lot of outside shots. White will be integral in both of those areas.
Steph Curry - +10000 at FanDuel
With the Golden State Warriors down 2-1 and Curry sidelined through a hamstring injury, there might not be a better time to back the four-time champion for Finals MVP.
Curry could return for Game 5. It sounds like he will be back for Game 6 at the very latest. If Golden State takes one of the games before Curry returns, the Warriors will be in a solid position.
Shooting over 39% from three despite some hostile Houston Rockets defense in the first round, the two-time regular-season MVP showed he’s still capable of stringing together magical performances.
Golden State has as good a chance of beating the Thunder as anyone. They went 2-1 against OKC in the regular season, with the sole loss coming by a narrow margin. If they face the Denver Nuggets, Curry should thrive against their subpar perimeter defense.
With Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green healthy, the Dubs have Finals-winning upside. These odds are an exceptional value given what Curry showed us in the first round.
OG Anunoby - +36000 at FanDuel
If the Knicks reach the Finals, OG Anunoby has a good chance of being matched up with Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, or Butler. Anunoby’s path to winning Finals MVP is similar to that of Andre Iguodala had in 2015 – guard the opponent’s best player, play big minutes, and offer enough on offense to be considered the most valuable player for the eventual champions.
Stifling any of that trio would swing the series in the Knicks’ favor. There’s a risk Mikal Bridges would get more of the reps on Gilgeous-Alexander, which could hamper Anunoby’s chances, but slowing down Butler or Edwards would be in a similar realm to Iguodala’s efforts against LeBron James a decade ago.
